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I’m certainly not claiming the actual probability is 10^-40 , only using this as an example consistent with an upper limit, which probability would imply life h
by superposeur 3y ago
I’m certainly not claiming the actual probability is 10^-40 , only using this as an example consistent with an upper limit, which probability would imply life has not arisen a second time in the observable universe. Actually this is way overkill — as you say, even if the probability is as high as 10^-25, life on Earth is still probably the only instance in observable universe. The point is that we have no idea what this all important parameter is.
- spenczar5 3y agoOur upper limit is something like 10^-1. After all, there is life on earth! Our lower limit is 10^-25 or so. Why pick the lower limit? Existence of life on earth is extremely powerful evidence.
- superposeur 3y agoAh, but in my opinion we can't call 10^-25 a lower limit since, if life didn't occur in this collection of planets, we wouldn't be here asking the question in the first place!
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]