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> he fairly consistently overpromises and underdelivers. Can we please just call it what it really is? Lying. He's a pathological liar.

chiefalchemist 3y ago
How many startups start by telling investors, employees and customers, "We're going to fail"? They know the odds are that's going to happen. Are they pathological liars? No one can predict the future. Musk is what plenty of entrepreneurs are...over-confident. That's part of the profile. That doesn't make him or any of them liars.
- uxp100 3y ago
  I think plenty of entrepreneurs emphasize that they are scrappy underdogs, that it’s a long shot, and that it’s going to take hard work. That’s you know, the optimistic side of the truth that they’re going to fail. I’m sure Musk has said things like this. He’s also just lied about stuff. He’s remarkably careless about what he says/tweets for a CEO. Might have something to do with his drug use, who knows.
  - chiefalchemist 3y ago
    Careless? Oh yeah. A bit of filtering would improve the public's perception of him. But when you've gotten to where you are because of who you've always been *and* it's worked out well, very well, there's simply no incentive to change. At some point it's simply unreasonable for anyone to expect it to happen.
- Wytwwww 3y ago
  There is a huge amount of space between saying that "We're going to fail" and promising something will be done in "6 months". > Musk is what plenty of entrepreneurs are...over-confident The real world describing this is delusional. Which I don't think he is (or was at that point anyway).
  - chiefalchemist 3y ago
    I'm not seeing that space. In fact, given what we know about startups, "in 6 months" has better odds of happening than pitching and ignoring the high risk (i.e., failure is inevitable). I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, simply asking you to show me the space you speak of.
    - Wytwwww 3y ago
      > I'm not seeing that space. Really? You don't see anything between "we're certain to fail" and "were going to accomplish this thing (even though we haven't got the slightest clue how) in X months"? Would you feel differently about it if Musk said they'll do it in 3 weeks? Because I don't, besides "6 months" being slightly easier to believe.
aksss 3y ago
No, engineers and software developers tend to be overly optimistic about the ability and speed to do things, and it’s integral to the task of building cool shit. It’s simply not lying. It may look that way to those on the outside, and you can say it’s irresponsible not to recalibrate, but even the adjusted estimates are optimistically recalibrated. The estimating well is poisoned by vision. Lying is something very different.
- Powdering7082 3y ago
  1) It's not just engineers and software developers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy#Empirical_evidence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy#Empirical_evi... 2) Musk is particularly bad about it & does it in places that directly financially benefit him. Telling people that if they fork out 15k now they'll have full self driving in X timeline, completely missing it and then doing the exact same thing for years on end seems less like the planning fallacy and more like fraud, but I guess we can just wait to see what the courts decide on the matter
- Wytwwww 3y ago
  > No, engineers and software developers tend to be overly optimistic about the ability and speed to do He's not one though. He's a business executive, so someone who in theory who would have the job to reconcile those lofty dreams with reality. However, I'd bet quite a bit that the actual engineers and software developers were that optimistic and certainly didn't believe they could achieve FSD in 6 months (they'd be horrible incompetent engineers if they actually believed that).

chiefalchemist 3y ago

How many startups start by telling investors, employees and customers, "We're going to fail"? They know the odds are that's going to happen. Are they pathological liars? No one can predict the future. Musk is what plenty of entrepreneurs are...over-confident. That's part of the profile. That doesn't make him or any of them liars.

uxp100 3y ago
I think plenty of entrepreneurs emphasize that they are scrappy underdogs, that it’s a long shot, and that it’s going to take hard work. That’s you know, the optimistic side of the truth that they’re going to fail. I’m sure Musk has said things like this. He’s also just lied about stuff. He’s remarkably careless about what he says/tweets for a CEO. Might have something to do with his drug use, who knows.
- chiefalchemist 3y ago
  Careless? Oh yeah. A bit of filtering would improve the public's perception of him. But when you've gotten to where you are because of who you've always been *and* it's worked out well, very well, there's simply no incentive to change. At some point it's simply unreasonable for anyone to expect it to happen.
Wytwwww 3y ago
There is a huge amount of space between saying that "We're going to fail" and promising something will be done in "6 months". > Musk is what plenty of entrepreneurs are...over-confident The real world describing this is delusional. Which I don't think he is (or was at that point anyway).
- chiefalchemist 3y ago
  I'm not seeing that space. In fact, given what we know about startups, "in 6 months" has better odds of happening than pitching and ignoring the high risk (i.e., failure is inevitable). I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, simply asking you to show me the space you speak of.
  - Wytwwww 3y ago
    > I'm not seeing that space. Really? You don't see anything between "we're certain to fail" and "were going to accomplish this thing (even though we haven't got the slightest clue how) in X months"? Would you feel differently about it if Musk said they'll do it in 3 weeks? Because I don't, besides "6 months" being slightly easier to believe.

aksss 3y ago

No, engineers and software developers tend to be overly optimistic about the ability and speed to do things, and it’s integral to the task of building cool shit. It’s simply not lying. It may look that way to those on the outside, and you can say it’s irresponsible not to recalibrate, but even the adjusted estimates are optimistically recalibrated. The estimating well is poisoned by vision. Lying is something very different.

Powdering7082 3y ago
1) It's not just engineers and software developers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy#Empirical_evidence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy#Empirical_evi... 2) Musk is particularly bad about it & does it in places that directly financially benefit him. Telling people that if they fork out 15k now they'll have full self driving in X timeline, completely missing it and then doing the exact same thing for years on end seems less like the planning fallacy and more like fraud, but I guess we can just wait to see what the courts decide on the matter
Wytwwww 3y ago
> No, engineers and software developers tend to be overly optimistic about the ability and speed to do He's not one though. He's a business executive, so someone who in theory who would have the job to reconcile those lofty dreams with reality. However, I'd bet quite a bit that the actual engineers and software developers were that optimistic and certainly didn't believe they could achieve FSD in 6 months (they'd be horrible incompetent engineers if they actually believed that).