3 ms·

Right, and while I'm no expert in this field I vaguely recall some proposals that consciousness / self-awareness fell out of planning and the need for a repre

Right, and while I'm no expert in this field I vaguely recall some proposals that consciousness / self-awareness fell out of planning and the need for a representation of your future / hypothetical self in those plans. If so, that would make it very important or a harmless side effect of something very important. I was mildly upset to see characters in Blindsight repeatedly bring up the "consciousness is pointless" thesis without any allusion to the common counterarguments, if only to dismiss them in the context of the story. But maybe that makes for better horror? 3 Body Problem did the same thing. It repeatedly presented the strengths of the Dark Forest Fermi paradox solution, but I don't think it ever presented the weaknesses, not even to lampshade. I usually try appreciate what's in a story rather than whine about what it "should have done" (which is a recipe for never enjoying anything) but in this case I've seen it negatively affect people who didn't already have the "antidote" background knowledge. I've seen this in online communities (you'd think there would always be at least one smartass in each sci-fi thread but I guess not) and I've seen it in person with a coworker, so I wonder if it isn't a bit of an ethics issue. Ah well, on the scale of ethics issues this one is pretty minor. Most people are stable enough to handle spooky alien stories, and maybe the double take is part of the fun.

polotics 3y ago
Could you point us to what these weaknesses are? Thank You!
- jdewerd 3y ago
  Sure, a few brief points. 1: Remember that 3BP had to break the speed of light (among other things) to make the story work. A first strike is a huge gamble, you have to make sure your shot in the dark kills the monster rather than makes it angry. If you put information lag back into the equation (not to mention other intelligence gathering and military imperfections), the confidence that you need to make the game theory work starts to look incredibly steep. 2: Nearby grabby aliens are highly unlikely in any event because otherwise they would have grabbed already. The time to colonize the galaxy (millions of years) is tiny compared to likely variation in the timescale on which interstellar-capable life emerged and evolved (billions of years). If you turn the colonization of the galaxy into a 2 hour movie and separate it into periods of "no aliens," "sparse aliens," and "dense aliens," the "sparse aliens" section is one small scene lasting seconds. It would take an enormous feat of synchronization for us to be "born" into those few seconds rather than before or after (and "after" probably doesn't work because colonization stops development). "Sparse aliens" makes for great sci-fi, so we are predisposed to imagine that it is more likely than it actually is. It's like Jurassic Park: the dinosaurs don't always escape because the mathematics of chaos theory dictate that it would be impossible to put resurrected dinosaurs in a zoo, they escape because otherwise I wouldn't buy a movie ticket (and neither would you). 3: Suppose that the situation has defied the odds and there are spooky aliens out there just waiting to kill us. What's our move? Hide? Or grow aggressively? The "hide" option is already a bust, so we should grow aggressively. Everyone else will do the same. Just as the desirability of a first-strike hinges on unlikely confidence in the ability to effectively carry out complete retaliation-eliminating destruction on a rapidly advancing adversary far in the future, the desirability of hiding hinges on unlikely confidence in the ability to hide from adversaries with truly staggering surveillance options. Even if the forest is full of monsters, we do not expect them to hide. I love the 3BP trilogy and the atmosphere of horror that it builds, I just don't think its thesis works very well IRL. Which is a good thing :)

polotics 3y ago

Could you point us to what these weaknesses are? Thank You!

jdewerd 3y ago
Sure, a few brief points. 1: Remember that 3BP had to break the speed of light (among other things) to make the story work. A first strike is a huge gamble, you have to make sure your shot in the dark kills the monster rather than makes it angry. If you put information lag back into the equation (not to mention other intelligence gathering and military imperfections), the confidence that you need to make the game theory work starts to look incredibly steep. 2: Nearby grabby aliens are highly unlikely in any event because otherwise they would have grabbed already. The time to colonize the galaxy (millions of years) is tiny compared to likely variation in the timescale on which interstellar-capable life emerged and evolved (billions of years). If you turn the colonization of the galaxy into a 2 hour movie and separate it into periods of "no aliens," "sparse aliens," and "dense aliens," the "sparse aliens" section is one small scene lasting seconds. It would take an enormous feat of synchronization for us to be "born" into those few seconds rather than before or after (and "after" probably doesn't work because colonization stops development). "Sparse aliens" makes for great sci-fi, so we are predisposed to imagine that it is more likely than it actually is. It's like Jurassic Park: the dinosaurs don't always escape because the mathematics of chaos theory dictate that it would be impossible to put resurrected dinosaurs in a zoo, they escape because otherwise I wouldn't buy a movie ticket (and neither would you). 3: Suppose that the situation has defied the odds and there are spooky aliens out there just waiting to kill us. What's our move? Hide? Or grow aggressively? The "hide" option is already a bust, so we should grow aggressively. Everyone else will do the same. Just as the desirability of a first-strike hinges on unlikely confidence in the ability to effectively carry out complete retaliation-eliminating destruction on a rapidly advancing adversary far in the future, the desirability of hiding hinges on unlikely confidence in the ability to hide from adversaries with truly staggering surveillance options. Even if the forest is full of monsters, we do not expect them to hide. I love the 3BP trilogy and the atmosphere of horror that it builds, I just don't think its thesis works very well IRL. Which is a good thing :)