I completely agree with you. The problem is the market hasn't found an adequate discount rate for startup success in the social network / web 2.0 reality. Nobod

I completely agree with you. The problem is the market hasn't found an adequate discount rate for startup success in the social network / web 2.0 reality. Nobody knows how much Evernote is worth because its business model is so Swiss generis. Evernote wants to establish itself as a knowledge repository and, in doing so, is competing with nearly every single company in the tech field: Google, Microsoft, Facebook, Bento, IBM, CMSs, Doc managers, Yammer, Apple, on and on and on. Could Evernote beat them all or raise to a market share that warrants a 1 billion valuation. Absolutely. They can and they have. the product is fascinating: easy, fast, ever present, cloud integrated and intuitive. However, can Evernote sustain this position for half a decade? Absolutely not. Here's why: - the goal Evernote is chasing is to ambitious and is being chased by bigger dogs - in this field integration with OS is key. Microsoft and Apple clearly have the upper hand - viral he network effect of Evernote's biz model is not strong enough to keep people using the platform. The churn rate is very big. If you start using Apple notes is very hard to switch, for example. I've been following this company for a while, and as much as I respect their execution I simply think this number is a reflection of current market conditions, nothing more. Hence cast my vote for a bubble.