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> If we put more effort into self-driving busses and autonomous trains ... we would see much greater dividends on our investment and far fewer "unintuitive" err
by rdsubhas 3y ago
> If we put more effort into self-driving busses and autonomous trains ... we would see much greater dividends on our investment and far fewer "unintuitive" errors.
Everything you said made sense, except focusing on mass transit for FSD, for two reasons:
The intent of focusing on bus/train automation comes from an illusion of control (we can control the lane/track, thereby) – hence we tend to rudimentarily attribute easy outcomes to it (low risk, high value).
If we ignore the control part and properly think about it – mass transit actually higher risk for lower value.
1. Lower value: For something that involves 100+ people on dense economic centers, it's already running at an economy of scale where a human driver just makes sense. I live in Germany where the metro trains & trams are already crazy automated. There is a human driver there just in case, more as a supervisor for the people riding (controlling hooliganism, jammed doors, helping challenged people, dealing with emergencies, etc). I see German trains as already running on FSD4. FSD5 full automation is a waste of time here. Using buses for last mile coverage for few passengers, aka treating buses as "big taxis" is probably worse environmentally than actual taxis.
2. Higher risk: By the same logic you said for cars – "far fewer unintuitive errors" – at a much higher capacity of mass transit – is far more catastrophic. Imagine a self-driving train had just 1 accident in 10 years, but it affected 1000 people. It's sheer terror. Who is liable for it? Government. The problem with going down this mass-transit-first route is, one error means legislating away the entire sector.
Cars are actually lower risk (individual choice, individual liability, accidents don't deter others from adopting) and higher value (last mile, moving away from the dense urban city plans that come with high rents and chokepoints which are crippling even to my beloved, beautiful German cities where even with all the urban sprawl, last mile is still a problem outside A zones).
- bluGill 3y agoGerman trains are not known for being automated. I'm sure you have some, but not as many as you think. No tram in the world runs crazy automation, they all currently have a human on board. Only grade separated trains run fully automated. There might be some automation on your trains, but it isn't fully automated. Your second point is completely wrong: we have trains, and have been running them for more than 100 years. We have real statistics to show in the real world they are much safer than cars. Sure you can imagine anything you want, but when real science has real data why would anyone look at your imagined data.
- rdsubhas 3y agoI think you got the context of the second point entirely wrong, so it's better to read the comment to which it's replied. As I said before, my entire family are proud, satisfied users of the German metro & public transit system – and we are proudly anti-car. Nothing more to prove when we practice rather than preach. As for the first, it would be worthwhile taking the AI-tinted driverless-only FSD glasses off, and re-read the original comment and response.
- throwaway2037 3y agoI live in Germany where the metro trains & trams are already crazy automated. Where? For example, Berlin has a very large U-bahn and S-bahn network. As I understand, it is not automated (FSD4+). Please correct me if wrong.