3 ms·
Someone - a very wise, very successful someone - once provided a pretty good definition of a bubble. A bubble is when the fundamentals are right, but the timing
by VolatileVoid 14y ago
Someone - a very wise, very successful someone - once provided a pretty good definition of a bubble. A bubble is when the fundamentals are right, but the timing is wrong.
For example, let's consider the most recent housing bubble. The housing bubble was predicated - at least in the beginning - on the fact that populations are growing, but land mass (and livable land mass, at that) remains constant. If we work under that assumption, land is at a premimum, and therefore _in the long term_, it can only go up. However, the problem is that too much happened too soon, and it created artificially high prices.
The tech bubble of the 90s was largely similar. It was a case where any retailer could chuck a .com at the end of their name and make millions. The fundamentals, however, were largely correct. I do almost ALL my big-ticket purchases online. Amazon's online retail presence is huge and pervasive.
I believe we MAY now be in an "information bubble." This isn't the .com bubble of yore. Rather it is a battle for your information. Facebook's got a nice chunk of it, as does Google. Instagram had a nice chunk of your photos. Essentially, information is at a premium right now. To what end? I suppose that remains the deciding factor on whether or not we are ACTUALLY in a bubble. If the information can be monetized then perhaps what we are seeing is simply the markets catching up to the tech trends. Eventually it will slow down - but that's entirely different from a "pop."
The alternative to the above is that people start to realize that the information isn't wholly reliable, and can not be converted (easily - for now) into revenue. In that case I'd expect there to be a correction at some point. But I think the fundamentals are sound. Information is the currency of the future - especially as we become more and more connected.
- dageshi 14y agoI think what you have is a handful of 800 pound gorillas who have successfully figured out how to monetise information hoovering up start ups for talent and information that they can plug into their own platforms & monetise. Everything else is perhaps feeding off that, so my bet would be, this all stops when someone ends up buying twitter, that might well be google, at that point everyone will be busy integrating all their new data into their existing products and attempting to monetise it. My 2cents anyway.