I don't have references, but I don't think people are all that good at it. Why else do strongman dictators keep getting into power? Before the whole WW2 and ho

I don't have references, but I don't think people are all that good at it. Why else do strongman dictators keep getting into power? Before the whole WW2 and holocaust thing, Germans really laughed off Hitler. They believed they were too artsy, too cosmopolitan, and just too advanced for a dictator. So my guts tell me we're not great at judging real threats politically.