I think the confusion here is that you are interpreting the statement as 'since Florida didn't have a major hurricane this year, the chance that they have a maj

I think the confusion here is that you are interpreting the statement as 'since Florida didn't have a major hurricane this year, the chance that they have a major hurricane next year is higher than normal'. This would be inaccurate. What is meant is that since Florida didn't have a major hurricane this year, then next year is likely to be worse than this year, since Florida has a significant chance of being hit by a major hurricane each year.