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I think the rockets being fired into Israel is one threat, but the far greater threat is just Hamas repeating the October 7th invasion again. They've said, num
by edanm 3y ago
I think the rockets being fired into Israel is one threat, but the far greater threat is just Hamas repeating the October 7th invasion again.
They've said, numerous times, that they will do it - invade Israel again and again, killing as many Israelis as they can. (Leaders have also said they will kill Jews anywhere in the world, btw.)
If Israel doesn't take out Hamas, it is entirely unclear if it will be able to prevent them from carrying out more attacks in the future.
- __blockcipher__ 3y ago> Leaders have also said they will kill Jews anywhere in the world, btw I'm curious, is your claim that one of the current leaders of Hamas said this? If so I'd love to read the quote. > If Israel doesn't take out Hamas, it is entirely unclear if it will be able to prevent them from carrying out more attacks in the future. One counterargument is that taking out Hamas, if they succeed (I'm not bullish), is likely to just result in another possibly more radical group rising to power. Doubly so when we've seen something like 20,000 casualties in the last two months, overwhelmingly civilian, which is very obviously going to breed another generation that is full of hatred and vengeance. Anyway, moving on I frankly think it should be possible for Israel to prevent another October 7 even in a universe where Hamas is still in power. They have enormous technological and economic superiority as well as the full backing of the US government. It seems like dysfunctional organizational dynamics are a problem here, because Israel had all the intel it could possibly have needed to see this attack coming and stop it, but it didn't. So personally I think looking internally rather than externally is the most likely way to secure the safety of the Israeli populace into the future.
- thrownv7032g 3y agoIf you want to see what Hamas says, or the tone of a segment of regional discussions, I encourage you to use your favorite translator on https://www.aljazeera.net/ https://www.aljazeera.net/. The arabic-language views are not always shared on the english-language version. The blog section is particularly aggressive at times. For the most inflammatory statements by leaders you can look at https://www.memri.org/ https://www.memri.org/, whose translation choices are sometimes disputed, and who is accused of being some sort of CIA-backed saboteur for choosing the worst statements without enough context, but I think can give you an idea.
- __blockcipher__ 3y agoI'm familiar with Memri, although it seems like less of a CIA op and more of an Israeli / American Zionist op. Then again, there might be a lot of overlap between the two :P (Wiki claims that it's founded by "Israeli ex-intelligence officer Yigal Carmon and Israeli-American political scientist Meyrav Wurmser") I'm no fan of Hamas. Although speaking personally, I will never condemn any attacks of theirs on Israeli military installations or IDF tanks/soldiers. But any civilian killed intentionally is a war crime. I was really saddened to hear about the attack in Jerusalem where two Hamas gunmen killed a couple of civilians. To me that stuff is totally unjustifiable. I wish Hamas would give up dreams of reclaiming the originally stolen Palestinian land; it's not right that the land was taken but for better or for worse Israel is here to stay. I would like to see them fight a defensive war, with any offensive operations (i.e. crossing into Israel) focused only on military targets. In reality that's unlikely to ever happen, but if Hamas just did that then they would have the indisputable moral highground, instead of the current reality where in absolute numbers they commit way less evil than Israel but are clearly full of darkness themselves.
- ashirusnw 3y agoIf Hamas would take up a defensive stance, there would never be any conflict. The only reason Israel attacks has been in response to terrorism. You seem to view Hamas as just an extreme pro-Palestinian faction that's gone too far, but actually they're a terrorism group in every sense of the word, not tomorrow's leaders. (See video of Hamas throwing Fatah members off a rooftop one by one to their deaths, as one of numerous examples, besides that USA, EU, UK, Canada ... all class it was a terrorist organisation)
- hbt 3y agoHamas is a resistance movement and they have every right to resist by any means necessary. the same way the French resisted against the Nazis or the algerians against the French occupation. I don't hear french resistance being called terrorists despite sabotage operations, assassinations of nazi personnel and executing collaborators. they carried a successful military raid, captured hostages and exchanged them for Palestinian hostages. I completely reject the classification of Hamas as a terrorist group by countries that won't even join the international criminal court to protect their war criminals.
- vacuity 3y agoTo your last paragraph, as I understand it, 9/11 was also moreso caused by lack of intelligence being acted on properly, rather than being completely blindsided. Of course, it may be that all the surveillance measures could mitigate future terrorist attacks, but in reality the cost is high and the benefits are empirically not great. I think that if Israel withdraws now and focuses on defense, it may not prevent (civilian, primarily) deaths entirely, but it will be more workable for a lasting truce in the future. I don't want to say that those deaths would be a "sacrifice" or "necessary evil", but it is a realistic cost, as unfair as it is.
- edanm 3y ago> I'm curious, is your claim that one of the current leaders of Hamas said this? If so I'd love to read the quote. I saw a video of this today, the quote was from 2019 though (and he was condemned for it and walked it back), so maybe this shouldn't be taken "too seriously" (it was on my mind cause I saw it today, mostly): > In July 2019, Hamad urged members of the Palestinian diaspora to kill "Jews everywhere". His comments were characterized as incitement to genocide by Committee for Accuracy in Middle East Reporting in America[18] and the Simon Wiesenthal Center.[19] His rhetoric was widely condemned by other Palestinians and he later stated that he supports the Hamas policy of "limiting its resistance to the Zionist occupation that usurps Palestine’s land and defiles its holy sites". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fathi_Hamad https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fathi_Hamad > One counterargument is that taking out Hamas, if they succeed (I'm not bullish), is likely to just result in another possibly more radical group rising to power. Doubly so when we've seen something like 20,000 casualties in the last two months, overwhelmingly civilian, which is very obviously going to breed another generation that is full of hatred and vengeance. Firstly, I'm not sure what you mean by "overwhelmingly civilian". Hamas doesn't publish numbers of militants vs. civilians, as far as I know the only good source for that figure is the IDF, which says more or less a 2:1 ratio (civilian:militant). Is that "overwhelmingly" civilian? Secondly, what's the alternative? Leave Hamas in power, trying to do this again and again? It's true that Israel doesn't have many good options here, it's all variations of bad, but taking out Hamas is a decent way to gain a lot of security. (And is better for the long-term peace process, IMO, and better for Gazans.) > [...] I frankly think it should be possible for Israel to prevent another October 7 even in a universe where Hamas is still in power. I thought so too, but after talking a lot about this I think you're wrong. Hamas aren't idiots - they're a smart, increasingly well-funded enemy. Israel has a lot of capabilities, but Hamas is right on the border. They are fully capable of waiting a few years and then launching another attack using other means. They are fully capable of eroding Israel's ability to defend the border by sending "peaceful civilians" to the border, putting Israel in a position of either shooting at civilians or accepting many thousands of people on the border (similar happened in 2018). Their rockets are getting better, their intel gathering is getting better, etc. It is incredibly naive (and arrogant!) to think you can forever outwit an enemy. Guerilla armies have beaten larger forces many times. Not to mention, the more defense you throw at them, the more economically costly this is for you,
- babyshake 3y agoNot saying I disagree, but where does the 20,000 overwhelmingly civilian number come from? One of the things that seems really difficult about Hamas is from my understanding, they do not wear a uniform and shelter amongst non-combatantants.
- Aerbil313 3y ago> 20,000 overwhelmingly civilian deaths Just putting it out there that the median age in Palestine is 18. Almost half the population is children. Figure out the rest yourself.
- C6JEsQeQa5fCjE 3y agoA fair question, but it is really not difficult to see why the claim must be true. Here [1] is one source for the death toll in Gaza by direct military action (not including people burried under the rubble of destroyed buildings, dying of starvation, all the lives that disease will claim over the following weeks and months and so on). About 70% of killed people are estimated to be women and children. Those are not Hamas fighters. Even if you assume that every adult male that has been killed was a Hamas fighter (which is obviously not going to be the case), and even if we pretend that men being killed is okay, that is still 70% of civilians dying compared to enemy combatants. That is the basis for "overwhelmingly civilian" deaths claim. Israel also constantly claimed that Hamas is hiding in tunnels underground, yet they were killing people by bombing residential buildings in a display of logical contradiction. That alone will lead one to conclude that they are mostly killing civilians. [1] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/how-many-palestinians-have-died-gaza-war-how-will-counting-continue-2023-12-06/ https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/how-many-palestini...
- kurthr 3y agoI think it's interesting to believe that Israel can effectively and permanently take out Hamas (and the like), while they cannot prevent October 7th. Either they have sufficient intelligence/surveillance or they don't. The last "election" in 2006 was the year after a majority of the population of Gaza was born (median age 18), and politically, it seems Netanyahu prefers Hamas to any less radical representation, because fear is a tool. Furthermore, the leadership of Hamas doesn't even reside within Gaza (in Qatar), though it's not like Israel holds it's targeted killings within its borders, either. The people of both sides suffer, but those outside and those with political power on both sides are eliminationist. I think it's important to listen to member of cabinet when they say "nukes are on the table" or a settler when they say that everything from the Nile to Tripoli are rightfully theirs, when you evaluate similar Hamas rhetoric. https://apnews.com/article/israel-nuclear-weapons-gaza-iran-china-1e18f34dcec40582166796b0ade65768 https://apnews.com/article/israel-nuclear-weapons-gaza-iran-... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BETNqgBCjwc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BETNqgBCjwc Israel claims that 55 Hamas commanders have been killed. What is the proper ratio of that to civilian deaths (17,700)? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_2023_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_2023_Israel%... How does Israel know there are bunker/tunnels under the Al Sharif hospital? They built them. https://www.newsweek.com/fact-check-did-israel-build-bunker-under-shifa-hospital-1844107 https://www.newsweek.com/fact-check-did-israel-build-bunker-...
- ashirusnw 3y ago[flagged]
- hbt 3y agolook at a map of the west bank and tell me more about those massive peace efforts. if living under a blockade or under military occupation is your idea of peace, no wonder people are resisting. Israel is not interested in peace, they're interested in submission.
- edanm 3y ago> I think it's interesting to believe that Israel can effectively and permanently take out Hamas (and the like), while they cannot prevent October 7th. Either they have sufficient intelligence/surveillance or they don't. That's a false dichotomy. Preventing surprise attacks on your soil, given an enemy that is smart and tries to outsmart you, is a completely different thing to engaging in war. > The people of both sides suffer, but those outside and those with political power on both sides are eliminationist. I think it's important to listen to member of cabinet when they say "nukes are on the table" or a settler when they say that everything from the Nile to Tripoli are rightfully theirs, when you evaluate similar Hamas rhetoric. These are fringe views among the Israeli public, which you can see because that minister was widely condemned for that remark and withdrew it, and most statements made by Israeli politicians state the opposite. Hamas's leaders have repeated the claim that they will perform October 7th over and over and over. And they actually did it when having the chance. There can be no doubt in any rational person that, were they to have the means to do it again, they would. Both sides are simply not equal here in their desires, and there's no reading of the facts that shows otherwise. (And btw, like many people on the Israeli center-left, I hate the settlers too, and definitely consider some of their actions to be terrorism much like Hamas's, though far smaller in scope, fortunately.) > Israel claims that 55 Hamas commanders have been killed. What is the proper ratio of that to civilian deaths (17,700)? I have no idea where you're getting that figure. Israel says that it estimates are that 5-7k militants have been killed. > How does Israel know there are bunker/tunnels under the Al Sharif hospital? They built them. What is your point? That Israel built some tunnels at some point doesn't prove anything. The Israeli claim is that an entire tunnel network was built out by Hamas for the purpose of using it as headquarters and to commit terror attacks. Which is true and verified.
- covercash 3y agoYou can’t take out Hamas with military force unless you eliminate every Palestinian in Gaza. “Hamas” is just the current name for oppressed people pushed to their limits who are using the scraps at their disposal to fight back against decades of abuse. So long as there is an apartheid state there will be people who fight back with whatever they can get their hands on, no matter what they call themselves. Israel has all the power to end this, but the current government and their supporters view Palestinians as less than human. Coming to any table with that mentality will result in a less than equitable solution which will just perpetuate the oppressive lives of those in Gaza… and allow “Hamas” to live on. My batshit crazy idea to resolve this… put 10 Israeli mothers who lost children on October 7 and 10 Palestinian mothers who have lost children in the bombings since into a room. Have them share their stories, the memories of those they lost, grieve together… and then task them with finding a solution to make sure no Israeli or Palestinian mother ever has to feel that again. I’d bet everything that they’d come out of that room with an equitable solution.
- ashirusnw 3y agoIsraelis don't view them as less than human, that's ridiculous and refuted by numerous polls and surveys of Israeli society. Israeli Arabs are represented in the knesset and have equal rights to any Israeli citizens. (Although in places like East Jerusalem which is neither Israeli nor West Bank, they are treated halfway in terms of security restrictions or building rights, which is where most of the accusations of discrimination come from.) Hamas are not freedom fighters of oppression. They are an implacable anti-semitic bloodthirsty terrorist group who murder and oppress Palestinians as well as Israelis. The true resolution is for Palestinians to give up on the idea of destroying Israel proper and cease the non-stop attacks on Jews from 1929 until today, which in turn will result in no need to monitor and control against these constant threats on Israeli lives. Hamas killed Bedouin Arabs on October 7th too. Even according to the way you wish to view the conflict, after the 2005 disengagement from Gaza, what excuse did Hamas have to commit murders of Israeli civilians?
- Aerbil313 3y ago> non-stop attacks on Jews from 1929 until today Jews, Christians and Muslims in the area were coexisting peacefully under Ottoman rule. I wonder what happened to result in this situation? Possibly illegal settlements? Ever heard of The Nakba? Also, zionist Jews view even Americans less than human: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lq28ZFNzaWM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lq28ZFNzaWM