6 ms·

Ford cutting 2024 F-150 Lightning production plans by half

28 points by grecy 3y ago

GenerWork 3y ago
>"The news comes amid an industrywide pullback in EV investment due to slower-than-expected sales growth." This slower-than-expected sales growth is primarily due to the higher-than-expected pricing increases across the board for EVs that are made by car companies that aren't 100% EV by design, as well as higher interest rates.
- bryanlarsen 3y ago
  US EV sales growth is almost 40% this year. What kind of expectations did they have?
  - dmix 3y ago
    What kind of sales growth looked good to shareholders at the time*
    - sremani 3y ago
      They invested approximately $6 billion. Transferred Mustang brand to EVs. Ford made real investments and Monroe Live has rated Ford vehicles second best after Tesla and that is exactly the problem with EV market. Non-Tesla EVs suffer from lackluster sales is a known fact. Ford thought if they made investments they could succeed, and their initial release coincided with vehicle shortage so the early run inventory sold hot, but once market settled and early enthusiasm waned, the sales fell off the cliff.
  - glitchc 3y ago
    I'm sure Ford is looking at total numbers, not percentages. They have invested significant resources in their EV division and the ICE division is apt for comparison. After all, going from 1 to 2 sales is 100% growth!!!! /s
  - neogodless 3y ago
    US EV sales are way up[0]. > Through the first nine months of the year, EV sales are up nearly 50 percent, already surpassing the full-year total for 2022. Ford US EV sales are up but way less than 40%[1]. > Sales are up 16.2%. They’ve increased from 53,752 in the first 11 months of 2022 to 62,460 in the first 11 months of 2023. [0] https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/electric-vehicles/chart-us-ev-sales-are-having-a-record-setting-year https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/electric-vehicles/chart... [1] https://cleantechnica.com/2023/12/08/ford-ev-sales-up-43/ https://cleantechnica.com/2023/12/08/ford-ev-sales-up-43/
coolbreezetft22 3y ago
wow the demographic who buy giant F-150 trucks don't want EVs, what a shock
- allenrb 3y ago
  That’s what I’m wondering. Are slow sales happening across the board? Or is it focused on segments where “traditional EV buyers” tend not to shop?
- halyconWays 3y ago
  The F-150 Lightning was the same size
- patwolf 3y ago
  I don't think driving a truck means that you're necessarily against EVs. The Rivian is proof that truck buyers do want EVs. Ultimately a truck has to provide utility. The Lightning just doesn't offer enough utility for the price. I initially put down a deposit on the Lightning, but then the price got jacked up multiple times. And there were quality issues, and the towing range was terrible, and the charging network was subpar. It's not surprising that Ford is having to cut production.
  - rokkitmensch 3y ago
    Are those "truck buyers who bought an EV" or "EV buyers who bought a truck"?
bryanlarsen 3y ago
There were people waiting for the Cybertruck pricing announcement; they were like "If the Cybertruck is actually $40K I'll get that, but otherwise I'll get a Lightning". Or "If they actually have a 500 mile Cybertruck I'll get that despite its looks". Neither came true, so Ford is probably reducing production just as they get a bump in orders.
- anticorporate 3y ago
  Exactly. Now, the lack of inventory will cause slow sales to become a self-fulfilling prophesy This, plus, I'm not sure the F-150 was the right platform target to begin with. Maybe for commercial sales, but not necessarily for the general public. The F-150 Lightning is still a "big" truck, and the trim options actually available from dealerships all seem to be the most expensive ones. There are zero models within 100 miles of me at the base trim, and only one under $70,000, but dozens of everything-but-the-kitchen-sink trucks that are priced more like real estate than vehicles. All I want is a no-frills electric truck that I can go grab some boards from the local hardware store with. Instead I'm better off with a Ford Ranger that gets 26 MPG and putting the $50,000+ I saved into offsetting my carbon impact a different way.
- jandrese 3y ago
  Tesla screwed the pooch with the Cybertruck. The looks get crapped on a lot, but if they were selling those things for $40,000 people would have bought them anyway, especially if it qualified for the full federal tax credit. The $70,000 price point is an early Christmas gift to Ford and Rivian.
  - rch 3y ago
    Mainly Rivian, based on this news.
    - rokkitmensch 3y ago
      And if Rivian, then all of the tire manufacturers as well! I've been taking photos of Rivian front tires and it's comical how shredded they get while the rears look pristine.
givemeethekeys 3y ago
Unlike Tesla, which makes a profit on its EV's, most other EV makers lose money on every car. Losing money on every car when there are economic clouds approaching probably doesn't make the accounting department happy.
- bdcravens 3y ago
  Are they? I haven't seen any numbers to back up that claim. Do you have any you can share? I know that Kia has been seeing record profits on the back of strong EV sales, but perhaps they're an outlier.
  - givemeethekeys 3y ago
    I watch a fair amount of automotive content on YouTube, and not being able to make a profit (yet) on EV's is a repeating theme for legacy automakers. A quick search found this: https://s201.q4cdn.com/693218008/files/doc_financials/2023/q3/Ford-Again-Attracts-New-Customers-Drives-Growth-in-Q3-Company-Changing-How-it-Works-to-Improve-Quality-Costs.pdf https://s201.q4cdn.com/693218008/files/doc_financials/2023/q... https://www.forbes.com/sites/samabuelsamid/2022/11/17/gm-targets-ev-profitability-by-2025/?sh=1a1a04aa3033 https://www.forbes.com/sites/samabuelsamid/2022/11/17/gm-tar...
zhivota 3y ago
They should just take away the Chinese tariffs at this point so BYD and Geely can come in and clean the US automakers out. Any idiot can see that a cheap EV or even hybrid is all people want, but no one wants to deliver it.
- bryanlarsen 3y ago
  It's coming whether the Chinese tariffs go away or not. BYD is building a manufacturing plant in Mexico. Mexican built cars are tariff free.
- coolbreezetft22 3y ago
  even if the EVs are cheap how will they be charged? Most people who can only afford lower priced cars won't own a home with a charger
  - tantalor 3y ago
    For a small EV, charging overnight at 110v is plenty.
    - FirmwareBurner 3y ago
      Yeah but with which 110V socket, from where? If you don't live at your own house and live at a rental apartment complex then you have no charging point at your parking space either way, be it 800V or 110V, until the building management or the city council decides to invest in EV charging infrastructure where you live and park your car. What are you gonna do then, implement those Slav-Engineering™ solutions you see in Eastern Europe where EV owners run household AC extension outlets from their balcony window to their car parked in front of the commie-block? I mean, it works, but it's not legal to code everywhere and would get you in trouble in the more rigorous countries. EVs are currently best suited to those who live in their own homes and can install their own chargers, or have chargers at work. Those without chargers at home are left holding the bags in the switch to EVs, hence why adoption is so slow.
      - 3y ago
daft_pink 3y ago
I think most EV buyers would prefer a Tesla to be honest. Better charging experience, better technology and better engineering.
- jerlam 3y ago
  I don't think the Lightning and Tesla customer base overlap that much.
  - josefresco 3y ago
    They do, and those people bought a Rivian RT1.
- coolbreezetft22 3y ago
  Where I live (admittedly not representative of the entire country) I see a ton of non-tesla EVs, but they are all compact SUVs like the mach-e, vw id4, hyundai etc. Not many trucks other than that Rivian
  - skullone 3y ago
    Slow car sales in general is a thing, I think I read there's like 3 million brand new cars sitting in inventory, when the normal is less than a million
    - hotpotamus 3y ago
      I've been wondering how people are affording cars as the average sale price has increased so dramatically. Perhaps the answer is that they are not. I'm sure holding onto my cheap beater of a car for as long as I can since no manufacturer seems to want to make that sort of vehicle any more.
      - lnsru 3y ago
        I might afford one. The motivation is saving 250€ on petrol every month. And maybe saving on repairs I do now by myself on my driveway. But still €45k for used model Y performance or a new short range one is a lot. I keep my old failing car as long as I can.
jandrese 3y ago
They scaled the production for the $40,000 truck they promised, but only gave the dealers the $58,000 or up models to sell. If you could buy a Lightning for $32,500 after federal tax credit they wouldn't be able to keep them on the lot. But that inital pent up demand was very high so they jacked the price way up to try to capture more money, and now they can't drop it back to Earth to reinvigorate the demand. Also, they're losing money on every truck they sell so dropping the price is undoubtedly distasteful to management, even though everyone knows that volume is how you make money.
- bdcravens 3y ago
  Pretty much every dealer here in the Houston area, which might be the pickup capital of the world (or at least feels like it), is selling them for closer to $80k.
  - jandrese 3y ago
    Or more accurately not selling them, and also refusing to budge on the price.
  - rch 3y ago
    The industry should reset to the power/volume/mass ratio of a 2010 Toyota Tundra, and then design an EV.
    - bigtex 3y ago
      2007 Tundra Limited is peak Tundra for me.
  - Moto7451 3y ago
    I did an auto maker sponsored in person market study and the F150 Lightning was being compared with luxury brands because of the common MSRP points. This 40K electric truck doesn’t really exist.
- el_don_almighty 3y ago
  What did you say? Increase volume when you lose money on every unit? This isn't software... especially when you better accrue a giant pot of warranty money for the inevitable battery and system recalls over the early infant years. I agree with your initial premise about actually introducing low-cost versions, but these must be subsidized by the high margin versions just like airline flights. Business travel pays for the infrastructure used by the masses. The whole model depends on high-margin cash flow carrying the business forward into the high-volume, low-margin production. If there isn't any cash leftover, the whole thing crashes into the terminal at the end of the runway in a fireball.
nashashmi 3y ago
What I remember about the F-150 Lightning is a reviewer's comment: "I don't know the point of an F-150 Lightning is."
philg_jr 3y ago
I feel like the primary issue is the charging network and range. Tesla makes up for its lack of range with an extremely robust network. It doesn't seem like Ford is doing anything to reassure customers they will be able to charge their truck while on a road trip. Americans love to drive. You can get a ICE F-150 with a 35 gallon fuel tank, which will get you 500 miles of highway range. If you tell someone that the Lightning will only get 200 miles of range on the highway, generally they will find that amusing and make some sort of comment about how they don't want the government to force them to buy electric vehicles.
- bryanlarsen 3y ago
  Ford was the first to switch to Tesla's NACS. That was a very robust response IMO.
  - philg_jr 3y ago
    Yes good move, but you can't buy any Ford vehicles with NACS currently. Its supposed to go into effect in 2025 afaik.
jupp0r 3y ago
https://archive.is/EX5aS https://archive.is/EX5aS
jermaustin1 3y ago
I wanted the $40-50k Lightning. I called all of my dealers I've ever bought from. None of them had it. They had the $80-100k Lightnings. The couple of people I know who got the base model got them through buying fleet trucks. I cannot afford to buy 5 trucks, I can't afford to buy 1 truck at the current prices. Thankfully, my 2019 Ford Ranger is probably the closest to the perfect truck as I think I can get, big enough to handle 8 foot lumber, small enough to drive in any congested city (at least in America).
bastard_op 3y ago
I have zero interest in ever buying a new vehicle again in having to interact with a dealership, particularly when every dealer now feels entitled to some random markup in price over MSRP. Despite Musk's cringe factor these days, I'll applaud Tesla for setting a bar in removing the sketchy dealers from reselling their cars and only sell directly. There is little reason for automobile dealers to exist anymore if they're just going to sell at MSRP+dealer markup, there is no value add, they are merely parasitic. The whole point of going to a dealership used to be to get them UNDER MSRP as much as possible, which is how the racket worked. If I wanted to pay retail, I should just be able go to the Internet, pick options I want, and go pick it up when it shows up like a Tesla. People should insist on removing the asinine legal requirement for dealers and modernize around the Internet, everyone's lives would be improved significantly other the parasite auto dealers. Remove the middlemen dealerships, get cheaper vehicles. Win Win. Automobile dealers are simply something that should not exist anymore, and this becomes more true every day.
- floxy 3y ago
  >when every dealer now feels entitled to some random markup in price over MSRP. Well, for Ford, that's supposed to get you on the naughty list. https://www.kbb.com/car-news/ford-ceo-warns-dealers-cut-the-markups/ https://www.kbb.com/car-news/ford-ceo-warns-dealers-cut-the-...

28 points by grecy 3y ago

>"The news comes amid an industrywide pullback in EV investment due to slower-than-expected sales growth." This slower-than-expected sales growth is primarily due to the higher-than-expected pricing increases across the board for EVs that are made by car companies that aren't 100% EV by design, as well as higher interest rates.

bryanlarsen 3y ago
US EV sales growth is almost 40% this year. What kind of expectations did they have?
- dmix 3y ago
  What kind of sales growth looked good to shareholders at the time*
  - sremani 3y ago
    They invested approximately $6 billion. Transferred Mustang brand to EVs. Ford made real investments and Monroe Live has rated Ford vehicles second best after Tesla and that is exactly the problem with EV market. Non-Tesla EVs suffer from lackluster sales is a known fact. Ford thought if they made investments they could succeed, and their initial release coincided with vehicle shortage so the early run inventory sold hot, but once market settled and early enthusiasm waned, the sales fell off the cliff.
- glitchc 3y ago
  I'm sure Ford is looking at total numbers, not percentages. They have invested significant resources in their EV division and the ICE division is apt for comparison. After all, going from 1 to 2 sales is 100% growth!!!! /s
- neogodless 3y ago
  US EV sales are way up[0]. > Through the first nine months of the year, EV sales are up nearly 50 percent, already surpassing the full-year total for 2022. Ford US EV sales are up but way less than 40%[1]. > Sales are up 16.2%. They’ve increased from 53,752 in the first 11 months of 2022 to 62,460 in the first 11 months of 2023. [0] https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/electric-vehicles/chart-us-ev-sales-are-having-a-record-setting-year https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/electric-vehicles/chart... [1] https://cleantechnica.com/2023/12/08/ford-ev-sales-up-43/ https://cleantechnica.com/2023/12/08/ford-ev-sales-up-43/

coolbreezetft22 3y ago

wow the demographic who buy giant F-150 trucks don't want EVs, what a shock

allenrb 3y ago
That’s what I’m wondering. Are slow sales happening across the board? Or is it focused on segments where “traditional EV buyers” tend not to shop?
halyconWays 3y ago
The F-150 Lightning was the same size
patwolf 3y ago
I don't think driving a truck means that you're necessarily against EVs. The Rivian is proof that truck buyers do want EVs. Ultimately a truck has to provide utility. The Lightning just doesn't offer enough utility for the price. I initially put down a deposit on the Lightning, but then the price got jacked up multiple times. And there were quality issues, and the towing range was terrible, and the charging network was subpar. It's not surprising that Ford is having to cut production.
- rokkitmensch 3y ago
  Are those "truck buyers who bought an EV" or "EV buyers who bought a truck"?

bryanlarsen 3y ago

There were people waiting for the Cybertruck pricing announcement; they were like "If the Cybertruck is actually $40K I'll get that, but otherwise I'll get a Lightning". Or "If they actually have a 500 mile Cybertruck I'll get that despite its looks". Neither came true, so Ford is probably reducing production just as they get a bump in orders.

anticorporate 3y ago
Exactly. Now, the lack of inventory will cause slow sales to become a self-fulfilling prophesy This, plus, I'm not sure the F-150 was the right platform target to begin with. Maybe for commercial sales, but not necessarily for the general public. The F-150 Lightning is still a "big" truck, and the trim options actually available from dealerships all seem to be the most expensive ones. There are zero models within 100 miles of me at the base trim, and only one under $70,000, but dozens of everything-but-the-kitchen-sink trucks that are priced more like real estate than vehicles. All I want is a no-frills electric truck that I can go grab some boards from the local hardware store with. Instead I'm better off with a Ford Ranger that gets 26 MPG and putting the $50,000+ I saved into offsetting my carbon impact a different way.
jandrese 3y ago
Tesla screwed the pooch with the Cybertruck. The looks get crapped on a lot, but if they were selling those things for $40,000 people would have bought them anyway, especially if it qualified for the full federal tax credit. The $70,000 price point is an early Christmas gift to Ford and Rivian.
- rch 3y ago
  Mainly Rivian, based on this news.
  - rokkitmensch 3y ago
    And if Rivian, then all of the tire manufacturers as well! I've been taking photos of Rivian front tires and it's comical how shredded they get while the rears look pristine.

givemeethekeys 3y ago

Unlike Tesla, which makes a profit on its EV's, most other EV makers lose money on every car. Losing money on every car when there are economic clouds approaching probably doesn't make the accounting department happy.

bdcravens 3y ago
Are they? I haven't seen any numbers to back up that claim. Do you have any you can share? I know that Kia has been seeing record profits on the back of strong EV sales, but perhaps they're an outlier.
- givemeethekeys 3y ago
  I watch a fair amount of automotive content on YouTube, and not being able to make a profit (yet) on EV's is a repeating theme for legacy automakers. A quick search found this: https://s201.q4cdn.com/693218008/files/doc_financials/2023/q3/Ford-Again-Attracts-New-Customers-Drives-Growth-in-Q3-Company-Changing-How-it-Works-to-Improve-Quality-Costs.pdf https://s201.q4cdn.com/693218008/files/doc_financials/2023/q... https://www.forbes.com/sites/samabuelsamid/2022/11/17/gm-targets-ev-profitability-by-2025/?sh=1a1a04aa3033 https://www.forbes.com/sites/samabuelsamid/2022/11/17/gm-tar...

zhivota 3y ago

They should just take away the Chinese tariffs at this point so BYD and Geely can come in and clean the US automakers out. Any idiot can see that a cheap EV or even hybrid is all people want, but no one wants to deliver it.

bryanlarsen 3y ago
It's coming whether the Chinese tariffs go away or not. BYD is building a manufacturing plant in Mexico. Mexican built cars are tariff free.
coolbreezetft22 3y ago
even if the EVs are cheap how will they be charged? Most people who can only afford lower priced cars won't own a home with a charger
- tantalor 3y ago
  For a small EV, charging overnight at 110v is plenty.
  - FirmwareBurner 3y ago
    Yeah but with which 110V socket, from where? If you don't live at your own house and live at a rental apartment complex then you have no charging point at your parking space either way, be it 800V or 110V, until the building management or the city council decides to invest in EV charging infrastructure where you live and park your car. What are you gonna do then, implement those Slav-Engineering™ solutions you see in Eastern Europe where EV owners run household AC extension outlets from their balcony window to their car parked in front of the commie-block? I mean, it works, but it's not legal to code everywhere and would get you in trouble in the more rigorous countries. EVs are currently best suited to those who live in their own homes and can install their own chargers, or have chargers at work. Those without chargers at home are left holding the bags in the switch to EVs, hence why adoption is so slow.
    - 3y ago

daft_pink 3y ago

I think most EV buyers would prefer a Tesla to be honest. Better charging experience, better technology and better engineering.

jerlam 3y ago
I don't think the Lightning and Tesla customer base overlap that much.
- josefresco 3y ago
  They do, and those people bought a Rivian RT1.
coolbreezetft22 3y ago
Where I live (admittedly not representative of the entire country) I see a ton of non-tesla EVs, but they are all compact SUVs like the mach-e, vw id4, hyundai etc. Not many trucks other than that Rivian
- skullone 3y ago
  Slow car sales in general is a thing, I think I read there's like 3 million brand new cars sitting in inventory, when the normal is less than a million
  - hotpotamus 3y ago
    I've been wondering how people are affording cars as the average sale price has increased so dramatically. Perhaps the answer is that they are not. I'm sure holding onto my cheap beater of a car for as long as I can since no manufacturer seems to want to make that sort of vehicle any more.
    - lnsru 3y ago
      I might afford one. The motivation is saving 250€ on petrol every month. And maybe saving on repairs I do now by myself on my driveway. But still €45k for used model Y performance or a new short range one is a lot. I keep my old failing car as long as I can.

jandrese 3y ago

They scaled the production for the $40,000 truck they promised, but only gave the dealers the $58,000 or up models to sell. If you could buy a Lightning for $32,500 after federal tax credit they wouldn't be able to keep them on the lot. But that inital pent up demand was very high so they jacked the price way up to try to capture more money, and now they can't drop it back to Earth to reinvigorate the demand. Also, they're losing money on every truck they sell so dropping the price is undoubtedly distasteful to management, even though everyone knows that volume is how you make money.

bdcravens 3y ago
Pretty much every dealer here in the Houston area, which might be the pickup capital of the world (or at least feels like it), is selling them for closer to $80k.
- jandrese 3y ago
  Or more accurately not selling them, and also refusing to budge on the price.
- rch 3y ago
  The industry should reset to the power/volume/mass ratio of a 2010 Toyota Tundra, and then design an EV.
  - bigtex 3y ago
    2007 Tundra Limited is peak Tundra for me.
- Moto7451 3y ago
  I did an auto maker sponsored in person market study and the F150 Lightning was being compared with luxury brands because of the common MSRP points. This 40K electric truck doesn’t really exist.
el_don_almighty 3y ago
What did you say? Increase volume when you lose money on every unit? This isn't software... especially when you better accrue a giant pot of warranty money for the inevitable battery and system recalls over the early infant years. I agree with your initial premise about actually introducing low-cost versions, but these must be subsidized by the high margin versions just like airline flights. Business travel pays for the infrastructure used by the masses. The whole model depends on high-margin cash flow carrying the business forward into the high-volume, low-margin production. If there isn't any cash leftover, the whole thing crashes into the terminal at the end of the runway in a fireball.

nashashmi 3y ago

What I remember about the F-150 Lightning is a reviewer's comment: "I don't know the point of an F-150 Lightning is."

philg_jr 3y ago

I feel like the primary issue is the charging network and range. Tesla makes up for its lack of range with an extremely robust network. It doesn't seem like Ford is doing anything to reassure customers they will be able to charge their truck while on a road trip. Americans love to drive. You can get a ICE F-150 with a 35 gallon fuel tank, which will get you 500 miles of highway range. If you tell someone that the Lightning will only get 200 miles of range on the highway, generally they will find that amusing and make some sort of comment about how they don't want the government to force them to buy electric vehicles.

bryanlarsen 3y ago
Ford was the first to switch to Tesla's NACS. That was a very robust response IMO.
- philg_jr 3y ago
  Yes good move, but you can't buy any Ford vehicles with NACS currently. Its supposed to go into effect in 2025 afaik.

jupp0r 3y ago

https://archive.is/EX5aS https://archive.is/EX5aS

jermaustin1 3y ago

I wanted the $40-50k Lightning. I called all of my dealers I've ever bought from. None of them had it. They had the $80-100k Lightnings. The couple of people I know who got the base model got them through buying fleet trucks. I cannot afford to buy 5 trucks, I can't afford to buy 1 truck at the current prices. Thankfully, my 2019 Ford Ranger is probably the closest to the perfect truck as I think I can get, big enough to handle 8 foot lumber, small enough to drive in any congested city (at least in America).

bastard_op 3y ago

I have zero interest in ever buying a new vehicle again in having to interact with a dealership, particularly when every dealer now feels entitled to some random markup in price over MSRP. Despite Musk's cringe factor these days, I'll applaud Tesla for setting a bar in removing the sketchy dealers from reselling their cars and only sell directly. There is little reason for automobile dealers to exist anymore if they're just going to sell at MSRP+dealer markup, there is no value add, they are merely parasitic. The whole point of going to a dealership used to be to get them UNDER MSRP as much as possible, which is how the racket worked. If I wanted to pay retail, I should just be able go to the Internet, pick options I want, and go pick it up when it shows up like a Tesla. People should insist on removing the asinine legal requirement for dealers and modernize around the Internet, everyone's lives would be improved significantly other the parasite auto dealers. Remove the middlemen dealerships, get cheaper vehicles. Win Win. Automobile dealers are simply something that should not exist anymore, and this becomes more true every day.

floxy 3y ago
>when every dealer now feels entitled to some random markup in price over MSRP. Well, for Ford, that's supposed to get you on the naughty list. https://www.kbb.com/car-news/ford-ceo-warns-dealers-cut-the-markups/ https://www.kbb.com/car-news/ford-ceo-warns-dealers-cut-the-...