3 ms·

Inflation and unemployment are the big ones. I believe they extended the time for recent gig work to count against unemployment even if you are job seeking, and

Inflation and unemployment are the big ones. I believe they extended the time for recent gig work to count against unemployment even if you are job seeking, and gig workers don't feed into underemployed. So someone looking for work and also doing door dash etc but barely making any money would have previously counted as unemployed but now they are less likely to. Pushing stats like average income being up is misleading and the stock market is inflated by reverse repos. The concentration of market cap in the index is problematic as well. Reverse repos are still at shockingly high levels but drastically down from their recent highs. So the question is if there is another financial instrument at play that isn't as widely known since the repurchase agreements started taking heat. Wealth inequality though is the real metric to look at and it's hard to judge but record homelessness is obviously not a good sign.

JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> they extended the time for recent gig work to count against unemployment Not to my knowledge. Contingent employment has always counted as employment for broad measures; this is why many papers discuss non-farm payroll [1] or even full-time employed from surveys [2]. The problem is these data are less precise than broader payroll figures, and so can't be observed month to month nor even quarter to quarter, certainly not real time. You're discussing an actual measurement problem, one that's been discussed since 2019 [3][4]. But it's cause for changing the metrics, not caused by any change in the metrics. > the stock market is inflated by reverse repos This is wrong, but I'm not sure for what reason. Could you explain why you think this? Repos are a borrowing mechanism. Reverse repo means lending. Yes, lending boosted the stock market. But we're currently in a liquidity-draning environment, so this is a peculiar complaint. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS [2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12500000 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12500000 [3] https://www.axios.com/2019/04/18/gig-economy-employment-economic-data-effect https://www.axios.com/2019/04/18/gig-economy-employment-econ... [4] https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2019/0416 https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2019/0416
- hattmall 3y ago
  >This is wrong, but I'm not sure for what reason. Could you explain why you think this? Overnight repurchase agreements give banks seemingly off the books money to invest in commodity and equity markets. They are a direct driver of inflation. Banks are able to maintain positions and their balances by purchasing Treasury products at 11:59pm and having the fed buy them back at 12:01am. They are supposed to be used strictly for emergency liquidity situations but as you can see from the chart we got very far away from that. They are finally coming down but still very high. They are the primary reason for the record inflation. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD

JumpCrisscross 3y ago

> they extended the time for recent gig work to count against unemployment Not to my knowledge. Contingent employment has always counted as employment for broad measures; this is why many papers discuss non-farm payroll [1] or even full-time employed from surveys [2]. The problem is these data are less precise than broader payroll figures, and so can't be observed month to month nor even quarter to quarter, certainly not real time. You're discussing an actual measurement problem, one that's been discussed since 2019 [3][4]. But it's cause for changing the metrics, not caused by any change in the metrics. > the stock market is inflated by reverse repos This is wrong, but I'm not sure for what reason. Could you explain why you think this? Repos are a borrowing mechanism. Reverse repo means lending. Yes, lending boosted the stock market. But we're currently in a liquidity-draning environment, so this is a peculiar complaint. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS [2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12500000 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12500000 [3] https://www.axios.com/2019/04/18/gig-economy-employment-economic-data-effect https://www.axios.com/2019/04/18/gig-economy-employment-econ... [4] https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2019/0416 https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2019/0416

hattmall 3y ago
>This is wrong, but I'm not sure for what reason. Could you explain why you think this? Overnight repurchase agreements give banks seemingly off the books money to invest in commodity and equity markets. They are a direct driver of inflation. Banks are able to maintain positions and their balances by purchasing Treasury products at 11:59pm and having the fed buy them back at 12:01am. They are supposed to be used strictly for emergency liquidity situations but as you can see from the chart we got very far away from that. They are finally coming down but still very high. They are the primary reason for the record inflation. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD