I don't think the assumption is that many peoe will migrate from mastodon to threads, but rather that people migrating from other platforms will migrate to thre

I don't think the assumption is that many peoe will migrate from mastodon to threads, but rather that people migrating from other platforms will migrate to threads over "really federated" services, stifling growth of mastodon and preventing it from becoming a serious threat. Which is exactly what happened with xmpp iirc. And yeah, my money is on threads cutting loose from AP at some point in the not so distant future, at which point the whole thing becomes indistinguishable from "mainland" Facebook.