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Yeah there's a pretty common routine of SpaceX & Tesla having some of the best results in the world for what they are trying to accomplish AND being much worse

Yeah there's a pretty common routine of SpaceX & Tesla having some of the best results in the world for what they are trying to accomplish AND being much worse than what was promised.

kelnos 3y ago
And that's one of the (many) frustrating things with Musk: he fairly consistently overpromises and underdelivers. Even if that underdelivering is better than what you can get elsewhere, it still leaves a bad taste in people's mouths.
- daddylongstroke 3y ago
  I don't know who these ungrateful people are with the bad taste in their mouths? Starlink is the only game in town for me at this point for broadband: my only other option is DSL from Centurylink at 3Mb/.5Mb - they've had 30 years to improve service here and hundreds of millions in taxpayer subsidies, and they haven't done it. The nearest T-Mobile signal is about 7 miles away. I for one, am grateful.
- KennyBlanken 3y ago
  > he fairly consistently overpromises and underdelivers. Can we please just call it what it really is? Lying. He's a pathological liar.
  - chiefalchemist 3y ago
    How many startups start by telling investors, employees and customers, "We're going to fail"? They know the odds are that's going to happen. Are they pathological liars? No one can predict the future. Musk is what plenty of entrepreneurs are...over-confident. That's part of the profile. That doesn't make him or any of them liars.
    - uxp100 3y ago
      I think plenty of entrepreneurs emphasize that they are scrappy underdogs, that it’s a long shot, and that it’s going to take hard work. That’s you know, the optimistic side of the truth that they’re going to fail. I’m sure Musk has said things like this. He’s also just lied about stuff. He’s remarkably careless about what he says/tweets for a CEO. Might have something to do with his drug use, who knows.
      - chiefalchemist 3y ago
        Careless? Oh yeah. A bit of filtering would improve the public's perception of him. But when you've gotten to where you are because of who you've always been *and* it's worked out well, very well, there's simply no incentive to change. At some point it's simply unreasonable for anyone to expect it to happen.
    - Wytwwww 3y ago
      There is a huge amount of space between saying that "We're going to fail" and promising something will be done in "6 months". > Musk is what plenty of entrepreneurs are...over-confident The real world describing this is delusional. Which I don't think he is (or was at that point anyway).
      - chiefalchemist 3y ago
        I'm not seeing that space. In fact, given what we know about startups, "in 6 months" has better odds of happening than pitching and ignoring the high risk (i.e., failure is inevitable). I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, simply asking you to show me the space you speak of.
        Wytwwww 3y ago
        > I'm not seeing that space. Really? You don't see anything between "we're certain to fail" and "were going to accomplish this thing (even though we haven't got the slightest clue how) in X months"? Would you feel differently about it if Musk said they'll do it in 3 weeks? Because I don't, besides "6 months" being slightly easier to believe.
  - aksss 3y ago
    No, engineers and software developers tend to be overly optimistic about the ability and speed to do things, and it’s integral to the task of building cool shit. It’s simply not lying. It may look that way to those on the outside, and you can say it’s irresponsible not to recalibrate, but even the adjusted estimates are optimistically recalibrated. The estimating well is poisoned by vision. Lying is something very different.
    - Powdering7082 3y ago
      1) It's not just engineers and software developers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy#Empirical_evidence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy#Empirical_evi... 2) Musk is particularly bad about it & does it in places that directly financially benefit him. Telling people that if they fork out 15k now they'll have full self driving in X timeline, completely missing it and then doing the exact same thing for years on end seems less like the planning fallacy and more like fraud, but I guess we can just wait to see what the courts decide on the matter
    - Wytwwww 3y ago
      > No, engineers and software developers tend to be overly optimistic about the ability and speed to do He's not one though. He's a business executive, so someone who in theory who would have the job to reconcile those lofty dreams with reality. However, I'd bet quite a bit that the actual engineers and software developers were that optimistic and certainly didn't believe they could achieve FSD in 6 months (they'd be horrible incompetent engineers if they actually believed that).
- MetaWhirledPeas 3y ago
  > it still leaves a bad taste in people's mouths It definitely does, although I don't understand why. One thing making bold forecasts does is motivate your people. JFK told us we'd get to the moon this decade which is absolutely nuts. Would we have got there as soon if he had said we'd get to the moon eventually? To the other responder: JFK also had no tangible justification to say we'd get there so soon, and the most likely outcome was that he was going to be wrong. Does that make him a pathological liar?
  - dmix 3y ago
    It's pretty obvious why it's such a big deal recently.
  - JohnFen 3y ago
    > It definitely does, although I don't understand why. Maybe because it's a kind of lying, and people who do it on a regular basis are untrustworthy people? > JFK told us we'd get to the moon this decade which is absolutely nuts. Remember that he didn't phrase it as "we will do this", he phrased it as "this is our goal". He referred to it as a goal we're choosing, not as an inevitability. Musk isn't goal-setting, he's making promises. The difference between the two is critical. One is being a leader, the other is being a liar.
    - omgwtfbyobbq 3y ago
      If that's lying, then the c-suite of every large auto manufacturer does it on a fairly regular basis. In general, they don't seem to get as much negative attention in the media, and I'm guessing that's because they pay a fair bit for advertising.
      - callalex 3y ago
        I’m not familiar with this, what are you referring to?
        omgwtfbyobbq 3y ago
- SteveGerencser 3y ago
  Perhaps, but he does deliver. As a rural internet customer who has been told for a decade now that "fiber is coming to our area" by the local telco, I am more than happy to give Musk the benefit of the doubt as one of the cleanest players in a filthy industry full of lies and graft.
- stickfigure 3y ago
  For the record, I am ecstatic with my Starlink service, no bad taste whatsoever. I upgraded from a rural wireless broadband service that gave me peaks of 10Mbit, for pretty nearly the same price.
qwytw 3y ago
However if Starlink can't compete with mobile broadband in medium (and sometimes even lower than that) density areas they don't really have much of a market. While there are certainly quite a few people in the developed world living in remote areas who don't have any better options for > 50/5 Mbps besides Starlink are there really enough of them to justify such a massive investment?

Yeah there's a pretty common routine of SpaceX & Tesla having some of the best results in the world for what they are trying to accomplish AND being much worse than what was promised.

kelnos 3y ago

And that's one of the (many) frustrating things with Musk: he fairly consistently overpromises and underdelivers. Even if that underdelivering is better than what you can get elsewhere, it still leaves a bad taste in people's mouths.

daddylongstroke 3y ago
I don't know who these ungrateful people are with the bad taste in their mouths? Starlink is the only game in town for me at this point for broadband: my only other option is DSL from Centurylink at 3Mb/.5Mb - they've had 30 years to improve service here and hundreds of millions in taxpayer subsidies, and they haven't done it. The nearest T-Mobile signal is about 7 miles away. I for one, am grateful.
KennyBlanken 3y ago
> he fairly consistently overpromises and underdelivers. Can we please just call it what it really is? Lying. He's a pathological liar.
- chiefalchemist 3y ago
  How many startups start by telling investors, employees and customers, "We're going to fail"? They know the odds are that's going to happen. Are they pathological liars? No one can predict the future. Musk is what plenty of entrepreneurs are...over-confident. That's part of the profile. That doesn't make him or any of them liars.
  - uxp100 3y ago
    I think plenty of entrepreneurs emphasize that they are scrappy underdogs, that it’s a long shot, and that it’s going to take hard work. That’s you know, the optimistic side of the truth that they’re going to fail. I’m sure Musk has said things like this. He’s also just lied about stuff. He’s remarkably careless about what he says/tweets for a CEO. Might have something to do with his drug use, who knows.
    - chiefalchemist 3y ago
      Careless? Oh yeah. A bit of filtering would improve the public's perception of him. But when you've gotten to where you are because of who you've always been *and* it's worked out well, very well, there's simply no incentive to change. At some point it's simply unreasonable for anyone to expect it to happen.
  - Wytwwww 3y ago
    There is a huge amount of space between saying that "We're going to fail" and promising something will be done in "6 months". > Musk is what plenty of entrepreneurs are...over-confident The real world describing this is delusional. Which I don't think he is (or was at that point anyway).
    - chiefalchemist 3y ago
      I'm not seeing that space. In fact, given what we know about startups, "in 6 months" has better odds of happening than pitching and ignoring the high risk (i.e., failure is inevitable). I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, simply asking you to show me the space you speak of.
      - Wytwwww 3y ago
        > I'm not seeing that space. Really? You don't see anything between "we're certain to fail" and "were going to accomplish this thing (even though we haven't got the slightest clue how) in X months"? Would you feel differently about it if Musk said they'll do it in 3 weeks? Because I don't, besides "6 months" being slightly easier to believe.
- aksss 3y ago
  No, engineers and software developers tend to be overly optimistic about the ability and speed to do things, and it’s integral to the task of building cool shit. It’s simply not lying. It may look that way to those on the outside, and you can say it’s irresponsible not to recalibrate, but even the adjusted estimates are optimistically recalibrated. The estimating well is poisoned by vision. Lying is something very different.
  - Powdering7082 3y ago
    1) It's not just engineers and software developers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy#Empirical_evidence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy#Empirical_evi... 2) Musk is particularly bad about it & does it in places that directly financially benefit him. Telling people that if they fork out 15k now they'll have full self driving in X timeline, completely missing it and then doing the exact same thing for years on end seems less like the planning fallacy and more like fraud, but I guess we can just wait to see what the courts decide on the matter
  - Wytwwww 3y ago
    > No, engineers and software developers tend to be overly optimistic about the ability and speed to do He's not one though. He's a business executive, so someone who in theory who would have the job to reconcile those lofty dreams with reality. However, I'd bet quite a bit that the actual engineers and software developers were that optimistic and certainly didn't believe they could achieve FSD in 6 months (they'd be horrible incompetent engineers if they actually believed that).
MetaWhirledPeas 3y ago
> it still leaves a bad taste in people's mouths It definitely does, although I don't understand why. One thing making bold forecasts does is motivate your people. JFK told us we'd get to the moon this decade which is absolutely nuts. Would we have got there as soon if he had said we'd get to the moon eventually? To the other responder: JFK also had no tangible justification to say we'd get there so soon, and the most likely outcome was that he was going to be wrong. Does that make him a pathological liar?
- dmix 3y ago
  It's pretty obvious why it's such a big deal recently.
- JohnFen 3y ago
  > It definitely does, although I don't understand why. Maybe because it's a kind of lying, and people who do it on a regular basis are untrustworthy people? > JFK told us we'd get to the moon this decade which is absolutely nuts. Remember that he didn't phrase it as "we will do this", he phrased it as "this is our goal". He referred to it as a goal we're choosing, not as an inevitability. Musk isn't goal-setting, he's making promises. The difference between the two is critical. One is being a leader, the other is being a liar.
  - omgwtfbyobbq 3y ago
    If that's lying, then the c-suite of every large auto manufacturer does it on a fairly regular basis. In general, they don't seem to get as much negative attention in the media, and I'm guessing that's because they pay a fair bit for advertising.
    - callalex 3y ago
      I’m not familiar with this, what are you referring to?
      - omgwtfbyobbq 3y ago
SteveGerencser 3y ago
Perhaps, but he does deliver. As a rural internet customer who has been told for a decade now that "fiber is coming to our area" by the local telco, I am more than happy to give Musk the benefit of the doubt as one of the cleanest players in a filthy industry full of lies and graft.
stickfigure 3y ago
For the record, I am ecstatic with my Starlink service, no bad taste whatsoever. I upgraded from a rural wireless broadband service that gave me peaks of 10Mbit, for pretty nearly the same price.

qwytw 3y ago

However if Starlink can't compete with mobile broadband in medium (and sometimes even lower than that) density areas they don't really have much of a market. While there are certainly quite a few people in the developed world living in remote areas who don't have any better options for > 50/5 Mbps besides Starlink are there really enough of them to justify such a massive investment?