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>>Each civilian killed by mistake has family, friends, and neighbors who might be inclined to avenge them and it’s hard for me to see how this doesn’t end up gi

by ejb999 3y ago

>>Each civilian killed by mistake has family, friends, and neighbors who might be inclined to avenge them and it’s hard for me to see how this doesn’t end up giving Hamas more recruits than they’re losing. Both Japan and Germany have been pretty well behaved since the Allies ground them to the dust during WW2 - why do you think it couldn't work here?

acdha 3y ago
I’m not saying it’s impossible but that it’s a numbers game: if you have a messy battle with Hamas and kill a dozen people who were in the wrong place at the wrong time, that’s a dozen lotto tickets for the n% chance that one of the people who knew them succumbs to the propaganda saying the answer is to join Hamas and strike back. Angry people make rash decisions, especially if they think they don’t have choices. I would highly recommend reading the FP article I linked. The author has researched this for years and one of the things which has made this so depressing for me is more cogently discussed in their work about what causes people to resort to violence. Japan and Germany had their share of angry losers, but they also had productive opportunities for most people – the U.S. wasn’t taking their land for American settlers and crowding them onto reservations. If you’re a Palestinian teenager aware of the outside world but resigned to a life of subsistence farming or living on foreign aid, and then someone destroys your family’s farm and says that the land they stole is theirs now, violence is going to look more reasonable because pretty much everything else has been removed. That’s completely unlike WWII, or even Vietnam, and I don’t think we’ll see anything good come from it. Now, imagine some fantasy where Israel leaves occupied Palestine to a UN peacekeeping mission or, say, the United States gives a big chunk of BLM land to anyone who wants to emigrate (not saying this is politically possible, just for the sake of argument). You’re that same Palestinian teenager who’s been shat on your entire life but now you have the option of likely being killed fighting on behalf of people you couldn’t vote for and clearly don’t care about you … or you could do literally anything else with your life and have a much better chance of living to age 30. Having options is hugely transformative and I think any path out of this has to involve finding one.
- shiroiuma 3y ago
  >or, say, the United States gives a big chunk of BLM land to anyone who wants to emigrate For people who don't know, especially non-Americans, "BLM land" refers to unoccupied rural, wild land mainly in the western US states that's owned and managed by the federal government's Bureau of Land Management. It has nothing to do with the Black Lives Matter movement.
  - acdha 3y ago
    Hah, yes, I should have clarified since that is way more confusing now than it used to be.
biorach 3y ago
> Japan and Germany have been pretty well behaved since the Allies ground them to the dust during WW2 - why do you think it couldn't work here? The grinding into dust was a small part of the reason for the successful outcome The main victor in WWII poured vast resources into rebuilding the economies of Germany and Japan, ensured their viability as nation states, fostered democracy and encouraged the creation of an environment fostering equality, cooperation and growth. This all ensured residual bitterness was overcome relatively quickly. Israel so far has done very much the opposite to the Palestinians. The prospects for long term peace look grim without a more magnanimous victor. The West Bank is every year more decimated by settlements with Palestinians forced into tighter and tighter enclaves. This is not a recipe for long term peace
- ejb999 3y ago
  grinding them into the dust was not a 'small part of the reason', it was the only reason it worked in the first place. What do you think would have happened had the allies given billions of dollars in aid to Germany while the Nazi's were still in power? They would do exactly what the Palestinians have done with the aid they got - bought more weapons and killed more Jews. Palestine has already received much, much, much more aid - in inflation adjusted dollars per capita, than Germany ever did - the only missing ingredient is destroying the terrorists and their supporters that run the country and then controlling, with absolute power, what that money is spent on - only then will things change for the better for both Israel and the Palestinians.
  - biorach 3y ago
    The reality on the ground in the West Bank runs contrary to this story. Two infitadas crushed, Arafat long dead, a supine administration facilitates Israeli military occupation, Israeli settlers continue to pour in, expropriation and colonisation continue, the Israeli army dominates a territory where things only change for the worse for Palestinians. In the West Bank "destroying the terrorists and their supporters that run the country" had lead to settlers and the army forcing Palestinians into every smaller enclaves making a Palestinian state increasingly unviable. So no. Please do not claim that "grinding them into the dust" is going to lead to a better future for Palestinians. It is leading to colonisation and oppression.

by ejb999 3y ago

acdha 3y ago

I’m not saying it’s impossible but that it’s a numbers game: if you have a messy battle with Hamas and kill a dozen people who were in the wrong place at the wrong time, that’s a dozen lotto tickets for the n% chance that one of the people who knew them succumbs to the propaganda saying the answer is to join Hamas and strike back. Angry people make rash decisions, especially if they think they don’t have choices. I would highly recommend reading the FP article I linked. The author has researched this for years and one of the things which has made this so depressing for me is more cogently discussed in their work about what causes people to resort to violence. Japan and Germany had their share of angry losers, but they also had productive opportunities for most people – the U.S. wasn’t taking their land for American settlers and crowding them onto reservations. If you’re a Palestinian teenager aware of the outside world but resigned to a life of subsistence farming or living on foreign aid, and then someone destroys your family’s farm and says that the land they stole is theirs now, violence is going to look more reasonable because pretty much everything else has been removed. That’s completely unlike WWII, or even Vietnam, and I don’t think we’ll see anything good come from it. Now, imagine some fantasy where Israel leaves occupied Palestine to a UN peacekeeping mission or, say, the United States gives a big chunk of BLM land to anyone who wants to emigrate (not saying this is politically possible, just for the sake of argument). You’re that same Palestinian teenager who’s been shat on your entire life but now you have the option of likely being killed fighting on behalf of people you couldn’t vote for and clearly don’t care about you … or you could do literally anything else with your life and have a much better chance of living to age 30. Having options is hugely transformative and I think any path out of this has to involve finding one.

shiroiuma 3y ago
>or, say, the United States gives a big chunk of BLM land to anyone who wants to emigrate For people who don't know, especially non-Americans, "BLM land" refers to unoccupied rural, wild land mainly in the western US states that's owned and managed by the federal government's Bureau of Land Management. It has nothing to do with the Black Lives Matter movement.
- acdha 3y ago
  Hah, yes, I should have clarified since that is way more confusing now than it used to be.

biorach 3y ago

> Japan and Germany have been pretty well behaved since the Allies ground them to the dust during WW2 - why do you think it couldn't work here? The grinding into dust was a small part of the reason for the successful outcome The main victor in WWII poured vast resources into rebuilding the economies of Germany and Japan, ensured their viability as nation states, fostered democracy and encouraged the creation of an environment fostering equality, cooperation and growth. This all ensured residual bitterness was overcome relatively quickly. Israel so far has done very much the opposite to the Palestinians. The prospects for long term peace look grim without a more magnanimous victor. The West Bank is every year more decimated by settlements with Palestinians forced into tighter and tighter enclaves. This is not a recipe for long term peace

ejb999 3y ago
grinding them into the dust was not a 'small part of the reason', it was the only reason it worked in the first place. What do you think would have happened had the allies given billions of dollars in aid to Germany while the Nazi's were still in power? They would do exactly what the Palestinians have done with the aid they got - bought more weapons and killed more Jews. Palestine has already received much, much, much more aid - in inflation adjusted dollars per capita, than Germany ever did - the only missing ingredient is destroying the terrorists and their supporters that run the country and then controlling, with absolute power, what that money is spent on - only then will things change for the better for both Israel and the Palestinians.
- biorach 3y ago
  The reality on the ground in the West Bank runs contrary to this story. Two infitadas crushed, Arafat long dead, a supine administration facilitates Israeli military occupation, Israeli settlers continue to pour in, expropriation and colonisation continue, the Israeli army dominates a territory where things only change for the worse for Palestinians. In the West Bank "destroying the terrorists and their supporters that run the country" had lead to settlers and the army forcing Palestinians into every smaller enclaves making a Palestinian state increasingly unviable. So no. Please do not claim that "grinding them into the dust" is going to lead to a better future for Palestinians. It is leading to colonisation and oppression.