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ChatGPT intentionally plows through low-confidence scenarios. It just tries to do its best because "I dunno" is reliably low-utility while a hallucination doesn
by jdewerd 3y ago
ChatGPT intentionally plows through low-confidence scenarios. It just tries to do its best because "I dunno" is reliably low-utility while a hallucination doesn't gamble lives. It errs on the side of hallucination by design: if you alter the RLHF feedback, you can alter the confidence level.
In FSD, as you point out, the stakes are higher. It makes a different design decision: it slows down in low-confidence situations. Just like a person. If you watch a FSD video, you'll see that most of the human interventions happen because FSD lost confidence in a tricky scenario and halted the car even though the pathing ultimately wound up being correct. This won't solve every edge case, but neither do humans -- the bar is (or should be) "better than human," not "perfect," otherwise we are sacrificing lives on principle.
I have no idea if training will stall out half way through the march of 9s. It might, but if it does, it won't be because there is no high level strategy to control hallucinations. That already exists.
- cmeacham98 3y agoTesla sold their investors and customers on "full self driving", not "self driving where you must always have your hands on the wheel ready to take over". Customers are willing to tolerate the latter right now because they believe the former is still in development.
- jdewerd 3y agoDo you think it isn't? I'm not here to argue that the overly enthusiastic timetables weren't cringe. They definitely were. I'm just here because there seems to be consensus that FSD is doomed and it doesn't remotely seem that way to me.
- cmeacham98 3y agoOf course it's in development, but if I'm right that ML cannot solve this problem then a lot of that development is wasted. My point is that in the long run, Tesla cannot solve the ML edge cases by having a human available to take over at a split second notice.
- jdewerd 3y agoMaybe, but I think that feedback and training data from supervised driving will continue to propel Tesla along the march of 9s until FSD has genuine superhuman performance. Of course, there is only one way to find out. Time will tell.