The latest estimates are that China’s emissions will peak next year and then enter a structural decline [1]. The 2030 number is generally viewed to be obsolete

The latest estimates are that China’s emissions will peak next year and then enter a structural decline [1]. The 2030 number is generally viewed to be obsolete now (that’s how fast things are moving.) This is even with the new coal capacity they’re building, which they’re structuring to be “idled” (through government payments not to generate.) They’re also building large amounts of solar capacity in the west and in deserts, with continent-scale HVDC interconnects. Right now the (global) goal isn’t 100% renewable energy, and it won’t be even by 2030 or 2040: a grid that’s 70-80% renewable with 20-30% average fossil emissions will be a massive improvement and will keep us on track for decarbonization. The interesting question is whether battery storage will decrease in price fast enough to deliver that remaining fraction, or whether we’ll have to build the remaining 20% with fission by 2050/60. Batteries are already economical enough that we have 5GW deployed in CA for infra-day time shifting. It seems like an incredibly long bet to imagjne that after three more decades of technological and manufacturing improvements their cost won’t have dropped enough to make them a viable competitor for nuclear. For my own part I wish I could take the other side of that bet, since I think it would be a good one. But we’ll have to wait and see. [1] https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-emissions-set-to-fall-in-2024-after-record-growth-in-clean-energy/ https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-emissions-set-to...