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While you are right, sometimes I can't help but feel like Moore's Law (etc) has done us a disservice by making it so we compare every kind of technological prog
by ipdashc 3y ago
While you are right, sometimes I can't help but feel like Moore's Law (etc) has done us a disservice by making it so we compare every kind of technological progress to the progress in computer hardware (or I guess electronics more broadly) and expect that kind of progress in other domains. Are there any other fields that have experienced the same sort of staggering, exponential improvement? Off the top of my head, think of say, food/agriculture, biology, aerospace engineering, construction engineering, etc. All have seen steady, impressive improvements, but nothing comparable to the steady (over many decades), yet exponential improvement of Moore's Law - nothing comparable to going from room-sized computers to having 1000x the compute power in a smartphone chip.
(EDIT: This isn't to say that those fields are worse, or the scientists there less skilled, or something. They're just different domains. "Increase transistor density" may simply just be an easier problem to solve - despite being an incredibly difficult problem - than the issues in those fields.)
I'm going off on a tangent a bit, but all I'm trying to say is, I feel like "if electronics manufacturing can improve at X rate, then surely Y field can also improve at that rate" is a bit of a fallacy.
- DennisP 3y agoOf course you're right in general but the fusion triple product actually did increase exponentially, at a faster pace than Moore's Law, from 1970 to 2000. Then for a while everybody decided to put most of the money in a giant construction project in France that still isn't finished. Now we're partway back to the system of competing smaller projects that we had during the exponential period. Lasers have also been improving dramatically. In particular the power of fast lasers has been going up exponentially.
- ipdashc 3y agoThat's a fair point! Didn't look at it that way.