3 ms·

If you mean “traffic pattern” (from https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/media/pcg_10-12-17.pdf https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/media/pcg_1

If you mean “traffic pattern” (from https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/media/pcg_10-12-17.pdf https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/media/pcg_10-12...), that is also something you would do visually, which I don’t think Lufthansa would accept. As for not being able to give an accurate estimate, that is not for the on-the-radio approach controller to calculate, given their view of the airspace. The video posted by parent shows how long the inbound flows were (at least on the east side); approach wouldn’t have seen that. The coordination necessary to get an accurate estimate should’ve involved managers, which might be affected by the current shortage (see https://www.npr.org/2023/11/09/1211838624/air-traffic-controllers-shortage-close-calls-senate-safety-near-miss-senate https://www.npr.org/2023/11/09/1211838624/air-traffic-contro...).

michael_j_x 3y ago
I meant for the ATC to provide a descent estimate of when Lufthansa should be expected to enter the AERODROME TRAFFIC CIRCUIT (since you want tolink the FAA glossary) in order to land (they had them on a hold pattern for 35+ minutes). This is independent of whether the approach is IFR or VFR. A TOWER controller has all the information necessary to calculate that estimate, and should be expected to do so, the same way a stock trader is expected to calculate PnL of their positions on the fly given the current stock price.
- jcrawfordor 3y ago
  Most of the queue would have been with approach, not tower. The aircraft sequenced to land were split across at least two controllers, tower and approach, and possibly more than one approach controller depending on how SFO splits them up. I would expect approach to be able to provide a reasonable estimate but it seems like in this case the estimate was found to be four minutes off, which seems totally within the bounds of a reasonable estimate from an approach controller. The traffic pattern (US term) isn't really a factor here either way, airliners flying visual still usually use charted routes (like the instrument procedures) or radar vectors rather than the pattern. Remember that the pattern is only about one mile out from the field. By the time airliners are that close they're probably cleared.
  - wtallis 3y ago
    > but it seems like in this case the estimate was found to be four minutes off No, I don't think you are being at all accurate about characterizing that; maybe you lost count of the delays. After being told to wait ten more minutes, the pilots waited an extra four minutes before pressing for an update, and got told to wait another 10-15 (or f off).
- p3n1s 3y ago
  Aerodrome traffic circuit is the ICAO term for traffic pattern, which is it what it is called in the US (it may be in the glossary but the point is that manual uses "traffic pattern" repeatedly). And this "traffic circuit" you refer to is almost always a VFR thing, as IFR approaches use specific charted procedures that generally do not end with a traffic circuit. https://skybrary.aero/articles/aerodrome-traffic-circuit https://skybrary.aero/articles/aerodrome-traffic-circuit
  - ExoticPearTree 3y ago
    Aerodrome traffic pattern is completely different from holding patterns. And this is what LH was instructed to do, keep holding. Holding patterns are published for all airports and usually planes are stacked on those holding patterns and they are emptied FIFO style. Busier airports have multiple holding patterns to accommodate a large number of aircraft in case of on ground emergencies.
    - p3n1s 3y ago
      Sure, but GP stated wrt traffic patterns, "This is independent of whether the approach is IFR or VFR." which is not the case. For IFR, as was the case here, the LH was looking to execute an IFR approach, not ever enter the aerodrome traffic circuit.
kalleboo 3y ago
> that is not for the on-the-radio approach controller to calculate In that case they should not have given an estimate in the first place if it's just made up
- ExoticPearTree 3y ago
  That's why it is called an estimate. It is how much you think it might take, not the exact amount of time. When asked about how long something it is going to take, everyone is given an estimate, not an absolute value. And this is because a lot of things can happen in between that are out of everyone's control.

michael_j_x 3y ago

I meant for the ATC to provide a descent estimate of when Lufthansa should be expected to enter the AERODROME TRAFFIC CIRCUIT (since you want tolink the FAA glossary) in order to land (they had them on a hold pattern for 35+ minutes). This is independent of whether the approach is IFR or VFR. A TOWER controller has all the information necessary to calculate that estimate, and should be expected to do so, the same way a stock trader is expected to calculate PnL of their positions on the fly given the current stock price.

jcrawfordor 3y ago
Most of the queue would have been with approach, not tower. The aircraft sequenced to land were split across at least two controllers, tower and approach, and possibly more than one approach controller depending on how SFO splits them up. I would expect approach to be able to provide a reasonable estimate but it seems like in this case the estimate was found to be four minutes off, which seems totally within the bounds of a reasonable estimate from an approach controller. The traffic pattern (US term) isn't really a factor here either way, airliners flying visual still usually use charted routes (like the instrument procedures) or radar vectors rather than the pattern. Remember that the pattern is only about one mile out from the field. By the time airliners are that close they're probably cleared.
- wtallis 3y ago
  > but it seems like in this case the estimate was found to be four minutes off No, I don't think you are being at all accurate about characterizing that; maybe you lost count of the delays. After being told to wait ten more minutes, the pilots waited an extra four minutes before pressing for an update, and got told to wait another 10-15 (or f off).
p3n1s 3y ago
Aerodrome traffic circuit is the ICAO term for traffic pattern, which is it what it is called in the US (it may be in the glossary but the point is that manual uses "traffic pattern" repeatedly). And this "traffic circuit" you refer to is almost always a VFR thing, as IFR approaches use specific charted procedures that generally do not end with a traffic circuit. https://skybrary.aero/articles/aerodrome-traffic-circuit https://skybrary.aero/articles/aerodrome-traffic-circuit
- ExoticPearTree 3y ago
  Aerodrome traffic pattern is completely different from holding patterns. And this is what LH was instructed to do, keep holding. Holding patterns are published for all airports and usually planes are stacked on those holding patterns and they are emptied FIFO style. Busier airports have multiple holding patterns to accommodate a large number of aircraft in case of on ground emergencies.
  - p3n1s 3y ago
    Sure, but GP stated wrt traffic patterns, "This is independent of whether the approach is IFR or VFR." which is not the case. For IFR, as was the case here, the LH was looking to execute an IFR approach, not ever enter the aerodrome traffic circuit.

kalleboo 3y ago

> that is not for the on-the-radio approach controller to calculate In that case they should not have given an estimate in the first place if it's just made up

ExoticPearTree 3y ago
That's why it is called an estimate. It is how much you think it might take, not the exact amount of time. When asked about how long something it is going to take, everyone is given an estimate, not an absolute value. And this is because a lot of things can happen in between that are out of everyone's control.