It is difficult to find a black cat in a dark room, especially if there is no cat. Many of the comments assume that a valuation, derived from stock price or ve

It is difficult to find a black cat in a dark room, especially if there is no cat. Many of the comments assume that a valuation, derived from stock price or venture financing, is rational. It is not. Yes, the value of the business is defined by future cash flow adjusted for time-value of money and risk. In case of new, unknown businesses/industries, without prior history, it is not possible to estimate the future cash flow and the associated risk. Therefore, if we would look at this from investment angle, I would compare this to a gamble, or, taking into account human component, a poker tournament [from my financial perspective]. P.S.: of course in case of Dropbox and Evernote, which have revenue, it is possible to do some financial modeling, but this would not substitute future cash flow since risk/uncertainty is still an open question. P.P.S.: in the past the best strategy was to follow the ride and get off the train before everybody else ..... :-)