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One perspective I found illuminating recently: US debt in practical terms is financed by creditors showing up for treasury auctions. The biggest two holders of

One perspective I found illuminating recently: US debt in practical terms is financed by creditors showing up for treasury auctions. The biggest two holders of our treasury bills, Japan and China, are scaling down how much they’re willing to purchase. If the world appetite for these instruments dries up we’re in serious trouble, either we default or we print money and inflation takes off again. At the same time there are Thucydides trap advocates in DC that are bent on ensuring we remain the greatest great power, and are antagonizing China in an effort to keep America as the hegemon. China could just decide not to buy any more debt, or even worse, sell the debt it has and make the market for US debt even more unfavorable for the US. Economic forces are incentivizing cooperation but political forces are rejecting it.

elzbardico 3y ago
Political Forces: a.k.a., The Neocon Cabal and the revolving door of the Military Industrial Complex.
borissk 3y ago
The situation with the US debt is serious, but the way you present it - as just a matter of China decision to collapse US is not correct. There are very good reasons the vast majority of the world countries, companies and rich people invests in US government debt. China, Japan and the other investors will be hard pressed to find an alternative. Cooperation with a country like China is very hard and often impossible. The second they smell weakness in the West they'll start pushing smaller countries around, building military bases across the world, potentially invade Taiwan, etc.
- mensetmanusman 3y ago
  Yeah, US is long strong. Perfect geography, energy and food independence, lots of space, high tech, reverse brain drain...
rat87 3y ago
Japan (an ally) and China may own most of America's foreign debt but the vast majority of US debt is owed by the US. And if China sells some of that debt other countries are more then happy to buy it. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/foreign-holdings-us-treasuries-august-hit-highest-since-december-2021-data-2023-10-18/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/foreign-holdings-us-treas... The US would prefer to have a better relationship with China but Chinese threats to invade independent country of Taiwan make it very difficult
mrangle 3y ago
Now apply this logic to Germany, through a geopolitical lens, and there will be more insight on Germany's retreat from EV subsidies.
WorldMaker 3y ago
Per the US GAO, domestic investors hold 45% of US debt and that is the largest plurality (as of FY2020): https://www.gao.gov/americas-fiscal-future/federal-debt https://www.gao.gov/americas-fiscal-future/federal-debt Pay attention to the Pie Chart and not the map just below it which is the part often shared to claim that China owns "too much" US debt. The map doesn't include domestic investment because it would break the color scale at roughly 9.45 Trillion (nearly 10x Chinese investment according to the map's scale and nearly 1000x above the lowest part of that scale). It probably needs an asterisk somewhere directly in the graphic mentioning that instead of accidentally implying that the US has less domestic investment than Chinese investment. 21% held by international investors is still an interestingly large number, but certainly not "the US ends if Chinese investors start to get cold feet" that a lot of pop culture has come to think of it as. (That's still not a good political reason to think you should antagonize China, but it isn't exactly "mutually assured destruction" economically speaking for those that seem intent on antagonizing China.) Don't forget: most US investors have some mix of US treasury bonds in their retirement plans, even as most of the US has migrated from pensions (which in their best years conservatively kept mixes heavily favoring US bonds) to more self-guided 401ks. Having some mixture of US bonds remains a standard practice for the US investor and the 401k market is still buying bonds because they are still a good investment for their risk profile.

elzbardico 3y ago

Political Forces: a.k.a., The Neocon Cabal and the revolving door of the Military Industrial Complex.

borissk 3y ago

The situation with the US debt is serious, but the way you present it - as just a matter of China decision to collapse US is not correct. There are very good reasons the vast majority of the world countries, companies and rich people invests in US government debt. China, Japan and the other investors will be hard pressed to find an alternative. Cooperation with a country like China is very hard and often impossible. The second they smell weakness in the West they'll start pushing smaller countries around, building military bases across the world, potentially invade Taiwan, etc.

mensetmanusman 3y ago
Yeah, US is long strong. Perfect geography, energy and food independence, lots of space, high tech, reverse brain drain...

rat87 3y ago

Japan (an ally) and China may own most of America's foreign debt but the vast majority of US debt is owed by the US. And if China sells some of that debt other countries are more then happy to buy it. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/foreign-holdings-us-treasuries-august-hit-highest-since-december-2021-data-2023-10-18/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/foreign-holdings-us-treas... The US would prefer to have a better relationship with China but Chinese threats to invade independent country of Taiwan make it very difficult

mrangle 3y ago

Now apply this logic to Germany, through a geopolitical lens, and there will be more insight on Germany's retreat from EV subsidies.

WorldMaker 3y ago

Per the US GAO, domestic investors hold 45% of US debt and that is the largest plurality (as of FY2020): https://www.gao.gov/americas-fiscal-future/federal-debt https://www.gao.gov/americas-fiscal-future/federal-debt Pay attention to the Pie Chart and not the map just below it which is the part often shared to claim that China owns "too much" US debt. The map doesn't include domestic investment because it would break the color scale at roughly 9.45 Trillion (nearly 10x Chinese investment according to the map's scale and nearly 1000x above the lowest part of that scale). It probably needs an asterisk somewhere directly in the graphic mentioning that instead of accidentally implying that the US has less domestic investment than Chinese investment. 21% held by international investors is still an interestingly large number, but certainly not "the US ends if Chinese investors start to get cold feet" that a lot of pop culture has come to think of it as. (That's still not a good political reason to think you should antagonize China, but it isn't exactly "mutually assured destruction" economically speaking for those that seem intent on antagonizing China.) Don't forget: most US investors have some mix of US treasury bonds in their retirement plans, even as most of the US has migrated from pensions (which in their best years conservatively kept mixes heavily favoring US bonds) to more self-guided 401ks. Having some mixture of US bonds remains a standard practice for the US investor and the 401k market is still buying bonds because they are still a good investment for their risk profile.