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> now the West is distracted from Ukraine by Hamas-v-Israel Media, perhaps. No one else is. Hamas is a tiny sideshow. The Kremlin wants people to think the Wes

> now the West is distracted from Ukraine by Hamas-v-Israel Media, perhaps. No one else is. Hamas is a tiny sideshow. The Kremlin wants people to think the West is distracted. Note that TSMC has (or is building) fabs in USA and Germany. I think an invasion of Taiwan is far less likely now than it was 2+ years ago, but if it did happen it would reduce TSMC's production capacity, not eliminate it. They'd just have to prioritise the important stuff and put iPhone production on hold.

lproven 3y ago
> Media, perhaps. No one else is. Firstly, I think that's an artificial distinction. Secondly, I am seeing the almost total end of Russia/Ukraine discussion on the half a dozen social media sites I use, totally replaced by Palestine/Israel. (Mostly pro-Palestine, which makes me an outlier.) So, no, I disagree. I think the distinction is incorrect and I think you're wrong anyway. > Hamas is a tiny sideshow. Overall I'd tend to agree. It's a regional skirmish as opposed to a former superpower making moves that could precipitate WW3. > The Kremlin wants people to think the West is distracted. I would rephrase that: the Kremlin wants the people in the West to be distracted. Not the same. > Note that TSMC has (or is building) fabs in USA and Germany. I'm well aware. They are far off and won't be ready for years. > I think an invasion of Taiwan is far less likely now than it was 2+ years ago I disagree; I think it's getting more urgent, for the same reasons you just gave. _Because_ there are distractions currently, _because_ there are other fabs under construction. > but if it did happen it would reduce TSMC's production capacity, not eliminate it. Totally wrong, according to TSMC and the Taiwanese gov't and industry observers and, well, everyone. > They'd just have to prioritise the important stuff Who decides? According to what? > put iPhone production on hold. What if that's the most profitable part? Again, who chooses? I am sorry but I have to say I think every single point you make here is backwards and actively not just wrong but the opposite of the case.

lproven 3y ago

> Media, perhaps. No one else is. Firstly, I think that's an artificial distinction. Secondly, I am seeing the almost total end of Russia/Ukraine discussion on the half a dozen social media sites I use, totally replaced by Palestine/Israel. (Mostly pro-Palestine, which makes me an outlier.) So, no, I disagree. I think the distinction is incorrect and I think you're wrong anyway. > Hamas is a tiny sideshow. Overall I'd tend to agree. It's a regional skirmish as opposed to a former superpower making moves that could precipitate WW3. > The Kremlin wants people to think the West is distracted. I would rephrase that: the Kremlin wants the people in the West to be distracted. Not the same. > Note that TSMC has (or is building) fabs in USA and Germany. I'm well aware. They are far off and won't be ready for years. > I think an invasion of Taiwan is far less likely now than it was 2+ years ago I disagree; I think it's getting more urgent, for the same reasons you just gave. _Because_ there are distractions currently, _because_ there are other fabs under construction. > but if it did happen it would reduce TSMC's production capacity, not eliminate it. Totally wrong, according to TSMC and the Taiwanese gov't and industry observers and, well, everyone. > They'd just have to prioritise the important stuff Who decides? According to what? > put iPhone production on hold. What if that's the most profitable part? Again, who chooses? I am sorry but I have to say I think every single point you make here is backwards and actively not just wrong but the opposite of the case.