2 ms·
Just some food for thought. I was paying attention to this more closely earlier in the year. Here's the stock ticker for HPP. HPP is the predominate commercial
by SeanAnderson 3y ago
Just some food for thought. I was paying attention to this more closely earlier in the year.
Here's the stock ticker for HPP. HPP is the predominate commercial REIT for the SF Bay Area: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYSE-HPP/ https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYSE-HPP/ They're down ~75% from ATH in 2020, but up 75% since ATL six months ago.
Also, keep in mind that commercial loans get divided into short-term/long-term groupings. A long duration for a short-term loan is 3 years and a short duration for a long-term loan is 5 years. So, there's this sweet spot between 3-5 years after economically-disruptive events where underwater loans created at the peak of the market start to get called. We're a couple of months away from the three-year anniversary of shutdown.
IMHO, the next two years will be very rocky for SF as devaluations become real and start to significantly undermine city taxes, but the last six months have implied that fear was overstated and/or early in late 2022.
It'll be interesting to see what happens next!
- tsunamifury 3y agoI’ve been walking the streets of San Francisco since day one of lockdown watching the unmitigated unidirectional closure of almost everything. And while the slow 4 year plus timeline has normalized most people to what’s happening, my long arc observation is that things are only going to get worse. The ball is about to drop now with the major revaluations lining up as high interest forces more walkways. The impact on city revenue will be significant right when problem think SF is pulling out of things. And the city knows it. They’ve projected it clearly but no one will listen.