I love when financial types talk about a "20% chance" of X happening (like earnings miss, default, etc) If you are familiar with the postulates of probability,

I love when financial types talk about a "20% chance" of X happening (like earnings miss, default, etc) If you are familiar with the postulates of probability, you realize that they are talking out of their butts, and are trying to sound oh-so-precise-and-mathematical. Much of the financial world is about the appearance of quantitative thinking and not actual quantitative thinking.