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Comparing generative AI favorably to crypto is an odd choice, given that crypto and blockchain are the poster children for "massively overhyped tech that led to

by mjr00 3y ago

Comparing generative AI favorably to crypto is an odd choice, given that crypto and blockchain are the poster children for "massively overhyped tech that led to absolutely nothing."

echelon 3y ago
I'm comparing HN attitudes. People dismiss AI as if it were crypto. > that led to absolutely nothing. This is the part most of you are completely blind to. It's astonishing to me that you don't see the step function changes happening. I guess that means less competition, though. By the end of the year, anyone will be able to make brand new Taylor Swift music that sounds good. The average child will be able to animate short films. This is insane. Both the fact that sci-fi possibilities are tangibly right ahead of us, and the fact that so many people are dismissing it outright.
- bossyTeacher 3y ago
  You know you can make Taylor Swift music you know? Youtube has plenty of tutorials and the web has plenty of DAWs you can use that require no training that you cannot get on the internet. The sounds "good" bit has nothing to do with technology imo. If you have no skill, you won't be able to make good sounding Taylor Swift music but you will be able to make another entity make it for you. You don't need AI for this. You could contract the services of someone to do it, you could ask the Switfies communities to do it. You don't need AI for this. The only difference is that you will now be able to press a button and have something that resembles Swift music but I highly doubt you will be able to steer the output through the multidimensional output space towards something that falls within "good sounding Swift music* if you yourself have zero musical knowledge. You could still end up there randomly though. But what are the chances? Fairly low, I would say. Short films is the same. You are looking at music and films the same way a random biz manager looks at programmers when he says "I will give you a magical glove that enables you to type faster so you can complete your work much faster". What I think this tech will be good at is prototyping for people that already have the skills or knowledge of what the final product should look like
- mjr00 3y ago
  > By the end of the year, anyone will be able to make brand new Taylor Swift music that sounds good. The average child will be able to animate short films. But will I be able to listen to that music and watch those films in my fully autonomous vehicle which will be available in 2016... I mean 2020... I mean 2025... I mean 2040?
  - echelon 3y ago
    > But will I be able to listen to that music and watch those films in my fully autonomous vehicle which will be available in 2016... I mean 2020... I mean 2025... I mean 2040? Despite Waymo's current state, I don't think autonomous cars will be solved or deployed widely anytime soon. I do think Hollywood is about to be toast. Movies, music, games (non-engine, non-gameplay aspects), narrative fiction, etc. These techniques will impact different fields in different ways. Some will be outright washed over and remade entirely.
    - mjr00 3y ago
      You're missing the point of comparison -- fully autonomous vehicles have been a year away for 15 years now. Much like generative AI will be a year away from making artists obsolete for the next 15 years. Forget replacing Hollywood and the game industry. Show me one hit movie or game that was generated by AI. Show me a hit song that was generated by AI. Show me a widely beloved novel, or even a short story, that was written by an LLM. A single one! Don't tell me the entire industry is going to die off at some indeterminate point in the future if you can't show a single example!
      - echelon 3y ago
        > Show me a hit song that was generated by AI. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/19/arts/music/ai-drake-the-weeknd-fake.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/19/arts/music/ai-drake-the-w... AI Hub had half a million people in it creating music before the RIAA got it taken down. https://torrentfreak.com/popular-ai-hub-discord-taken-down-following-copyright-complaints-231005/ https://torrentfreak.com/popular-ai-hub-discord-taken-down-f... > Show me one hit movie or game that was generated by AI. This is just getting started. The early results are getting serious attention. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrjL_TSOFrI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrjL_TSOFrI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-8DT5Q8kzI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-8DT5Q8kzI https://twitter.com/pika_labs/status/1729510078959497562 https://twitter.com/pika_labs/status/1729510078959497562 Camera and scene controllability is almost here. Temporal stability and the uncanniness are being solved. Indie game developers have been incorporating AI assets (art, vocals, textures, sprites) in their games for over a year already: https://www.reddit.com/r/gamedev/comments/wtpgqo/anyone_using_aigenerated_images_for_games/ https://www.reddit.com/r/gamedev/comments/wtpgqo/anyone_usin...
- RandomLensman 3y ago
  The problem is that while those things might be true, their impact might be quite limited. Will all the kids do their own short films? Will people stop listening to Taylor Swift? More "trinkets and gadgets" is a continuation of the last decade, the real question is if things remain incremental (maybe up to a percent more GDP growth) or become truly transformational. Claims to the later do invite scrutiny.
- riversflow 3y ago
  > anyone will be able to make a brand new Taylor Swift I was with you until this. I think music is actually informative for what we can expect in visual arts and generative models generally; synths, drum machines, and music production equipment and software share very similar qualities with this new stuff, yet we still have rockstars like Swift.
  - echelon 3y ago
    Vocals are solved [1] and the workflows are getting better and better [2]. AI influencers and celebs are getting big [3], not to mention VTubers such as CodeMiko [4] and Hololive [5] are huge and increasingly AI-powered. People are absolutely willing to be addicted to following virtual personalities and artists. Gorillaz predate all of this AI stuff and they're pretty big. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K__IR3J58zU&list=PLRQ_sm_IcXRaQYkyoGayW8nyMm-l-MHjy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K__IR3J58zU&list=PLRQ_sm_IcX... [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zc3h9iKYKDs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zc3h9iKYKDs (dated by now, but shows the direction) [3] https://www.thestar.com/business/technology/these-people-do-not-exist-inside-the-rapidly-growing-world-of-ai-generated-instagram-influencers/article_ca1d9762-943f-11ee-97a9-4bd0b9660726.html https://www.thestar.com/business/technology/these-people-do-... [4] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1IV7TBFTNl4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1IV7TBFTNl4 [5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hololive_Production https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hololive_Production
    - riversflow 3y ago
      I know of all that, hell I was listening to Plastic Beach when it came out. My point is that EDM and modern Pop coexist with older forms of music. I don't think new ways of creating art are zero-sum, they create new demand.
  - saulpw 3y ago
    Taylor Swift is a personality, not a musical genius.
- morelisp 3y ago
  But we don't need more Taylor Swift music. We especially don't need more "I can't believe it's not Taylor Swift" music which is more realistically what the AIs will get you. If you could make (metaphorically) more Taylor Swifts that might be interesting. But it doesn't do that.

by mjr00 3y ago

Comparing generative AI favorably to crypto is an odd choice, given that crypto and blockchain are the poster children for "massively overhyped tech that led to absolutely nothing."

echelon 3y ago

I'm comparing HN attitudes. People dismiss AI as if it were crypto. > that led to absolutely nothing. This is the part most of you are completely blind to. It's astonishing to me that you don't see the step function changes happening. I guess that means less competition, though. By the end of the year, anyone will be able to make brand new Taylor Swift music that sounds good. The average child will be able to animate short films. This is insane. Both the fact that sci-fi possibilities are tangibly right ahead of us, and the fact that so many people are dismissing it outright.

bossyTeacher 3y ago
You know you can make Taylor Swift music you know? Youtube has plenty of tutorials and the web has plenty of DAWs you can use that require no training that you cannot get on the internet. The sounds "good" bit has nothing to do with technology imo. If you have no skill, you won't be able to make good sounding Taylor Swift music but you will be able to make another entity make it for you. You don't need AI for this. You could contract the services of someone to do it, you could ask the Switfies communities to do it. You don't need AI for this. The only difference is that you will now be able to press a button and have something that resembles Swift music but I highly doubt you will be able to steer the output through the multidimensional output space towards something that falls within "good sounding Swift music* if you yourself have zero musical knowledge. You could still end up there randomly though. But what are the chances? Fairly low, I would say. Short films is the same. You are looking at music and films the same way a random biz manager looks at programmers when he says "I will give you a magical glove that enables you to type faster so you can complete your work much faster". What I think this tech will be good at is prototyping for people that already have the skills or knowledge of what the final product should look like
mjr00 3y ago
> By the end of the year, anyone will be able to make brand new Taylor Swift music that sounds good. The average child will be able to animate short films. But will I be able to listen to that music and watch those films in my fully autonomous vehicle which will be available in 2016... I mean 2020... I mean 2025... I mean 2040?
- echelon 3y ago
  > But will I be able to listen to that music and watch those films in my fully autonomous vehicle which will be available in 2016... I mean 2020... I mean 2025... I mean 2040? Despite Waymo's current state, I don't think autonomous cars will be solved or deployed widely anytime soon. I do think Hollywood is about to be toast. Movies, music, games (non-engine, non-gameplay aspects), narrative fiction, etc. These techniques will impact different fields in different ways. Some will be outright washed over and remade entirely.
  - mjr00 3y ago
    You're missing the point of comparison -- fully autonomous vehicles have been a year away for 15 years now. Much like generative AI will be a year away from making artists obsolete for the next 15 years. Forget replacing Hollywood and the game industry. Show me one hit movie or game that was generated by AI. Show me a hit song that was generated by AI. Show me a widely beloved novel, or even a short story, that was written by an LLM. A single one! Don't tell me the entire industry is going to die off at some indeterminate point in the future if you can't show a single example!
    - echelon 3y ago
      > Show me a hit song that was generated by AI. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/19/arts/music/ai-drake-the-weeknd-fake.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/19/arts/music/ai-drake-the-w... AI Hub had half a million people in it creating music before the RIAA got it taken down. https://torrentfreak.com/popular-ai-hub-discord-taken-down-following-copyright-complaints-231005/ https://torrentfreak.com/popular-ai-hub-discord-taken-down-f... > Show me one hit movie or game that was generated by AI. This is just getting started. The early results are getting serious attention. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrjL_TSOFrI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrjL_TSOFrI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-8DT5Q8kzI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-8DT5Q8kzI https://twitter.com/pika_labs/status/1729510078959497562 https://twitter.com/pika_labs/status/1729510078959497562 Camera and scene controllability is almost here. Temporal stability and the uncanniness are being solved. Indie game developers have been incorporating AI assets (art, vocals, textures, sprites) in their games for over a year already: https://www.reddit.com/r/gamedev/comments/wtpgqo/anyone_using_aigenerated_images_for_games/ https://www.reddit.com/r/gamedev/comments/wtpgqo/anyone_usin...
RandomLensman 3y ago
The problem is that while those things might be true, their impact might be quite limited. Will all the kids do their own short films? Will people stop listening to Taylor Swift? More "trinkets and gadgets" is a continuation of the last decade, the real question is if things remain incremental (maybe up to a percent more GDP growth) or become truly transformational. Claims to the later do invite scrutiny.
riversflow 3y ago
> anyone will be able to make a brand new Taylor Swift I was with you until this. I think music is actually informative for what we can expect in visual arts and generative models generally; synths, drum machines, and music production equipment and software share very similar qualities with this new stuff, yet we still have rockstars like Swift.
- echelon 3y ago
  Vocals are solved [1] and the workflows are getting better and better [2]. AI influencers and celebs are getting big [3], not to mention VTubers such as CodeMiko [4] and Hololive [5] are huge and increasingly AI-powered. People are absolutely willing to be addicted to following virtual personalities and artists. Gorillaz predate all of this AI stuff and they're pretty big. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K__IR3J58zU&list=PLRQ_sm_IcXRaQYkyoGayW8nyMm-l-MHjy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K__IR3J58zU&list=PLRQ_sm_IcX... [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zc3h9iKYKDs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zc3h9iKYKDs (dated by now, but shows the direction) [3] https://www.thestar.com/business/technology/these-people-do-not-exist-inside-the-rapidly-growing-world-of-ai-generated-instagram-influencers/article_ca1d9762-943f-11ee-97a9-4bd0b9660726.html https://www.thestar.com/business/technology/these-people-do-... [4] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1IV7TBFTNl4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1IV7TBFTNl4 [5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hololive_Production https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hololive_Production
  - riversflow 3y ago
    I know of all that, hell I was listening to Plastic Beach when it came out. My point is that EDM and modern Pop coexist with older forms of music. I don't think new ways of creating art are zero-sum, they create new demand.
- saulpw 3y ago
  Taylor Swift is a personality, not a musical genius.
morelisp 3y ago
But we don't need more Taylor Swift music. We especially don't need more "I can't believe it's not Taylor Swift" music which is more realistically what the AIs will get you. If you could make (metaphorically) more Taylor Swifts that might be interesting. But it doesn't do that.