4 ms·

From one of the dissenting opinions: > the majority points to delays in the development of SpaceX’s Starship launch platform—the largest, most powerful rocket

From one of the dissenting opinions: > the majority points to delays in the development of SpaceX’s Starship launch platform—the largest, most powerful rocket ever built—as evidence that SpaceX would be unable to launch enough Starlink satellites to meet its 2025 commitments. The trouble with this argument is that SpaceX never indicated that it was relying on the Starship platform to meet its RDOF obligations, and in fact it repeatedly stated that it was not. I think the metric was 'more likely than not achieve the metric by 2025' and the decision was made in 2022.

toss1 3y ago
Sure. Neither you nor I were in the room, and the evidence is that the committee that was in the room evaluated those plans and it seemed more unlikely to meet the goals. Given Musk's track record, it is very reasonable to treat any timeline with a shipload of salt. He literally took $thousands from thousands of customers for Full-Self-Driving upgrades that were to transform their Teslas into self-driving Uber/Lyft goldmines by 2021, not 2022, not 2023, no... oops, recall 2 million yesterday because of safety failures in "autopilot" that isn't. Even with the assumption that Starship is not part of the equation, Starlink still is falling down on bandwidth reliability as subscription exceeds capacity.
- chrisco255 3y ago
  Space X is launching Falcon 9 rockets multiple times per week with additional capacity for Starlink on the regular. Space X is not Elon Musk. It's a company with its own staff, with its own track record, so let's set aside any emotional arguments about FSD from Tesla, which is completely unrelated and which itself is an extremely difficult problem to solve. The "recall" from Tesla, again a completely unrelated issue to SpaceX and the Starlink internet service, was simply a required software patch. Millions of vehicles get recalled all the time from all car manufacturers: "Ford is recalling 870,701 of the bestselling pickups from 2021 through 2023" "About a quarter of a million 2016–2019 models are under recall for a connecting rod defect that can cause the engine to stall or not start, including the Pilot, Odyssey, Ridgeline, and Acura TLX and MDX." "2013–2018 Toyota RAV4s Recalled Due to a Potential Fire Risk The increased fire risk stems from loose-fitting 12-volt batteries, with the recall affecting nearly 1.9 million RAV4s." The Starlink service is popular, because it generally works, and it's better than what a lot of people even have available to them in many parts of the country or in specific situations (like fulltime RVers).
  - hnburnsy 3y ago
    "Hyundai and Kia are recalling more than 3 million vehicles and advising owners to park them outside due to risk of fire in the engine compartments." https://www.npr.org/2023/09/27/1202075844/kia-hyundai-recall-fire https://www.npr.org/2023/09/27/1202075844/kia-hyundai-recall...
  - toss1 3y ago
    >> The Starlink service is popular, because it generally works, and it's better than what a lot of people even have available to them in many parts of the country or in specific situations (like fulltime RVers). Right. And the issue is the ratio of popularity to supply. A neighbor near a family cabin in rural Maine, where the service is only copper ~10mbps down/1 up and more expensive that FIOS at home just installed two Starlinks. They're generally satisfied, but the first thing they mentioned is occasional slow speeds. The officials in charge of the contract must ensure that the required service level will be met. Granting nearly a Billion dollars to provide a level of service, and then having them say "sorry, it's too popular and everyone is slow" will not cut it. Everyone (I hope including you) would be screaming about wasting taxpayer dollars on a service that did not provide the service. I'm sure one fix for Starlink would be to offer a prioritized service level for all of the rural broadband customers. Yes, this could mean that RVers might just wind up with no service at some times and locales, but if Starlink really wants that contract, perhaps they should offer that assurance.
    - inemesitaffia 3y ago
      They can offer an RDOF specific plan. Think internet essentials from Comcast.
- oittaa 3y ago
  How do I block/mute these trolls on this website? I tried searching the FAQ but didn't see anything.

toss1 3y ago

Sure. Neither you nor I were in the room, and the evidence is that the committee that was in the room evaluated those plans and it seemed more unlikely to meet the goals. Given Musk's track record, it is very reasonable to treat any timeline with a shipload of salt. He literally took $thousands from thousands of customers for Full-Self-Driving upgrades that were to transform their Teslas into self-driving Uber/Lyft goldmines by 2021, not 2022, not 2023, no... oops, recall 2 million yesterday because of safety failures in "autopilot" that isn't. Even with the assumption that Starship is not part of the equation, Starlink still is falling down on bandwidth reliability as subscription exceeds capacity.

chrisco255 3y ago
Space X is launching Falcon 9 rockets multiple times per week with additional capacity for Starlink on the regular. Space X is not Elon Musk. It's a company with its own staff, with its own track record, so let's set aside any emotional arguments about FSD from Tesla, which is completely unrelated and which itself is an extremely difficult problem to solve. The "recall" from Tesla, again a completely unrelated issue to SpaceX and the Starlink internet service, was simply a required software patch. Millions of vehicles get recalled all the time from all car manufacturers: "Ford is recalling 870,701 of the bestselling pickups from 2021 through 2023" "About a quarter of a million 2016–2019 models are under recall for a connecting rod defect that can cause the engine to stall or not start, including the Pilot, Odyssey, Ridgeline, and Acura TLX and MDX." "2013–2018 Toyota RAV4s Recalled Due to a Potential Fire Risk The increased fire risk stems from loose-fitting 12-volt batteries, with the recall affecting nearly 1.9 million RAV4s." The Starlink service is popular, because it generally works, and it's better than what a lot of people even have available to them in many parts of the country or in specific situations (like fulltime RVers).
- hnburnsy 3y ago
  "Hyundai and Kia are recalling more than 3 million vehicles and advising owners to park them outside due to risk of fire in the engine compartments." https://www.npr.org/2023/09/27/1202075844/kia-hyundai-recall-fire https://www.npr.org/2023/09/27/1202075844/kia-hyundai-recall...
- toss1 3y ago
  >> The Starlink service is popular, because it generally works, and it's better than what a lot of people even have available to them in many parts of the country or in specific situations (like fulltime RVers). Right. And the issue is the ratio of popularity to supply. A neighbor near a family cabin in rural Maine, where the service is only copper ~10mbps down/1 up and more expensive that FIOS at home just installed two Starlinks. They're generally satisfied, but the first thing they mentioned is occasional slow speeds. The officials in charge of the contract must ensure that the required service level will be met. Granting nearly a Billion dollars to provide a level of service, and then having them say "sorry, it's too popular and everyone is slow" will not cut it. Everyone (I hope including you) would be screaming about wasting taxpayer dollars on a service that did not provide the service. I'm sure one fix for Starlink would be to offer a prioritized service level for all of the rural broadband customers. Yes, this could mean that RVers might just wind up with no service at some times and locales, but if Starlink really wants that contract, perhaps they should offer that assurance.
  - inemesitaffia 3y ago
    They can offer an RDOF specific plan. Think internet essentials from Comcast.
oittaa 3y ago
How do I block/mute these trolls on this website? I tried searching the FAQ but didn't see anything.