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> Ideology may have been used as an excuse but it played no role in the actual decision making. The primary driver for Russia's invasion of Ukraine is Putin's

> Ideology may have been used as an excuse but it played no role in the actual decision making. The primary driver for Russia's invasion of Ukraine is Putin's fantasy of a restored Russian empire: https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/05/russia-ukraine-empire-imperialism-war/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/05/russia-ukraine-empire-i... He wanted to be the one what got Ukraine. He wanted it to be his legacy. Putin's legacy instead will be the man who made Russia poorer, weaker, more isolated, and more dependent on China. > it makes perfect sense that in 2014 Russia would try to seize Crimea and support separatists in the east - it prevents Ukraine from joining NATO, it secures Sevastopol, it drives a wedge between Europe and the US Putin's actions have had the direct consequence of strengthening and expanding NATO. It has also guaranteed that Ukraine will join the EU and eventually NATO. The only "wedge" that exists between the US and Europe is someone like Donald Trump. If Trump is reelected he will do everything he can think of to leave NATO: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/01/trump-2024-reelection-pull-out-of-nato-membership/676120/ https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/01/trump-2... And so Putin will do everything he can think of to get Trump reelected.

jjk166 3y ago
> The primary driver for Russia's invasion of Ukraine is Putin's fantasy of a restored Russian empire: That's the kind of thesis a 10 year old comes up with for a history paper the night before its due. It does not stand up to the slightest scrutiny. > Putin's actions have had the direct consequence of strengthening and expanding NATO. It has also guaranteed that Ukraine will join the EU and eventually NATO. I was very clearly presenting the thought process prior to the war, it's only in hindsight that we know NATO came out ahead from all this. All indications immediately before the invasion were that Ukraine would get steam rolled and NATO would look impotent. > The only "wedge" that exists between the US and Europe is someone like Donald Trump. Again, laughably false. This may come as a surprise but there's more to geopolitics than just American presidential elections.
- clouddrover 3y ago
  > It does not stand up to the slightest scrutiny. It's the practical reality. Putin has said Ukraine is not a real country and Ukrainians are not a real people. Ukraine has spent nearly two years now explaining to him that he is wrong. Putin is a slow learner.
  - jjk166 3y ago
    In what way does that support the argument?
    - clouddrover 3y ago
      In what way does practical reality support the argument? This is the real world and the real world has real consequences. In the real world practical realities are all that matter. Putin thinks Ukraine "is an inalienable part of our own history, culture, and spiritual space." Putin thinks "Ukraine's ruling circles decided to justify their country's independence through the denial of its past, however, except for border issues. They began to mythologize and rewrite history, edit out everything that united us, and refer to the period when Ukraine was part of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union as an occupation." Putin thinks "Ukraine has never had its own authentic statehood. There has never been a sustainable statehood in Ukraine." Putin thinks "that true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia." Putin thinks Ukrainians and Russians "are one people" But, to Putin's bafflement, somehow, mysteriously, Ukrainians don't seem to understand that. Putin's advisors advise “forcing coercion into fraternal relations is the only method that has historically proven effective towards Ukraine.” So Putin's trying that. It's not going very well. Many Russians are dying for Putin's vanity: https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/12/politics/russia-troop-losses-us-intelligence-assessment/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/12/politics/russia-troop-losses-...
      - jjk166 3y ago
        No, in what way does any of that support the argument that the war was motivated by Putin's personal desire for conquest. It is in fact not practical reality, it is a fiction created by the Kremlin. Claiming Ukraine isn't a sovereign state is Russian propaganda to obfuscate the obvious breach of international law, it is neither a genuinely held belief nor a reason for the war.
- dragonwriter 3y ago
  > That's the kind of thesis a 10 year old comes up with for a history paper the night before its due. Putin has fairly literally said that, including in his speech immediately after the commencement of the 2022 escalation. Oh, sure, he also stated all the other justifications that his propaganda drones rotate between about NATO expansion in its neighborhood (which is really only a problem because it is a barrier to the expansionist fantasy), and Ukraine not being a real country (which is ultimately just a different spin on the imperial dream, when you think about it). > All indications immediately before the invasion were that Ukraine would get steam rolled and NATO would look impotent. I assume you mean the 2022 escalation, and not the invasion starting the war in 2014, but in any case Russia steamrolling Ukraine would have been worse for Ukrained, clearly, but it would have even more vividly demonstrated the threat to Russia's near neighbors of not having a strong alliance with deployed forces and strong commitment.
  - jjk166 3y ago
    > Putin has fairly literally said that, including in his speech immediately after the commencement of the 2022 escalation. If you can show me the quote where Putin said "I disregarded geopolitics and launched this invasion to satisfy my fantasy of conquest" I'll eat my hat. Again, this has been the standard Russian playbook since the 1700s. I find it awfully difficult to believe that Catherine the Great was making decisions to stroke the ego of a man who wouldn't come to power until 200 years after her death. > I assume you mean the 2022 escalation, and not the invasion starting the war in 2014 I'm pretty sure if you could only label one of those two events as "the invasion" it would unambiguously be the one in 2022. That being said, the idea that Russia would handily defeat Ukraine in a conventional war was widely believed in 2014 as well, hence the long struggle to avoid the conflict escalating.

jjk166 3y ago

> The primary driver for Russia's invasion of Ukraine is Putin's fantasy of a restored Russian empire: That's the kind of thesis a 10 year old comes up with for a history paper the night before its due. It does not stand up to the slightest scrutiny. > Putin's actions have had the direct consequence of strengthening and expanding NATO. It has also guaranteed that Ukraine will join the EU and eventually NATO. I was very clearly presenting the thought process prior to the war, it's only in hindsight that we know NATO came out ahead from all this. All indications immediately before the invasion were that Ukraine would get steam rolled and NATO would look impotent. > The only "wedge" that exists between the US and Europe is someone like Donald Trump. Again, laughably false. This may come as a surprise but there's more to geopolitics than just American presidential elections.

clouddrover 3y ago
> It does not stand up to the slightest scrutiny. It's the practical reality. Putin has said Ukraine is not a real country and Ukrainians are not a real people. Ukraine has spent nearly two years now explaining to him that he is wrong. Putin is a slow learner.
- jjk166 3y ago
  In what way does that support the argument?
  - clouddrover 3y ago
    In what way does practical reality support the argument? This is the real world and the real world has real consequences. In the real world practical realities are all that matter. Putin thinks Ukraine "is an inalienable part of our own history, culture, and spiritual space." Putin thinks "Ukraine's ruling circles decided to justify their country's independence through the denial of its past, however, except for border issues. They began to mythologize and rewrite history, edit out everything that united us, and refer to the period when Ukraine was part of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union as an occupation." Putin thinks "Ukraine has never had its own authentic statehood. There has never been a sustainable statehood in Ukraine." Putin thinks "that true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia." Putin thinks Ukrainians and Russians "are one people" But, to Putin's bafflement, somehow, mysteriously, Ukrainians don't seem to understand that. Putin's advisors advise “forcing coercion into fraternal relations is the only method that has historically proven effective towards Ukraine.” So Putin's trying that. It's not going very well. Many Russians are dying for Putin's vanity: https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/12/politics/russia-troop-losses-us-intelligence-assessment/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/12/politics/russia-troop-losses-...
    - jjk166 3y ago
      No, in what way does any of that support the argument that the war was motivated by Putin's personal desire for conquest. It is in fact not practical reality, it is a fiction created by the Kremlin. Claiming Ukraine isn't a sovereign state is Russian propaganda to obfuscate the obvious breach of international law, it is neither a genuinely held belief nor a reason for the war.
dragonwriter 3y ago
> That's the kind of thesis a 10 year old comes up with for a history paper the night before its due. Putin has fairly literally said that, including in his speech immediately after the commencement of the 2022 escalation. Oh, sure, he also stated all the other justifications that his propaganda drones rotate between about NATO expansion in its neighborhood (which is really only a problem because it is a barrier to the expansionist fantasy), and Ukraine not being a real country (which is ultimately just a different spin on the imperial dream, when you think about it). > All indications immediately before the invasion were that Ukraine would get steam rolled and NATO would look impotent. I assume you mean the 2022 escalation, and not the invasion starting the war in 2014, but in any case Russia steamrolling Ukraine would have been worse for Ukrained, clearly, but it would have even more vividly demonstrated the threat to Russia's near neighbors of not having a strong alliance with deployed forces and strong commitment.
- jjk166 3y ago
  > Putin has fairly literally said that, including in his speech immediately after the commencement of the 2022 escalation. If you can show me the quote where Putin said "I disregarded geopolitics and launched this invasion to satisfy my fantasy of conquest" I'll eat my hat. Again, this has been the standard Russian playbook since the 1700s. I find it awfully difficult to believe that Catherine the Great was making decisions to stroke the ego of a man who wouldn't come to power until 200 years after her death. > I assume you mean the 2022 escalation, and not the invasion starting the war in 2014 I'm pretty sure if you could only label one of those two events as "the invasion" it would unambiguously be the one in 2022. That being said, the idea that Russia would handily defeat Ukraine in a conventional war was widely believed in 2014 as well, hence the long struggle to avoid the conflict escalating.