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Not many people, even experts, predicted the success of ChatGPT even five years ago - and most have moved their timeline for AGI up significantly because of its
by medvezhenok 3y ago
Not many people, even experts, predicted the success of ChatGPT even five years ago - and most have moved their timeline for AGI up significantly because of its release.
AI is a hard field to make predictions in.
- phatskat 3y agoDo you have sources on those predictions moving up “significantly” because of ChatGPT? Predicting words that sound good together, as a result of a prompt, based on a pre trained set of data is vastly different from AGI.
- medvezhenok 3y agoI can't find the exact article I read it in at the moment, but ChatGPT was definitely a turning point where a bunch of people reeled in their predictions by a decade. (The median expert prediction was between 2040-2060 previously, now quite a few people have moved that timeline to before 2035). https://medium.com/@paul.k.pallaghy/chatgpt-did-any-one-remotely-predict-the-full-capabilities-and-success-of-llms-956a52535a89 https://medium.com/@paul.k.pallaghy/chatgpt-did-any-one-remo... https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hQysqfSEzciRazx8k/forecasting-thread-ai-timelines https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hQysqfSEzciRazx8k/forecastin...
- TaylorAlexander 3y ago> AI is a hard field to make predictions in. Right but "hard to predict" does not mean "it will happen whenever I want it to happen". You can't look at a very hard problem, where a good sample of the world's experts say it will take more than 10 years to solve, and just say "I bet we can do it in 4 years" just because you want that to be true.