4 ms·
I think this is the exact definition of a bubble. The phenomenon of runaway demand by a 'new class' of investors/investments has always been the hallmark of bub
by guimarin 14y ago
I think this is the exact definition of a bubble. The phenomenon of runaway demand by a 'new class' of investors/investments has always been the hallmark of bubbles. 1920s a real national stock market with almost instant communication, now 'anyone' could trade stocks. This created a demand for stocks, so a demand for companies that listed as stocks. The 1960s, aka the go-go years. This bubble was around the conglomerate instrument. Some conglomerates did well, so everyone wanted to invest in the 'new' thing conglomerates. 1980s. Junk Bonds, or high-yield debt as we call it now. New financial instrument initially does well, demand soars. 1990s, internet companies. Recognition that the internet is going to change the world, everyone wants to own a stock in internet companies, a ton of crappy IPOs. 2000s, market conditions ripe for housing bubble. late 2000s, stat-arb blows up ( for unrelated to stat-arb reasons ) due to over-reliance on new financial vehicles. 2010s, being an 'angel' is easier than ever, and who wants to miss out on the next google/facebook.
Make no mistake, there is a bubble in early stage companies/financing. What is driving it is the same. runaway demand. This particular bubble is different than the last, because the primary implication of the last has not yet been absorbed. The regulatory structure for raising capitol and 'exiting' has not caught up to a simple reality. New technology displaces old technology faster than regulated exits can be executed. Just look at Groupon. Why do I, as a business, list with groupon, when I can just as easily list with 600 competitors who might be more specialized/niche?