3 ms·
In everyday Business, there's a thing called 'The Manager's Dilemma'. When you need something critical, the question is: Do we 'buy-built' from somebody else? T
by simonblack 3y ago
In everyday Business, there's a thing called 'The Manager's Dilemma'. When you need something critical, the question is: Do we 'buy-built' from somebody else? That way it's faster. cheaper and easier, but we're at the mercy of that supplier. Or do we 'roll our own'? That's a lot harder, longer and more expensive, but at least we won't be at the mercy of that other supplier.
For decades, the Chinese were very happy not having to build up a home-grown, very expensive, semiconductor industry when they could 'buy-built' from a bunch of US semi companies. The US semi companies loved it because they earned several hundred billion dollars a year in exports to China. 'Win-win' for all concerned.
Enter the US politicians. "Let's ban exports of US chips to China. That will hold them back."
So now the Chinese have no choice but to spend all that cash, time and effort to begin to 'roll their own' chip industries.
So now the US companies have lost the biggest chip market in the world. They don't have enough R&D funds to keep in front of the pack, and they become uncompetitive.
On the other hand, while the Chinese start-up chip makers might lag behind for a few years, they have great economies of scale selling their own products to the largest chip market in the world. They now have sufficient R&D funds to forge ahead of the US chip companies, and can begin to undercut their previous suppliers.
In less than a decade, the US chip companies are mere shadows of their former selves and are heading for oblivion. And the Chinese chip companies have wiped out their previous suppliers by being cheaper competitors. And the US semiconductor industry follows the US textiles, steel, small appliance, paper, and all those other former US industries to the scrapheap of History.
And all because some dick-head US politician wanted to 'hold back the Chinese'. There are always unintended consequences. Karma always comes back to bite you in the ass.