4 ms·

You're missing the point of comparison -- fully autonomous vehicles have been a year away for 15 years now. Much like generative AI will be a year away from mak

by mjr00 3y ago

You're missing the point of comparison -- fully autonomous vehicles have been a year away for 15 years now. Much like generative AI will be a year away from making artists obsolete for the next 15 years. Forget replacing Hollywood and the game industry. Show me one hit movie or game that was generated by AI. Show me a hit song that was generated by AI. Show me a widely beloved novel, or even a short story, that was written by an LLM. A single one! Don't tell me the entire industry is going to die off at some indeterminate point in the future if you can't show a single example!

echelon 3y ago
> Show me a hit song that was generated by AI. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/19/arts/music/ai-drake-the-weeknd-fake.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/19/arts/music/ai-drake-the-w... AI Hub had half a million people in it creating music before the RIAA got it taken down. https://torrentfreak.com/popular-ai-hub-discord-taken-down-following-copyright-complaints-231005/ https://torrentfreak.com/popular-ai-hub-discord-taken-down-f... > Show me one hit movie or game that was generated by AI. This is just getting started. The early results are getting serious attention. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrjL_TSOFrI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrjL_TSOFrI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-8DT5Q8kzI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-8DT5Q8kzI https://twitter.com/pika_labs/status/1729510078959497562 https://twitter.com/pika_labs/status/1729510078959497562 Camera and scene controllability is almost here. Temporal stability and the uncanniness are being solved. Indie game developers have been incorporating AI assets (art, vocals, textures, sprites) in their games for over a year already: https://www.reddit.com/r/gamedev/comments/wtpgqo/anyone_using_aigenerated_images_for_games/ https://www.reddit.com/r/gamedev/comments/wtpgqo/anyone_usin...
- mjr00 3y ago
  The "AI" Drake/The Weeknd song was not created by AI -- it used AI voice synthesis to recreate Drake/The Weeknd's vocals on top of a human-created song. If you're considering that to be AI-generated, I would point you to the many songs using vocals by Hatsune Miku which have been made for the past 15+ years to say that this is nothing new. The rest of the stuff you've created is meme content, which while funny, is not a serious threat to Hollywood.
ben_w 3y ago
Think about what you're asking for. Until GenAI is good enough, there will be zero examples. But the moment it becomes good enough, it's game over for everyone in that field of work — at current gpt-4-1106-preview prices, it's cheaper to generate a complete new novel from scratch than to buy a single copy of a paperback in a closing-down sale. There's no intermediate state where the AI and the humans are both competitive on the marketplace, just an adjustment period where businesses and employees don't yet realise they're redundant. And an endless tide of mediocrity overwhelming the publishers until then because the cost of creation is so low. And that transition… is kinda already happening with image generation, where the AI temporarily wins awards until the awarding body decides AI aren't allowed to. The impression I have is that artists who like their role turning into "editor" seem to be fine with this, the ones who actually enjoyed coming up with novel art from scratch seem to resent it. (It's entirely possible it will take ages to get good enough in other domains, but the evidence you're asking for will only come when it's too late to matter).
- bossyTeacher 3y ago
  > But the moment it becomes good enough, it's game over for everyone in that field of work HN really fails to see this. The writing is on the wall. But HN keeps writing about their techno utopia fantasies very reminiscent of the comic strip about the nerd who thought that having a super strong encryption would somehow keep his data totally safe (hint: it didn't). The reality is likely to be that most people will be unemployed and then re-employed into low-value min-wage soul-destroying dead-end jobs while all the profits from AI will go towards the people who financed the very development of AI and then used dirty tactics to destroy small companies from the market (see AI 1%rs).
  - ben_w 3y ago
    What you fear is certainly a possibility. There was a story a while back about a society where ever more jobs are done by AI, eventually including the police. In such a situation (and in the story) it would be cheap enough to keep all the unemployed people housed and fed with all that automation; in the story the people have no freedom, the robots keep them from going too far from their free apartment. That could totally happen, even in our various current governments in the real world, leaders can be very divorced from the lives of those at the bottom — "let them eat cake" may not have really come from Marie Antoinette, but the cliché exists for a reason. I didn't like the twist for the final chapter where the lead character was rescued by a Deus Ex Machina in the form of winning a surprise two-person ticket to a fully automated UBI trust fund based in Australia, but my problem was with the tonal shift of the story rather than plausibility given the prior world building. Likewise in reality, while the cliché "a rising tide lifts all boats" is often wrong because of the metaphorical equivalent of many not being maintained in a seaworthy state, technological advances do change the lives of even the poorest. My 18 month old iPhone SE can run some Stable Diffusion models locally, in addition to being a near-real-time audio and visual translator, a route finder, and having some limited healthcare functions. The wealth will concentrate unless governments take special care to prevent that, but it takes active malice (which can and does happen) to prevent many of the benefits from reaching even the worst-off.

by mjr00 3y ago

echelon 3y ago

> Show me a hit song that was generated by AI. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/19/arts/music/ai-drake-the-weeknd-fake.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/19/arts/music/ai-drake-the-w... AI Hub had half a million people in it creating music before the RIAA got it taken down. https://torrentfreak.com/popular-ai-hub-discord-taken-down-following-copyright-complaints-231005/ https://torrentfreak.com/popular-ai-hub-discord-taken-down-f... > Show me one hit movie or game that was generated by AI. This is just getting started. The early results are getting serious attention. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrjL_TSOFrI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrjL_TSOFrI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-8DT5Q8kzI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-8DT5Q8kzI https://twitter.com/pika_labs/status/1729510078959497562 https://twitter.com/pika_labs/status/1729510078959497562 Camera and scene controllability is almost here. Temporal stability and the uncanniness are being solved. Indie game developers have been incorporating AI assets (art, vocals, textures, sprites) in their games for over a year already: https://www.reddit.com/r/gamedev/comments/wtpgqo/anyone_using_aigenerated_images_for_games/ https://www.reddit.com/r/gamedev/comments/wtpgqo/anyone_usin...

mjr00 3y ago
The "AI" Drake/The Weeknd song was not created by AI -- it used AI voice synthesis to recreate Drake/The Weeknd's vocals on top of a human-created song. If you're considering that to be AI-generated, I would point you to the many songs using vocals by Hatsune Miku which have been made for the past 15+ years to say that this is nothing new. The rest of the stuff you've created is meme content, which while funny, is not a serious threat to Hollywood.

ben_w 3y ago

Think about what you're asking for. Until GenAI is good enough, there will be zero examples. But the moment it becomes good enough, it's game over for everyone in that field of work — at current gpt-4-1106-preview prices, it's cheaper to generate a complete new novel from scratch than to buy a single copy of a paperback in a closing-down sale. There's no intermediate state where the AI and the humans are both competitive on the marketplace, just an adjustment period where businesses and employees don't yet realise they're redundant. And an endless tide of mediocrity overwhelming the publishers until then because the cost of creation is so low. And that transition… is kinda already happening with image generation, where the AI temporarily wins awards until the awarding body decides AI aren't allowed to. The impression I have is that artists who like their role turning into "editor" seem to be fine with this, the ones who actually enjoyed coming up with novel art from scratch seem to resent it. (It's entirely possible it will take ages to get good enough in other domains, but the evidence you're asking for will only come when it's too late to matter).

bossyTeacher 3y ago
> But the moment it becomes good enough, it's game over for everyone in that field of work HN really fails to see this. The writing is on the wall. But HN keeps writing about their techno utopia fantasies very reminiscent of the comic strip about the nerd who thought that having a super strong encryption would somehow keep his data totally safe (hint: it didn't). The reality is likely to be that most people will be unemployed and then re-employed into low-value min-wage soul-destroying dead-end jobs while all the profits from AI will go towards the people who financed the very development of AI and then used dirty tactics to destroy small companies from the market (see AI 1%rs).
- ben_w 3y ago
  What you fear is certainly a possibility. There was a story a while back about a society where ever more jobs are done by AI, eventually including the police. In such a situation (and in the story) it would be cheap enough to keep all the unemployed people housed and fed with all that automation; in the story the people have no freedom, the robots keep them from going too far from their free apartment. That could totally happen, even in our various current governments in the real world, leaders can be very divorced from the lives of those at the bottom — "let them eat cake" may not have really come from Marie Antoinette, but the cliché exists for a reason. I didn't like the twist for the final chapter where the lead character was rescued by a Deus Ex Machina in the form of winning a surprise two-person ticket to a fully automated UBI trust fund based in Australia, but my problem was with the tonal shift of the story rather than plausibility given the prior world building. Likewise in reality, while the cliché "a rising tide lifts all boats" is often wrong because of the metaphorical equivalent of many not being maintained in a seaworthy state, technological advances do change the lives of even the poorest. My 18 month old iPhone SE can run some Stable Diffusion models locally, in addition to being a near-real-time audio and visual translator, a route finder, and having some limited healthcare functions. The wealth will concentrate unless governments take special care to prevent that, but it takes active malice (which can and does happen) to prevent many of the benefits from reaching even the worst-off.