6 ms·

RemindMe! 5 years

by tnel77 3y ago

RemindMe! 5 years

dragontamer 3y ago
Or you could just look at the last 15 years and stop pretending that BTC is anything new. If BTC were a person, it'd be entering high school and thinking about a student-driver license. We've got an extensive history to draw upon now.
- Geisterde 3y ago
  A history of bitcoin capturing orders of magnitude more value over basically any 4 year period, yea, the records pretty good for an emerging money.
  - desert_rue 3y ago
    That doesn’t mean it will continue to rise in the future. It also isn’t tied to anything outside of these very expensive exchanges. I can’t use bitcoin to buy a candy bar or pay someone to fix my toilet. Nor is there intrinsic worth to it.
    - Geisterde 3y ago
      Value is subjective, not intrinsic. It is guarenteed to rise like everything else of limited supply; the value of fiat currencies must necessarily decrease over time in their operation, because the base monetary unit can only be issued as credit which must be paid back at interest. Were the value of fiat currencies to increase in any meaningful sense, it will result in widespread defaults in the banking sector.
      - dragontamer 3y ago
        > It is guarenteed to rise like everything else of limited supply They aren't making any more VHS copies of Toy Story, which IIRC was estimated to be ~21 Million copies of tape.
        Geisterde 3y ago
        You are being pedantic, bitcoin has monetary qualities that put it in contention in this regard.
        dragontamer 3y ago
        Okay. * Zimbabwean dollars aren't being made anymore. * Lunacoins / Terracoin isn't being made anymore. Do these have any reason to go up? And they are (were) real currencies / cryptocoins.
        latchkey 3y ago
        > * Lunacoins / Terracoin isn't being made anymore.* Actually, it is. There is even activity in the repos. https://github.com/terra-money https://github.com/terra-money People still trade it too: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/terra-luna-v2/ https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/terra-luna-v2/ I don't agree with it personally, but just clarifying a fact.
        dragontamer 3y ago
        I'm not talking about terra-luna v2. I'm talking about v1.
        Geisterde 3y ago
        Zimbabwean dollars foretell the fate of all paper currencies, they might have some monetary qualities, but they lack the important bits like hardness.
        dragontamer 3y ago
        Lunacoins / Terracoin foretell the fate of all cryptocurrencies. They might have some monetary qualities, but they lack the important bits like hardness. The problem with vapid statements is that I can just copy/paste your argument and change the words around... demonstrating how its a useless phrase all together. ----------- "Inflation Hedge" would be a truly useful thing. That's why it sticks, because people desperately want to prove BTC to be useful. Unfortunately, the stats just don't work out, so you see people twisting the meaning of "inflation" and "hedge" in this very thread. "Hedges" are things that have high amounts of correlation. (Ex: Hedge on gasoline would be buying assets correlated with gasoline. Exxon, or maybe Brent Crude). And the r-value / correlations can be readily demonstrated. Either positive r-value or negative, it doesn't matter. The important bit is that there's a strong correlation (or anti-correlation).
    - tnel77 3y ago
      Why not? You could open a store and accept it as a method of payment.
- c22 3y ago
  It's funny cause normally we think of high-school aged student drivers as still kinda young and inexperienced. But yeah, now that you put it like that I guess 15 years is pretty ancient for a currency.
- tnel77 3y ago
  I’m not pretending Bitcoin is new. My comment was because of that fact. It’s the same old tired song and dance. Bitcoin goes up: “these idiot kids got lucky.” Bitcoin goes down: “about time those idiots learn their lesson! Bitcoin’s a scam!” Bitcoin is undeniably volatile, but it is becoming less volatile over time and it continues to (on an investment period longer than a year or so) be a fantastic hedge against inflation. Even if you buy stocks, the general consensus is that you should be looking at a longer timeframe to ensure you can handle any short-term losses.
  - dragontamer 3y ago
    > It’s the same old tired song and dance. Yeah. "BTC Is an inflation hedge". Then BTC doesn't protect you from inflation. Then "Inflation hedge doesn't mean inflation or hedge, it really means..." I'm tired of BTC community defining terms, and then redefining them when the statistics don't work out in their favor. I recognize that BTC community wants "number goes up", but just stick with that and be honest with yourself. Don't invent new bullshit terms for bullshit reasons that are discarded almost immediately. > be a fantastic hedge against inflation. Holy crap here we go again.
jkaptur 3y ago
What is going to be different about the next five years vs. the past five years? The point is that inflation happened and the price of Bitcoin in USD went down. Why is that pattern going to change?

RemindMe! 5 years

by tnel77 3y ago

RemindMe! 5 years

Or you could just look at the last 15 years and stop pretending that BTC is anything new. If BTC were a person, it'd be entering high school and thinking about a student-driver license. We've got an extensive history to draw upon now.

Geisterde 3y ago
A history of bitcoin capturing orders of magnitude more value over basically any 4 year period, yea, the records pretty good for an emerging money.
- desert_rue 3y ago
  That doesn’t mean it will continue to rise in the future. It also isn’t tied to anything outside of these very expensive exchanges. I can’t use bitcoin to buy a candy bar or pay someone to fix my toilet. Nor is there intrinsic worth to it.
  - Geisterde 3y ago
    Value is subjective, not intrinsic. It is guarenteed to rise like everything else of limited supply; the value of fiat currencies must necessarily decrease over time in their operation, because the base monetary unit can only be issued as credit which must be paid back at interest. Were the value of fiat currencies to increase in any meaningful sense, it will result in widespread defaults in the banking sector.
    - dragontamer 3y ago
      > It is guarenteed to rise like everything else of limited supply They aren't making any more VHS copies of Toy Story, which IIRC was estimated to be ~21 Million copies of tape.
      - Geisterde 3y ago
        You are being pedantic, bitcoin has monetary qualities that put it in contention in this regard.
        dragontamer 3y ago
        Okay. * Zimbabwean dollars aren't being made anymore. * Lunacoins / Terracoin isn't being made anymore. Do these have any reason to go up? And they are (were) real currencies / cryptocoins.
        latchkey 3y ago
        > * Lunacoins / Terracoin isn't being made anymore.* Actually, it is. There is even activity in the repos. https://github.com/terra-money https://github.com/terra-money People still trade it too: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/terra-luna-v2/ https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/terra-luna-v2/ I don't agree with it personally, but just clarifying a fact.
        dragontamer 3y ago
        I'm not talking about terra-luna v2. I'm talking about v1.
        Geisterde 3y ago
        Zimbabwean dollars foretell the fate of all paper currencies, they might have some monetary qualities, but they lack the important bits like hardness.
        dragontamer 3y ago
        Lunacoins / Terracoin foretell the fate of all cryptocurrencies. They might have some monetary qualities, but they lack the important bits like hardness. The problem with vapid statements is that I can just copy/paste your argument and change the words around... demonstrating how its a useless phrase all together. ----------- "Inflation Hedge" would be a truly useful thing. That's why it sticks, because people desperately want to prove BTC to be useful. Unfortunately, the stats just don't work out, so you see people twisting the meaning of "inflation" and "hedge" in this very thread. "Hedges" are things that have high amounts of correlation. (Ex: Hedge on gasoline would be buying assets correlated with gasoline. Exxon, or maybe Brent Crude). And the r-value / correlations can be readily demonstrated. Either positive r-value or negative, it doesn't matter. The important bit is that there's a strong correlation (or anti-correlation).
  - tnel77 3y ago
    Why not? You could open a store and accept it as a method of payment.
c22 3y ago
It's funny cause normally we think of high-school aged student drivers as still kinda young and inexperienced. But yeah, now that you put it like that I guess 15 years is pretty ancient for a currency.
tnel77 3y ago
I’m not pretending Bitcoin is new. My comment was because of that fact. It’s the same old tired song and dance. Bitcoin goes up: “these idiot kids got lucky.” Bitcoin goes down: “about time those idiots learn their lesson! Bitcoin’s a scam!” Bitcoin is undeniably volatile, but it is becoming less volatile over time and it continues to (on an investment period longer than a year or so) be a fantastic hedge against inflation. Even if you buy stocks, the general consensus is that you should be looking at a longer timeframe to ensure you can handle any short-term losses.
- dragontamer 3y ago
  > It’s the same old tired song and dance. Yeah. "BTC Is an inflation hedge". Then BTC doesn't protect you from inflation. Then "Inflation hedge doesn't mean inflation or hedge, it really means..." I'm tired of BTC community defining terms, and then redefining them when the statistics don't work out in their favor. I recognize that BTC community wants "number goes up", but just stick with that and be honest with yourself. Don't invent new bullshit terms for bullshit reasons that are discarded almost immediately. > be a fantastic hedge against inflation. Holy crap here we go again.

jkaptur 3y ago

What is going to be different about the next five years vs. the past five years? The point is that inflation happened and the price of Bitcoin in USD went down. Why is that pattern going to change?