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>adjusting growth projections on the basis of current macroeconomic performance is preferable. Really? The economy is cyclical. It means you will always be beh
by itsoktocry 3y ago
>adjusting growth projections on the basis of current macroeconomic performance is preferable.
Really? The economy is cyclical. It means you will always be behind the curve; predicting high growth when low growth is around the corner, and vice versa. We can see this in reality; how much garbage did they invest in 2020-2022? You're probably better off never changing strategy, kinda like buying a broad based ETF.
Being adaptable is, probably, equally as valuable for strategy. But that's not really "projecting".
>if they have a magic ball for, they can use to make a lot more money than in VC
Forecasting isn't about having a magic 8 ball, it's about assigning probabilities to potential future outcomes.
In 2021 when people where buying monkey jpegs for millions of dollars and stonks were all the rage, would a reasonable person think the future growth prospects were higher or lower in the short term?
- Workaccount2 3y agoNothing you are saying is new to the math PhD's who line the offices of finance companies. But the market still overwhelmingly (but not entirely) prices things on current trends. Practically infinite wealth awaits you if you can figure out how to implement your cyclical trends into profitable investments.
- darkerside 3y agoIf you had that attitude in the 2010s, you are no longer in business. You can't anticipate the next cycle. You need to play the game that's in front of you.