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Do you have sources on those predictions moving up “significantly” because of ChatGPT? Predicting words that sound good together, as a result of a prompt, based
by phatskat 3y ago
Do you have sources on those predictions moving up “significantly” because of ChatGPT? Predicting words that sound good together, as a result of a prompt, based on a pre trained set of data is vastly different from AGI.
- medvezhenok 3y agoI can't find the exact article I read it in at the moment, but ChatGPT was definitely a turning point where a bunch of people reeled in their predictions by a decade. (The median expert prediction was between 2040-2060 previously, now quite a few people have moved that timeline to before 2035). https://medium.com/@paul.k.pallaghy/chatgpt-did-any-one-remotely-predict-the-full-capabilities-and-success-of-llms-956a52535a89 https://medium.com/@paul.k.pallaghy/chatgpt-did-any-one-remo... https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hQysqfSEzciRazx8k/forecasting-thread-ai-timelines https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hQysqfSEzciRazx8k/forecastin...