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Is there any reason to believe that a Palestinian state with full control of its borders would not immediately begin the process of accumulating weapons to repe

Is there any reason to believe that a Palestinian state with full control of its borders would not immediately begin the process of accumulating weapons to repeat Oct 7? Hamas has never affirmed Israel's right to exist.

tsimionescu 3y ago
Treaties and UN involvement could be arranged to help guarantee this. However, what is clear is that Israel's current approach is not working to ensure its security, and that in the last few decades it has only succeeded in turning the population of Palestine ever more bitter against them. So, unless they are prepared to wipe them out entirely, what possible hope is there in continuing in this direction? Say Hamas is successfully eliminated. Every single Hamas leader and soldier is killed or captured. Is there any reason whatsoever to imagine that people in Gaza could return to their bulldozed and bombed "homes" and feel friendly towards Israel? Or did this incursion all but guarantee that the next generation of Gazans will feel even more justified in defying Israel? And note, the same question is true of Hamas' monstrous attack - no doubt the vast majority of those hurt by the Hamas attack will feel justified in hating and fearing Gaza and Hamas. It's just harder to ask the ones being oppressed to just bear with it in the hope their oppressor might stop.
- neoromantique 3y ago
  >Treaties and UN involvement UN has assisted Hamas in the past, there is no reason to believe it would be any different this time. The history didn't start on October 7th, what has happened on October 7th is the violence went over the threshold in which Israel would believe intent of international community and instead is handling it themselves despite the uproar.
  - tsimionescu 3y ago
    The history before October 7th is generally that for every Israeli civilian killed by Palestinian terror attacks, there have been 2-5 Palestinians killed by Israeli soldiers or police, at least in the last 20 years or so. Even the monstrous Hamas attacks from October 7th don't reverse the death toll comparison (and that's before the invasion). So, if anything, a more accurate description is that October 7th was a boiling point where Palestine retaliated for decades of oppressive killings. But the reality is that neither is the right framing. The October 7th attacks on innocent civilians aren't justified or justifiable. The following invasion and widespread murder of innocent civilians aren't justified or justifiable. A ceasefire and peace deals must be imposed to keep the situation under control. All those who have caused the death of civilians, both in Hamas leadership and Israeli leadership, should face international justice, and new leaders should be installed that are committed to a lasting peace process.
    - shiroiuma 3y ago
      It sounds like you're advocating that some multi-national force take over the entire region and set up authoritarian governments, because with democracy, the people in both these places are going to choose violence.
      - tsimionescu 3y ago
        It is not authoritarian to take aggressive war off the table. In a modern constitutional democracy, the people can only express their will in the bounds of the law. Killing Israeli or Palestinian civilians is obviously illegal under any constitution imaginable (including the current constitutions of Israel and Palestine). So, a fully democratic government who represents the will of its people could nevertheless be bound not to attack it's neighbor. Also, I'm not seriously advocating for this. It's a fantasy that has no chance whatsoever of happening. But it is probably the only sort of thing that could bring a quick end to this conflict given the current parties in power.
        shiroiuma 3y ago
        I don't follow at all. Killing civilians in a war is not illegal under any constitution I'm aware of; only killing your own citizens is, generally. Israel already has a fully democratic government, so I'm not sure what you're proposing to do here. And while Gaza is obviously not democratic, if someone did set up a fully democratic government there, and the people voted for Hamas as their leaders again with their stated aim of attacking Israel, then nothing changes. Maybe I'm missing something in your proposal idea, but history shows that people in democratic societies can and will vote for warmongering leaders. Your original comment said that leaders committed to peace should "be installed". That doesn't sound democratic in the least. And here you say that "it is not authoritarian to take aggressive war off the table". When you're talking about outside forces forcibly taking over these places governments and "installing" new leaders, that's the definition of authoritarianism. Israel's leaders were already democratically elected, and obviously they're not peaceniks, and if Netanyahu suddenly died of a stroke, I think it's naive to think the Israelis would now vote for peaceniks. And I think it's very unlikely that Gazans, given a new vote, would choose peaceful leaders either, though I could be wrong of course.
- RcouF1uZ4gsC 3y ago
  > Treaties and UN involvement could be arranged to help guarantee this. I don’t think that the UN is trustworthy in this manner. It seems like the UN is like Lord Farquad in Shrek: “This ceasefire with Hamas may cost thousands of Israeli lives, but that is a risk the UN is willing to take for the sake of peace.”

tsimionescu 3y ago

Treaties and UN involvement could be arranged to help guarantee this. However, what is clear is that Israel's current approach is not working to ensure its security, and that in the last few decades it has only succeeded in turning the population of Palestine ever more bitter against them. So, unless they are prepared to wipe them out entirely, what possible hope is there in continuing in this direction? Say Hamas is successfully eliminated. Every single Hamas leader and soldier is killed or captured. Is there any reason whatsoever to imagine that people in Gaza could return to their bulldozed and bombed "homes" and feel friendly towards Israel? Or did this incursion all but guarantee that the next generation of Gazans will feel even more justified in defying Israel? And note, the same question is true of Hamas' monstrous attack - no doubt the vast majority of those hurt by the Hamas attack will feel justified in hating and fearing Gaza and Hamas. It's just harder to ask the ones being oppressed to just bear with it in the hope their oppressor might stop.

neoromantique 3y ago
>Treaties and UN involvement UN has assisted Hamas in the past, there is no reason to believe it would be any different this time. The history didn't start on October 7th, what has happened on October 7th is the violence went over the threshold in which Israel would believe intent of international community and instead is handling it themselves despite the uproar.
- tsimionescu 3y ago
  The history before October 7th is generally that for every Israeli civilian killed by Palestinian terror attacks, there have been 2-5 Palestinians killed by Israeli soldiers or police, at least in the last 20 years or so. Even the monstrous Hamas attacks from October 7th don't reverse the death toll comparison (and that's before the invasion). So, if anything, a more accurate description is that October 7th was a boiling point where Palestine retaliated for decades of oppressive killings. But the reality is that neither is the right framing. The October 7th attacks on innocent civilians aren't justified or justifiable. The following invasion and widespread murder of innocent civilians aren't justified or justifiable. A ceasefire and peace deals must be imposed to keep the situation under control. All those who have caused the death of civilians, both in Hamas leadership and Israeli leadership, should face international justice, and new leaders should be installed that are committed to a lasting peace process.
  - shiroiuma 3y ago
    It sounds like you're advocating that some multi-national force take over the entire region and set up authoritarian governments, because with democracy, the people in both these places are going to choose violence.
    - tsimionescu 3y ago
      It is not authoritarian to take aggressive war off the table. In a modern constitutional democracy, the people can only express their will in the bounds of the law. Killing Israeli or Palestinian civilians is obviously illegal under any constitution imaginable (including the current constitutions of Israel and Palestine). So, a fully democratic government who represents the will of its people could nevertheless be bound not to attack it's neighbor. Also, I'm not seriously advocating for this. It's a fantasy that has no chance whatsoever of happening. But it is probably the only sort of thing that could bring a quick end to this conflict given the current parties in power.
      - shiroiuma 3y ago
        I don't follow at all. Killing civilians in a war is not illegal under any constitution I'm aware of; only killing your own citizens is, generally. Israel already has a fully democratic government, so I'm not sure what you're proposing to do here. And while Gaza is obviously not democratic, if someone did set up a fully democratic government there, and the people voted for Hamas as their leaders again with their stated aim of attacking Israel, then nothing changes. Maybe I'm missing something in your proposal idea, but history shows that people in democratic societies can and will vote for warmongering leaders. Your original comment said that leaders committed to peace should "be installed". That doesn't sound democratic in the least. And here you say that "it is not authoritarian to take aggressive war off the table". When you're talking about outside forces forcibly taking over these places governments and "installing" new leaders, that's the definition of authoritarianism. Israel's leaders were already democratically elected, and obviously they're not peaceniks, and if Netanyahu suddenly died of a stroke, I think it's naive to think the Israelis would now vote for peaceniks. And I think it's very unlikely that Gazans, given a new vote, would choose peaceful leaders either, though I could be wrong of course.
RcouF1uZ4gsC 3y ago
> Treaties and UN involvement could be arranged to help guarantee this. I don’t think that the UN is trustworthy in this manner. It seems like the UN is like Lord Farquad in Shrek: “This ceasefire with Hamas may cost thousands of Israeli lives, but that is a risk the UN is willing to take for the sake of peace.”