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IMHO, what I see from the latest CPI report is inflation becoming persistent and it looks like shelter prices are the reason. So I don't think rates will be cut
by sakopov 3y ago
IMHO, what I see from the latest CPI report is inflation becoming persistent and it looks like shelter prices are the reason. So I don't think rates will be cut in the near short-term and will likely remain unchanged. The good news is that apartment construction [1] and vacancies [2] are trending up, so this could give way to lower rents and CPI coming down to what the FED is expecting but I don't think this is happening in March but rather much later next year. So, I think we'll have more pain and layoffs in the tech market for the majority of next year...
[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNDCON5MUSA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNDCON5MUSA
[2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRVRUSQ156N https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRVRUSQ156N
- ldjkfkdsjnv 3y agothe stock market is clearly pricing in inflation dropping, your current analysis doesnt take into account any data that hedge funds and investors are trading on
- HDThoreaun 3y agoInflation is sitting at 3.1%, it's already come down. You are right that housing inflation is still a big problem, but the overall number is in the acceptable range today. Powell just signaled 3 cuts next year being the current plan. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/12/13/business/fed-meeting-interest-rates https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/12/13/business/fed-meeting...