4 ms·
There is regression toward the mean, so if Florida had an unusually good year, we would expect that next year to be worse then this year.
by greiskul 3y ago
There is regression toward the mean, so if Florida had an unusually good year, we would expect that next year to be worse then this year.
- stavros 3y agoYes but that doesn't really mean much. We always expect it to have, say, 4 hurricanes, so if it had 3, we still expect the same number as always (4). The fact that we didn't have one this year doesn't change next year's expectation.
- sokoloff 3y agoNor does it change the fact that next year's [unchanged] expectation is worse than this year's observation.