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This would make sense if the population growth was increasing but at a slower rate. But, the population is actively declining. Somehow, 5.3% of people went from

This would make sense if the population growth was increasing but at a slower rate. But, the population is actively declining. Somehow, 5.3% of people went from having housing to leaving, so I don’t think housing is the only story here.

chimeracoder 3y ago
> This would make sense if the population growth was increasing but at a slower rate. But, the population is actively declining. Somehow, 5.3% of people went from having housing to leaving, so I don’t think housing is the only story here. Yes, when your rent goes up 10-20% YoY and you simultaneously lose some or all of your income, you tend to leave. A lot of people left NYC in the last few years because they could not afford it, with housing being both the main expense and also the one that has increased the most in the last few years.
CydeWeys 3y ago
There's absolutely a housing shortage. Fewer people living in one unit is how you get a shrinking population while the housing supply remains static. And rent control exacerbates it, as you have literally over a million people that are a "locked into" their below-market rate units and can never leave because they'll never find anything that cheap elsewhere, regardless of whether they still need that much space. My great aunt for example is 101 years old and lives in a 3 bedroom apartment in Queens. 50 years ago there were 4 people living in that apartment (including her husband and her kids, all now dead). Plus there's the issue of renovations/demolitions that remove units and replace them with a smaller number of more expensive units.
- chrisco255 3y ago
  > Fewer people living in one unit is how you get a shrinking population while the housing supply remains static. No, that's not how normal distributions work. Among the 5.3%, some significant portion of those left empty housing units in their wake. They weren't all 3rd roommates that left.
  - CydeWeys 3y ago
    The vacancy rate in NYC is really low right now. Those units aren't "left empty", they're quickly re-rented back out. It's just that the new tenants on average have fewer people living per unit than the old tenants.
9question1 3y ago
This is true when housing demand is controlled entirely by how many people live in the area. However, large metro hubs like NYC and London have a larger percentage of the housing supply consumed by rich people who buy part-time housing so they have somewhere nice to crash when they visit once in a while, or so they have somewhere nice for tourists to crash where they can make money off Airbnb. In that context, net emigration does not necessarily rule out a tight housing supply.
akavi 3y ago
It might not be the only story, but it's very possible for growth in demand for housing quantity to outstrip growth in population. Say if there was a sudden move to working from home, which encourages home offices, concentrated in the class of workers with flexibility in their budget to spend more on rent (a class that's disproportionately large in NYC)? It's also possible for supply of housing to reduce simultaneously. Say if there was a change in rental laws that strongly incentivized landlords to pull units from the market?[0] [0] https://reason.com/2019/06/17/new-yorks-progressive-backed-rental-regulations-are-a-huge-gift-to-wealthy-tenants/ https://reason.com/2019/06/17/new-yorks-progressive-backed-r...
pastor_bob 3y ago
Remote work has made people pursue more space. I live in NYC in an 8 apartment building. 7 are 2 bedrooms, yet only 2 apartments have more than 1 person living in them. Somewhat ironically, you have people choosing to stay single and not have kids, which gives them more money to spend on themselves for more room, which eats up housing and drives up prices.
nikanj 3y ago
A home getting turned into an airbnb or a city pied-à-terre for a a rich playboy reduces the population but does not improve the housing crisis

chimeracoder 3y ago

> This would make sense if the population growth was increasing but at a slower rate. But, the population is actively declining. Somehow, 5.3% of people went from having housing to leaving, so I don’t think housing is the only story here. Yes, when your rent goes up 10-20% YoY and you simultaneously lose some or all of your income, you tend to leave. A lot of people left NYC in the last few years because they could not afford it, with housing being both the main expense and also the one that has increased the most in the last few years.

CydeWeys 3y ago

There's absolutely a housing shortage. Fewer people living in one unit is how you get a shrinking population while the housing supply remains static. And rent control exacerbates it, as you have literally over a million people that are a "locked into" their below-market rate units and can never leave because they'll never find anything that cheap elsewhere, regardless of whether they still need that much space. My great aunt for example is 101 years old and lives in a 3 bedroom apartment in Queens. 50 years ago there were 4 people living in that apartment (including her husband and her kids, all now dead). Plus there's the issue of renovations/demolitions that remove units and replace them with a smaller number of more expensive units.

chrisco255 3y ago
> Fewer people living in one unit is how you get a shrinking population while the housing supply remains static. No, that's not how normal distributions work. Among the 5.3%, some significant portion of those left empty housing units in their wake. They weren't all 3rd roommates that left.
- CydeWeys 3y ago
  The vacancy rate in NYC is really low right now. Those units aren't "left empty", they're quickly re-rented back out. It's just that the new tenants on average have fewer people living per unit than the old tenants.

9question1 3y ago

This is true when housing demand is controlled entirely by how many people live in the area. However, large metro hubs like NYC and London have a larger percentage of the housing supply consumed by rich people who buy part-time housing so they have somewhere nice to crash when they visit once in a while, or so they have somewhere nice for tourists to crash where they can make money off Airbnb. In that context, net emigration does not necessarily rule out a tight housing supply.

akavi 3y ago

It might not be the only story, but it's very possible for growth in demand for housing quantity to outstrip growth in population. Say if there was a sudden move to working from home, which encourages home offices, concentrated in the class of workers with flexibility in their budget to spend more on rent (a class that's disproportionately large in NYC)? It's also possible for supply of housing to reduce simultaneously. Say if there was a change in rental laws that strongly incentivized landlords to pull units from the market?[0] [0] https://reason.com/2019/06/17/new-yorks-progressive-backed-rental-regulations-are-a-huge-gift-to-wealthy-tenants/ https://reason.com/2019/06/17/new-yorks-progressive-backed-r...

pastor_bob 3y ago

Remote work has made people pursue more space. I live in NYC in an 8 apartment building. 7 are 2 bedrooms, yet only 2 apartments have more than 1 person living in them. Somewhat ironically, you have people choosing to stay single and not have kids, which gives them more money to spend on themselves for more room, which eats up housing and drives up prices.

nikanj 3y ago

A home getting turned into an airbnb or a city pied-à-terre for a a rich playboy reduces the population but does not improve the housing crisis