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> How do we know this? Some life experience + common sense? > In theory you could get from the status quo to actually working in a short period of time, In t

> How do we know this? Some life experience + common sense? > In theory you could get from the status quo to actually working in a short period of time, In theory we could build a rocket that would fly a person to the moon in 6 months. > if you're sufficiently smart If that's the case, you wouldn't be making such bold claims (or rather actually believing in them yourself) > LLMs and image generation were the sort of things many people said were many years away, Does that include the people who were actually working on them in OpenAI? > It's obvious that his estimates are optimistic, but optimism isn't inherently malicious. In some cases it's either malice or stupidity/delusion.

AnthonyMouse 3y ago
> Some life experience + common sense? If you asked people with "life experience + common sense" if generative AI would soon be possible six months before it actually was, they'd have said no and been wrong. > In theory we could build a rocket that would fly a person to the moon in 6 months. Kennedy said it would be done by the end of the decade, people called him crazy, and then it happened. The people saying it couldn't be done were still saying it right up until the day it happened. > If that's the case, you wouldn't be making such bold claims (or rather actually believing in them yourself) I don't think he, or anyone, believes that it will definitely happen in six months. He's giving the optimistic end of the range, but everybody knows that. > Does that include the people who were actually working on them in OpenAI? Before they had them working internally? Yeah, it did. Nobody knew it would work until it actually worked.
- Wytwwww 3y ago
  > the AI would soon be possible six months before it actually was, they'd have said no and been wrong. GPT 3.5 / 4 were an iteration of previous models, their performance wasn't that exceptionally surprising if you were working in the field. Also, these are fundamentally different problems. Self-driving requires massive amounts of real-world testing and then you have all the regulatory and safety/legal stuff to do. That's simply infeasible in 6 months no matter what. Generative AI has no such constraints. > Kennedy said it would be done by the end of the decade, people called him crazy, and then it happened. The people saying it couldn't be done were still saying it right up until the day it happened. So? I don't see any link to what we're discussing. Kennedy didn't really have that much direct involvement in the moon program. What we're discussing is an equivalent of the head of NASA, in ~1966 or so publicly declaring that they'll send a crewed mission to the moon in 6 months (even though everyone knew that wasn't possible no matter how hard everyone worked). > He's giving the optimistic end of the range, He's just saying random unsubstantiated stuff because that's just what he does all the time (or because he wants to sell more cars IDK). > Yeah, it did. Nobody knew it would work until it actually worked. I'm pretty sure that was an iterative process, so they knew quite a while before it actually "worked" (could be released to the public).

AnthonyMouse 3y ago

> Some life experience + common sense? If you asked people with "life experience + common sense" if generative AI would soon be possible six months before it actually was, they'd have said no and been wrong. > In theory we could build a rocket that would fly a person to the moon in 6 months. Kennedy said it would be done by the end of the decade, people called him crazy, and then it happened. The people saying it couldn't be done were still saying it right up until the day it happened. > If that's the case, you wouldn't be making such bold claims (or rather actually believing in them yourself) I don't think he, or anyone, believes that it will definitely happen in six months. He's giving the optimistic end of the range, but everybody knows that. > Does that include the people who were actually working on them in OpenAI? Before they had them working internally? Yeah, it did. Nobody knew it would work until it actually worked.

Wytwwww 3y ago
> the AI would soon be possible six months before it actually was, they'd have said no and been wrong. GPT 3.5 / 4 were an iteration of previous models, their performance wasn't that exceptionally surprising if you were working in the field. Also, these are fundamentally different problems. Self-driving requires massive amounts of real-world testing and then you have all the regulatory and safety/legal stuff to do. That's simply infeasible in 6 months no matter what. Generative AI has no such constraints. > Kennedy said it would be done by the end of the decade, people called him crazy, and then it happened. The people saying it couldn't be done were still saying it right up until the day it happened. So? I don't see any link to what we're discussing. Kennedy didn't really have that much direct involvement in the moon program. What we're discussing is an equivalent of the head of NASA, in ~1966 or so publicly declaring that they'll send a crewed mission to the moon in 6 months (even though everyone knew that wasn't possible no matter how hard everyone worked). > He's giving the optimistic end of the range, He's just saying random unsubstantiated stuff because that's just what he does all the time (or because he wants to sell more cars IDK). > Yeah, it did. Nobody knew it would work until it actually worked. I'm pretty sure that was an iterative process, so they knew quite a while before it actually "worked" (could be released to the public).