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This only makes sense in a repeatable game or across the industry, not for any individual experiment. Would you take a 11% chance of a billion dollars vs death

This only makes sense in a repeatable game or across the industry, not for any individual experiment. Would you take a 11% chance of a billion dollars vs death?

adql 3y ago
But you're losing investors money not your own
- rightbyte 3y ago
  At that point you already succeeded with your business. In the really risky phase it is all credit card, that you need to recoup.
  - sokoloff 3y ago
    The worst case of maxing out a personal credit card is not generally comparable to individual death. Loads of people with way less earning power than SWEs have that amount of debt. It's a pain in the ass, but it's not terminal. (It's also dischargeable in bankruptcy in the worst 0.1% case.)
    - rightbyte 3y ago
      Sure but I read it as most of us only get one chance at starting our own business (unless you already are rich). E.g. I would rather go for 50% chance of 1 million USD than 11% chance of 1 billion USD.
      - sokoloff 3y ago
        (I’m coming at this as someone who’d way rather an 11% chance at a billion than a 50/50 at a million, which I’m sure colors my thought process.) The amount of personal investment it takes to get to the point of pitching investors is pretty low (and well lower than “already succeeded at your business” IMO; raising money is not in itself business success). It was ridiculously low a few years ago; it’s still low and achievable as an investment for most anyone earning a western SWE salary and not living extravagantly.
rightbyte 3y ago
That is essentially the VC advantage over business founders. They have a cat worth of lives.
bryanrasmussen 3y ago
so it's 11% chance of a billion dollars or death, or it's 11% chance billion dollars 89% chance death?
andrewmutz 3y ago
> This only makes sense in a repeatable game or across the industry, not for any individual experiment. No, because in a large corporation there are a large number of investment projects going on. So a corporation can still treat these as "bets" and invest in those with maximal expected IRR

This only makes sense in a repeatable game or across the industry, not for any individual experiment. Would you take a 11% chance of a billion dollars vs death?

adql 3y ago

But you're losing investors money not your own

rightbyte 3y ago
At that point you already succeeded with your business. In the really risky phase it is all credit card, that you need to recoup.
- sokoloff 3y ago
  The worst case of maxing out a personal credit card is not generally comparable to individual death. Loads of people with way less earning power than SWEs have that amount of debt. It's a pain in the ass, but it's not terminal. (It's also dischargeable in bankruptcy in the worst 0.1% case.)
  - rightbyte 3y ago
    Sure but I read it as most of us only get one chance at starting our own business (unless you already are rich). E.g. I would rather go for 50% chance of 1 million USD than 11% chance of 1 billion USD.
    - sokoloff 3y ago
      (I’m coming at this as someone who’d way rather an 11% chance at a billion than a 50/50 at a million, which I’m sure colors my thought process.) The amount of personal investment it takes to get to the point of pitching investors is pretty low (and well lower than “already succeeded at your business” IMO; raising money is not in itself business success). It was ridiculously low a few years ago; it’s still low and achievable as an investment for most anyone earning a western SWE salary and not living extravagantly.

rightbyte 3y ago

That is essentially the VC advantage over business founders. They have a cat worth of lives.

bryanrasmussen 3y ago

so it's 11% chance of a billion dollars or death, or it's 11% chance billion dollars 89% chance death?

andrewmutz 3y ago

> This only makes sense in a repeatable game or across the industry, not for any individual experiment. No, because in a large corporation there are a large number of investment projects going on. So a corporation can still treat these as "bets" and invest in those with maximal expected IRR