5 ms·

I want to see it come out with a cure for a disease that is tough to cure first. Singularity itself is pointless unless it benefits humans which is mainly in h

by m3kw9 3y ago

I want to see it come out with a cure for a disease that is tough to cure first. Singularity itself is pointless unless it benefits humans which is mainly in health/lower suffering

educaysean 3y ago
I'd say advancement in mathematics, computer science, and heck, even art is far from "pointless". Why does it feel like goalposts get moved everytime there is a significant progress in AI?
- impegh 3y ago
  I read this same empty “goalposts” lament multiples times a day when reading this website, and though I know what the words mean I’m confused what you all think they mean. https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&query=Goalposts%20moved%20ai&sort=byDate&type=comment https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu... Is this just some performative grousing or do you really think what has been developed to date is “artificial intelligence”? These comments all conveniently fail to define their author’s goalposts that apparently have been reached or surpassed. What were yours?
  - quickthrower2 3y ago
    Well for it to be Artificial and convey Intellgence. I think that goal has been met!
    - F-Lexx 3y ago
      How do you define intelligence?
      - quickthrower2 3y ago
        I don’t have a exact definition but I will claim that helping me to write code that usually works first time or has a minor bug based on natural language is intelligence.
  - resonious 3y ago
    Back in my CS undergrad we learned Dijkstra's Algorithm in AI class. Once upon a time, that was AI. I think AI just refers to newly discovered useful algorithms.
  - cornel_io 3y ago
    There was a very recent time when passing some version of the Turing Test would have been a fairly commonly accepted goalpost. Many experts thought that was 20+ years away, and were perfectly comfortable saying that it was their "bar", primarily because they thought generating convincing conversational text was so difficult that you'd basically have to solve All The Problems(TM) first. Notice how nobody is talking about the Turing Test anymore now that it's either already been passed or is very damn close? We can argue back and forth about whether the real stupidity was the earlier expectation that the Turing Test was a useful threshold for AI, but it's impossible to claim that it wasn't a somewhat common and well-known one, so that goalpost really has been moved in a very dramatic way (or rather, removed altogether and replaced with nothing in particular other than a vague "I'll know it when I see it", in most cases).
    - creer 3y ago
      Exactly so. The posts have been moved safely waayyyy over there at AGI, and at "super-human" or at "critical thinking". And several stages or degrees of AGI have been hierarchized. There is a serious reluctance at accepting how dumb an algorithm can be and still compare with humans. But it is also true that numerous ground techniques are issue of the field of AI and generally called AI as they come out. It makes for good press. And that too was silly.
      - ChatGTP 3y ago
        On the other hand, we've passed the turing test, what's changed?
        creer 3y ago
        You mean practically? What did this achieve? What did we gain now that the turing test is passed? For actually already done: Actually believable chat-bots? Summarizers and question answerers? Generative text and graphics actually usable for generation of text, graphics and (mostly) photo-realistic renderings? Architecture brainstorming? (And logos, etc.) Kinda working self-driving cars? New Go playing strategies? A super-human Go champion? AI is on a roll these days. That's not counting the more proprietary and discreet applications being already used all over the place. I fully expect there are already several.
- jodrellblank 3y ago
  > "Why does it feel like goalposts get moved everytime there is a significant progress in AI?" Why does it feel like people think this is a useful or interesting whine? OK you brute-force solved tic-tac-toe, you built an AI. Congratulations, everyone recognises the dawn of Artificial Intelligence - and truly, enumerating all states of tic-tac-toe is all we ever dreamed of, all we could want, it's really all there is to intelligence. The term "AI" will never ever be used to mean anything else. The term "AI" means (solving the first problem that was ever suggested to be AI decades ago) - how is that a better state of the world? What has anyone gained from "not moving the goalpoasts"?
melagonster 3y ago
This is impossible, we can makesure that more possible scenario is that most of people lose job and starve. it is not sure whether we can reach to a society have UBI.
sbierwagen 3y ago
In order for an AI to evaluate the effect of a small molecule on the brain, it would have to... simulate the operation of a human brain in a simulated environment. Similarly, to avoid Thalidomide-style disasters, it would have to simulate the conception, development and growth to adulthood of a human. These things are... physically possible, but have WBE and uploads as a hard requirement. Those are going to affect a hell of a lot of things more than the drug industry! Amusingly, machine-phase nanotechology and blood nanobots would be easier to evaluate, since simple cell-level mechanical interventions (reading surface proteins on cancer cells and chopping them up, say) will have fewer interactions than a small molecule that diffuses into every cell in the body.
- jocoda 3y ago
  WBE?
- AnthonyMouse 3y ago
  > In order for an AI to evaluate the effect of a small molecule on the brain, it would have to... simulate the operation of a human brain in a simulated environment. Similarly, to avoid Thalidomide-style disasters, it would have to simulate the conception, development and growth to adulthood of a human. This is how the human doctors who have cured things in the past have done it, is it? The way this is going to work, when it happens, is that you'll ask the AI for a cure and it will give you a hundred candidates. A human doctor will look at the list and throw half of them out because they're toxic, several of the remainder will be excluded by animal trials, the few remaining will proceed to human clinical trials and one of them will actually work.
  - zer00eyz 3y ago
    >> The way this is going to work... Google is already doing something like this: https://arstechnica.com/ai/2023/11/googles-deepmind-finds-2-2m-crystal-structures-in-materials-science-win/ https://arstechnica.com/ai/2023/11/googles-deepmind-finds-2-... This is great if you want to use well understood pathways or make new drugs that you can then patent and mark up. New pathways are gonna require feeding data into these models in the first place. Your not getting ozempic out of ML without doing the ground work first: https://globalnews.ca/news/9793403/ozempic-canada-scientist-venomous-lizard-weight-loss/ https://globalnews.ca/news/9793403/ozempic-canada-scientist-...
ben_w 3y ago
AI advancements are why we have affordable genome reading. AlphaFold was a nice surprise when it happened, too.
bart_spoon 3y ago
“Cure” is a tough bar, but I believe Paxlovid, the anti-viral used to reduce Covid severity, was identified using ML. There’s many companies like Recursion Pharma which are entirely focused on using ML for drug discovery, and from what I can tell seem to have promising results, but drug development is slow enough that nothing will come of it for a while. Also, while not medicine focused, Google’s GNOME project results announced a few weeks ago was pretty remarkable. They discovered more theoretical new materials using their ML approach than the rest of human history combined, and they are already confirming many of the results in laboratory settings. That has the potential to be a revolution in limitless scientific and engineering applications.

by m3kw9 3y ago

I want to see it come out with a cure for a disease that is tough to cure first. Singularity itself is pointless unless it benefits humans which is mainly in health/lower suffering

educaysean 3y ago

I'd say advancement in mathematics, computer science, and heck, even art is far from "pointless". Why does it feel like goalposts get moved everytime there is a significant progress in AI?

impegh 3y ago
I read this same empty “goalposts” lament multiples times a day when reading this website, and though I know what the words mean I’m confused what you all think they mean. https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&query=Goalposts%20moved%20ai&sort=byDate&type=comment https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu... Is this just some performative grousing or do you really think what has been developed to date is “artificial intelligence”? These comments all conveniently fail to define their author’s goalposts that apparently have been reached or surpassed. What were yours?
- quickthrower2 3y ago
  Well for it to be Artificial and convey Intellgence. I think that goal has been met!
  - F-Lexx 3y ago
    How do you define intelligence?
    - quickthrower2 3y ago
      I don’t have a exact definition but I will claim that helping me to write code that usually works first time or has a minor bug based on natural language is intelligence.
- resonious 3y ago
  Back in my CS undergrad we learned Dijkstra's Algorithm in AI class. Once upon a time, that was AI. I think AI just refers to newly discovered useful algorithms.
- cornel_io 3y ago
  There was a very recent time when passing some version of the Turing Test would have been a fairly commonly accepted goalpost. Many experts thought that was 20+ years away, and were perfectly comfortable saying that it was their "bar", primarily because they thought generating convincing conversational text was so difficult that you'd basically have to solve All The Problems(TM) first. Notice how nobody is talking about the Turing Test anymore now that it's either already been passed or is very damn close? We can argue back and forth about whether the real stupidity was the earlier expectation that the Turing Test was a useful threshold for AI, but it's impossible to claim that it wasn't a somewhat common and well-known one, so that goalpost really has been moved in a very dramatic way (or rather, removed altogether and replaced with nothing in particular other than a vague "I'll know it when I see it", in most cases).
  - creer 3y ago
    Exactly so. The posts have been moved safely waayyyy over there at AGI, and at "super-human" or at "critical thinking". And several stages or degrees of AGI have been hierarchized. There is a serious reluctance at accepting how dumb an algorithm can be and still compare with humans. But it is also true that numerous ground techniques are issue of the field of AI and generally called AI as they come out. It makes for good press. And that too was silly.
    - ChatGTP 3y ago
      On the other hand, we've passed the turing test, what's changed?
      - creer 3y ago
        You mean practically? What did this achieve? What did we gain now that the turing test is passed? For actually already done: Actually believable chat-bots? Summarizers and question answerers? Generative text and graphics actually usable for generation of text, graphics and (mostly) photo-realistic renderings? Architecture brainstorming? (And logos, etc.) Kinda working self-driving cars? New Go playing strategies? A super-human Go champion? AI is on a roll these days. That's not counting the more proprietary and discreet applications being already used all over the place. I fully expect there are already several.
jodrellblank 3y ago
> "Why does it feel like goalposts get moved everytime there is a significant progress in AI?" Why does it feel like people think this is a useful or interesting whine? OK you brute-force solved tic-tac-toe, you built an AI. Congratulations, everyone recognises the dawn of Artificial Intelligence - and truly, enumerating all states of tic-tac-toe is all we ever dreamed of, all we could want, it's really all there is to intelligence. The term "AI" will never ever be used to mean anything else. The term "AI" means (solving the first problem that was ever suggested to be AI decades ago) - how is that a better state of the world? What has anyone gained from "not moving the goalpoasts"?

melagonster 3y ago

This is impossible, we can makesure that more possible scenario is that most of people lose job and starve. it is not sure whether we can reach to a society have UBI.

sbierwagen 3y ago

In order for an AI to evaluate the effect of a small molecule on the brain, it would have to... simulate the operation of a human brain in a simulated environment. Similarly, to avoid Thalidomide-style disasters, it would have to simulate the conception, development and growth to adulthood of a human. These things are... physically possible, but have WBE and uploads as a hard requirement. Those are going to affect a hell of a lot of things more than the drug industry! Amusingly, machine-phase nanotechology and blood nanobots would be easier to evaluate, since simple cell-level mechanical interventions (reading surface proteins on cancer cells and chopping them up, say) will have fewer interactions than a small molecule that diffuses into every cell in the body.

jocoda 3y ago
WBE?
AnthonyMouse 3y ago
> In order for an AI to evaluate the effect of a small molecule on the brain, it would have to... simulate the operation of a human brain in a simulated environment. Similarly, to avoid Thalidomide-style disasters, it would have to simulate the conception, development and growth to adulthood of a human. This is how the human doctors who have cured things in the past have done it, is it? The way this is going to work, when it happens, is that you'll ask the AI for a cure and it will give you a hundred candidates. A human doctor will look at the list and throw half of them out because they're toxic, several of the remainder will be excluded by animal trials, the few remaining will proceed to human clinical trials and one of them will actually work.
- zer00eyz 3y ago
  >> The way this is going to work... Google is already doing something like this: https://arstechnica.com/ai/2023/11/googles-deepmind-finds-2-2m-crystal-structures-in-materials-science-win/ https://arstechnica.com/ai/2023/11/googles-deepmind-finds-2-... This is great if you want to use well understood pathways or make new drugs that you can then patent and mark up. New pathways are gonna require feeding data into these models in the first place. Your not getting ozempic out of ML without doing the ground work first: https://globalnews.ca/news/9793403/ozempic-canada-scientist-venomous-lizard-weight-loss/ https://globalnews.ca/news/9793403/ozempic-canada-scientist-...

ben_w 3y ago

AI advancements are why we have affordable genome reading. AlphaFold was a nice surprise when it happened, too.

bart_spoon 3y ago

“Cure” is a tough bar, but I believe Paxlovid, the anti-viral used to reduce Covid severity, was identified using ML. There’s many companies like Recursion Pharma which are entirely focused on using ML for drug discovery, and from what I can tell seem to have promising results, but drug development is slow enough that nothing will come of it for a while. Also, while not medicine focused, Google’s GNOME project results announced a few weeks ago was pretty remarkable. They discovered more theoretical new materials using their ML approach than the rest of human history combined, and they are already confirming many of the results in laboratory settings. That has the potential to be a revolution in limitless scientific and engineering applications.