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This is a big dramatization of the Tesla situation. No consumer vehicle has a driverless system that tolerates inattention, they are merely driving aids. Nobody

by dangus 3y ago

This is a big dramatization of the Tesla situation. No consumer vehicle has a driverless system that tolerates inattention, they are merely driving aids. Nobody on the consumer market is claiming to be anywhere near level 5 fully autonomous driving. Tesla’s full self driving system is the only one on the consumer market that will drive on city streets for you in the form of beta software. Yes, it’s going to make you touch the wheel and prove you are alert. Which competitor doesn’t? Yes, it’s a beta that isn’t done. Yes, it will disengage at some point. Are there any other car makers with software that is further along? A Waymo driverless cab has a roof rack and all four corners of the vehicle covered with equipment that might cost up to five figures to produce and install. It isn’t a consumer product. The whole reason consumer automakers like Tesla don’t want to bother with that equipment is that it isn’t something that will ever make financial sense. Consumer personal vehicles are cost control exercises where every dollar and cent counts. When you buy a base model Tacoma and it has an 8” screen instead of a 12” screen, that’s a change that saved Toyota $5-10 at most, and that $5 or $10 matters. Your comment makes it sound like Tesla is in some kind of financial or competitive danger because of its autopilot/FSD feature, but I think that just isn’t true from a dollars and cents standpoint. If anything Tesla’s strategy has much higher profit margin potential due to its reliance on consumer grade equipment.

sokoloff 3y ago
> that $5 or $10 matters. That matters, but what almost surely matters more is providing a differentiation among the trim levels to justify the four-figure difference in prices.
ra7 3y ago
It doesn't matter what other consumer vehicles or Waymo offers, or their financial state (which wasn't point of my comment). Tesla is the one who has continuously promised they'd be L5 and have robotaxis "by end of the year" for years now. When questioned on their own promises, you can't turn around and say "It's a beta; no other car maker is further along". Of course, it's a successful business already because many consumers believed Tesla's (false) promises. If that's your bar, then very well. But they still haven't met their original stated goal and it doesn't look like they're going to anytime soon.
culturestate 3y ago
> No consumer vehicle has a driverless system that tolerates inattention... Mercedes's Drive Pilot (L3), which you can buy in a production car today, is explicitly advertised as allowing drivers to take their attention off the road and do other things in specific situations. It's not L5, but it'll absolutely tolerate inattention and let you e.g. pull out your iPad to wage an HN comment battle while it drives you from Berlin to Potsdam.
- dangus 3y ago
  > On suitable freeway sections and where there is high traffic density, DRIVE PILOT can offer to take over the dynamic driving task, up to the speed of 40 mph. https://group.mercedes-benz.com/innovation/product-innovation/autonomous-driving/drive-pilot-nevada.html https://group.mercedes-benz.com/innovation/product-innovatio...
- idopmstuff 3y ago
  > while it drives you from Berlin to Potsdam. This is maybe technically true but in practice not really correct. Some conditions to use it are (per https://www.mbusa.com/en/owners/manuals/drive-pilot https://www.mbusa.com/en/owners/manuals/drive-pilot): Clear lane markings on approved freeways Moderate to heavy traffic with speeds under 40 MPH Daytime lighting and clear weather So if it's night or raining or foggy, you can't use it for that drive. If there's no or little traffic, you can't use it for that drive. In circumstances in which you can use it, you're gonna be doing 40MPH in the right lane.
  - andsoitis 3y ago
    > If there's no or little traffic, you can't use it for that drive. So it needs other vehicles to orient itself?
    - porphyra 3y ago
      It doesn't, but it can't go faster than 40 mph so it wouldn't be pleasant to go 40 mph while people are zooming past you at 70 mph on the empty autobahn.
hn_throwaway_99 3y ago
> A Waymo driverless cab has a roof rack full of equipment that might cost up to five figures to produce and install. It isn’t a consumer product. The whole reason consumer automakers like Tesla don’t want to bother with that equipment is that it isn’t something that will ever make financial sense. Baloney. I, and many others (and as you point out, many Tesla owners already have) would pay considerably for true self driving that actually worked. That is, if I could get true self driving (meaning I could take a nap or read a book), I would easily pay for lidar and other advanced sensors. The reason I'd never trust Tesla's FSD claims is that I believe (like many of their own engineers) that their (really Musk's) "camera only" approach is foolhardy and unsafe.
- JAlexoid 3y ago
  FSD upgrade on a tesla is already low 4 figures...
- dangus 3y ago
  Tesla hardware 4.0 has a radar module. If Tesla gets their solution across the finish line, Waymo’s solution is instantly uncompetitive just from a hardware cost standpoint. The fact that they’re first to get higher level self driving working would become instantly irrelevant. I think of it like a format war. The winner isn’t usually the one that is the most technologically advanced. Elon is an idiot but he wasn’t wrong about the general idea of having a very low hardware cost. There’s almost no point in getting something working with exotic equipment.
  - hn_throwaway_99 3y ago
    > I think of it like a format war. The winner isn’t usually the one that is the most technologically advanced. The stakes are a tad different. I can accept the slightly lower visual quality of VHS compared to Beta. For self driving, if the lower technological level results in a slightly higher chance of "you're dead", I'm not going to be cavalier about what I choose.
    - dangus 3y ago
adolph 3y ago
> Tesla’s full self driving system is the only one on the consumer market that will drive on city streets for you in the form of beta software. Why do people ignore comma.ai? They call it ADAS instead of FSD? Their marketing is confusing because they just provide hardware for MIT license OSS?

by dangus 3y ago

sokoloff 3y ago

> that $5 or $10 matters. That matters, but what almost surely matters more is providing a differentiation among the trim levels to justify the four-figure difference in prices.

ra7 3y ago

It doesn't matter what other consumer vehicles or Waymo offers, or their financial state (which wasn't point of my comment). Tesla is the one who has continuously promised they'd be L5 and have robotaxis "by end of the year" for years now. When questioned on their own promises, you can't turn around and say "It's a beta; no other car maker is further along". Of course, it's a successful business already because many consumers believed Tesla's (false) promises. If that's your bar, then very well. But they still haven't met their original stated goal and it doesn't look like they're going to anytime soon.

culturestate 3y ago

> No consumer vehicle has a driverless system that tolerates inattention... Mercedes's Drive Pilot (L3), which you can buy in a production car today, is explicitly advertised as allowing drivers to take their attention off the road and do other things in specific situations. It's not L5, but it'll absolutely tolerate inattention and let you e.g. pull out your iPad to wage an HN comment battle while it drives you from Berlin to Potsdam.

dangus 3y ago
> On suitable freeway sections and where there is high traffic density, DRIVE PILOT can offer to take over the dynamic driving task, up to the speed of 40 mph. https://group.mercedes-benz.com/innovation/product-innovation/autonomous-driving/drive-pilot-nevada.html https://group.mercedes-benz.com/innovation/product-innovatio...
idopmstuff 3y ago
> while it drives you from Berlin to Potsdam. This is maybe technically true but in practice not really correct. Some conditions to use it are (per https://www.mbusa.com/en/owners/manuals/drive-pilot https://www.mbusa.com/en/owners/manuals/drive-pilot): Clear lane markings on approved freeways Moderate to heavy traffic with speeds under 40 MPH Daytime lighting and clear weather So if it's night or raining or foggy, you can't use it for that drive. If there's no or little traffic, you can't use it for that drive. In circumstances in which you can use it, you're gonna be doing 40MPH in the right lane.
- andsoitis 3y ago
  > If there's no or little traffic, you can't use it for that drive. So it needs other vehicles to orient itself?
  - porphyra 3y ago
    It doesn't, but it can't go faster than 40 mph so it wouldn't be pleasant to go 40 mph while people are zooming past you at 70 mph on the empty autobahn.

hn_throwaway_99 3y ago

> A Waymo driverless cab has a roof rack full of equipment that might cost up to five figures to produce and install. It isn’t a consumer product. The whole reason consumer automakers like Tesla don’t want to bother with that equipment is that it isn’t something that will ever make financial sense. Baloney. I, and many others (and as you point out, many Tesla owners already have) would pay considerably for true self driving that actually worked. That is, if I could get true self driving (meaning I could take a nap or read a book), I would easily pay for lidar and other advanced sensors. The reason I'd never trust Tesla's FSD claims is that I believe (like many of their own engineers) that their (really Musk's) "camera only" approach is foolhardy and unsafe.

JAlexoid 3y ago
FSD upgrade on a tesla is already low 4 figures...
dangus 3y ago
Tesla hardware 4.0 has a radar module. If Tesla gets their solution across the finish line, Waymo’s solution is instantly uncompetitive just from a hardware cost standpoint. The fact that they’re first to get higher level self driving working would become instantly irrelevant. I think of it like a format war. The winner isn’t usually the one that is the most technologically advanced. Elon is an idiot but he wasn’t wrong about the general idea of having a very low hardware cost. There’s almost no point in getting something working with exotic equipment.
- hn_throwaway_99 3y ago
  > I think of it like a format war. The winner isn’t usually the one that is the most technologically advanced. The stakes are a tad different. I can accept the slightly lower visual quality of VHS compared to Beta. For self driving, if the lower technological level results in a slightly higher chance of "you're dead", I'm not going to be cavalier about what I choose.
  - dangus 3y ago

adolph 3y ago

> Tesla’s full self driving system is the only one on the consumer market that will drive on city streets for you in the form of beta software. Why do people ignore comma.ai? They call it ADAS instead of FSD? Their marketing is confusing because they just provide hardware for MIT license OSS?