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You think estimating that AI will be impactful but won't deliver the singularity is incredibly strange? I'm struggling to imagine what a non-strange statement w
by dullcrisp 3y ago
You think estimating that AI will be impactful but won't deliver the singularity is incredibly strange? I'm struggling to imagine what a non-strange statement would be to you.
- nwiswell 3y agoI do think it's very weird that the upper bound is presented with confidence, but the lower bound is not, yes. I also think that it's weird because the one-third figure itself appears to have materialized from nothing but hype and wishful thinking, so why is it an upper bound? No singularity required -- even just human-level AGI would clearly be more than a one-third GDP impact.