11 ms·

So is driving. You're exceedingly unlikely to be in a mortal accident driving. Those rates plummet further if you don't drink.

CyberDildonics 3y ago
"A total of 42,939 people died in motor vehicle crashes in 2021. These deaths occurred in 39,508 crashes involving 61,332 motor vehicles. This was a 10 percent increase in deaths compared with 2020." https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/yearly-snapshot https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/yearl... When you say driving is also safe, it doesn't really seem like a reasonable comparison when 85,878 died in motor vehicle crashes for every 1 person that died from flying.
- hinkley 3y ago
  I think these need to be unpacked and the IIHS data is missing a couple metrics. Right now the FAA is bragging about serving 2.9 million passengers a day. I had no idea it was that high. That’s almost 1% of the population. The IIHS death rate works out in the neighborhood of 1 in 8-10k. But I think that’s per driver, not per trip. So we are stuck on the per trip bit again. Meanwhile 5 fatalities in 10 years (~3652 days) is less than 10.5 billion person trips (assuming passenger rates climb over time) which is around 1 in 2 billion. So unless we are living in a statistical fluke that’s about two orders of magnitude off.
  - thsksbd 3y ago
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_safety https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_safety It has a chart normalizing by trip. Someone posted this on HM a few days ago. Also, the statistical difficulties of this, and therefore large error, are significant. I see at least two: 1. 5 fatalities in ten years in the US neglects the 346 fatalities of passengers who died in two 737 Max flights before being recalled - flight deaths that, being 100% Boeing's fault, aren't on the US' tally by stat fluke (lookin at you Southwest). 2. actually its not luck that the hundreds of 737 dead didn't end up in the US' tally. Airline deaths are rare enough that there are not enough flights to sample the death rate properly.
- thsksbd 3y ago
  So you normalize car deaths by plane deaths and not by mile (plane wins) or journey (car wins). I appreciate your dedication to dimensionless numbers, but that's kinda weird. There are orders of magnitude more driving than flying by mile and number of journeys. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_safety https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_safety Scroll down to "transport comparison" and look at the journey normalization.

CyberDildonics 3y ago

"A total of 42,939 people died in motor vehicle crashes in 2021. These deaths occurred in 39,508 crashes involving 61,332 motor vehicles. This was a 10 percent increase in deaths compared with 2020." https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/yearly-snapshot https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/yearl... When you say driving is also safe, it doesn't really seem like a reasonable comparison when 85,878 died in motor vehicle crashes for every 1 person that died from flying.

hinkley 3y ago
I think these need to be unpacked and the IIHS data is missing a couple metrics. Right now the FAA is bragging about serving 2.9 million passengers a day. I had no idea it was that high. That’s almost 1% of the population. The IIHS death rate works out in the neighborhood of 1 in 8-10k. But I think that’s per driver, not per trip. So we are stuck on the per trip bit again. Meanwhile 5 fatalities in 10 years (~3652 days) is less than 10.5 billion person trips (assuming passenger rates climb over time) which is around 1 in 2 billion. So unless we are living in a statistical fluke that’s about two orders of magnitude off.
- thsksbd 3y ago
  https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_safety https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_safety It has a chart normalizing by trip. Someone posted this on HM a few days ago. Also, the statistical difficulties of this, and therefore large error, are significant. I see at least two: 1. 5 fatalities in ten years in the US neglects the 346 fatalities of passengers who died in two 737 Max flights before being recalled - flight deaths that, being 100% Boeing's fault, aren't on the US' tally by stat fluke (lookin at you Southwest). 2. actually its not luck that the hundreds of 737 dead didn't end up in the US' tally. Airline deaths are rare enough that there are not enough flights to sample the death rate properly.
thsksbd 3y ago
So you normalize car deaths by plane deaths and not by mile (plane wins) or journey (car wins). I appreciate your dedication to dimensionless numbers, but that's kinda weird. There are orders of magnitude more driving than flying by mile and number of journeys. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_safety https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_safety Scroll down to "transport comparison" and look at the journey normalization.