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No, as an EV owner I’m 98% confident ICE is over. The age of fire is ending and the age of maxwells equations is upon us. ICE is fundamentally too complex. The

No, as an EV owner I’m 98% confident ICE is over. The age of fire is ending and the age of maxwells equations is upon us. ICE is fundamentally too complex. The primary issue in EV is battery tech, and that is advancing so rapidly with so much investment that the 5 year roadmap of CATL and others already addresses almost all the issues, and there’s a ton of wildcard battery tech looming with intense interest. There’s nothing on the roadmap on ICE. There is no roadmap, just entrenched interests.

d1sxeyes 3y ago
Right, but we’re not talking about the tech, we’re talking about price. For at least the next 25 years, for a lot of people, the significant up-front cost of buying an EV will push them to keep older ICE vehicles on life support in a Captain Vimes’s boots sort of way.
- fnordpiglet 3y ago
  Oh, price today is entirely margin related and poisoning the well by the ICE career attached people at major car makers. Everyone wants Tesla margins so is charging Tesla prices, and the ICE career aligned execs are intentionally pushing the ICE will be affordable narrative. BYD, MG, and other Chinese EV makers are already eating ICE makers alive in Asia and creeping into Europe. Nothing about EV is necessarily expensive - they’re very simple devices, no part is exotic, and most of the current price is baked into fit and finish plus heavy margins. ICE cars are genuinely amazing machines of precision mastery. They’re complex and difficult to make. The only reason they’re cheap is scale and long established supply chains. But if you reduced their complexity by 80-90% like with an EV, the scale and maturity of supply chain required to overtake ICE is not 25 years to establish. It’s more like 3-4.
  - d1sxeyes 3y ago
    Are Tesla’s margins really that great? I know their stock keeps going up but in terms of revenue vs costs, I didn’t think they were that much better than any other luxury car brand-although I accept on reflection that I can’t identify why I think that, which probably means it’s not based on anything. Regardless of supply chain maturity and so on, I think you are wrong that the average family is less than 4 years away from a new car though.

d1sxeyes 3y ago

Right, but we’re not talking about the tech, we’re talking about price. For at least the next 25 years, for a lot of people, the significant up-front cost of buying an EV will push them to keep older ICE vehicles on life support in a Captain Vimes’s boots sort of way.

fnordpiglet 3y ago
Oh, price today is entirely margin related and poisoning the well by the ICE career attached people at major car makers. Everyone wants Tesla margins so is charging Tesla prices, and the ICE career aligned execs are intentionally pushing the ICE will be affordable narrative. BYD, MG, and other Chinese EV makers are already eating ICE makers alive in Asia and creeping into Europe. Nothing about EV is necessarily expensive - they’re very simple devices, no part is exotic, and most of the current price is baked into fit and finish plus heavy margins. ICE cars are genuinely amazing machines of precision mastery. They’re complex and difficult to make. The only reason they’re cheap is scale and long established supply chains. But if you reduced their complexity by 80-90% like with an EV, the scale and maturity of supply chain required to overtake ICE is not 25 years to establish. It’s more like 3-4.
- d1sxeyes 3y ago
  Are Tesla’s margins really that great? I know their stock keeps going up but in terms of revenue vs costs, I didn’t think they were that much better than any other luxury car brand-although I accept on reflection that I can’t identify why I think that, which probably means it’s not based on anything. Regardless of supply chain maturity and so on, I think you are wrong that the average family is less than 4 years away from a new car though.