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I think the economics of a physical drug substance and gambling are different enough that it’s actually un-apt to draw a comparison between sports betting and a
by tech_ken 3y ago
I think the economics of a physical drug substance and gambling are different enough that it’s actually un-apt to draw a comparison between sports betting and alcohol prohibition. Indeed I think it's actually highly misleading to extrapolate the harms caused by alcohol/drug prohibition to the prohibition on gambling. Caveat: this is all armchair speculation, I have no expertise or research on the matter.
In the case of black market gambling it seems much easier to keep everything within my direct control, thereby limiting the risk of getting a bad product. I can make a wager or play a poker game with my buddy without taking on virtually any “undue” risk (aside the risk I’m taking on intentionally) because he’s my friend and I know he’s not going to kneecap me if I can’t pay. The chain of trust only needs one link, and it’s an easy one to verify. Some people clearly do go farther, and this isn’t to say that large-scale illegal betting doesn’t exist, but it seems like the majority of recreational gambling demand is met by this type of direct person-person transaction where trust is easy-ish to establish or enforce. In this case banning betting has limited harms, because for most people the black-market is relatively low-risk. Indeed legalizing it, and thus allowing big players into the game, actually seems less safe to me. A friendly poker game on Friday nights is going to self-regulate: nobody's too sharp, everyone has roughly equivalent cash reserves, and my friends are probably going to cut me off if it seems like I'm developing an addiction. In the long-run I'm unlikely to find myself too deep in the hole. Compare this to sports betting with DraftKings. I'm against an odds-maker who's WAY savvier, has much deeper reserves than I do, and is incentivized to keep me playing at almost any cost. It's orders of magnitude more likely that I'm going to blow everything I have and then some, and all through a frictionless iOS app while sitting on my couch.
Compare this to the illegal drug trade. Unlike purchasing gambling services, buying ex. cocaine from the same buddy requires a much longer chain of trust, because of the manufacture and distribution processes involved. Even if I trust my buddy not to sell me fentanyl, I have to trust his dealer, and his dealer’s dealer, and the dealer’s dealer’s supply, etc. In this case I very much want lots of regulation ensuring the product isn’t contaminated, contains what it’s supposed to, etc. Legalizing just takes the already-existing supply chain and big players and moves them under government control. In this case the legalized version is far safer than the black market equivalent.
W/r/t legal enforcement side of things the differences seem similar. A small bet between friends is basically impossible to prosecute. It’s only the really big organized stuff that is even possible to detect, legally. On the other hand, a small amount of personal cannabis is very easy to detect and prosecute, often easier than the professional distribution network.
- korse 3y agoYou make an interesting point. Take if for what you will, but there was/is very 'big organized stuff' going on in the illicit gambling world. I had a close family member who spent the end of his life in the Federal custody for being part of it, and he wasn't even 'big time'. This was not long ago. This gets mighty close to conspiracy territory, but I think that the current gambling wave is just a well made business play by the same people who were running the game previously. Kind of like the cartel getting tired of dealing with interdiction and getting into the pharma business (which I don't think is a thing btw).
- tech_ken 3y agoFor sure. There is definitely harms in illegal gambling, I don't want to minimize that at all. But it seems enormously easier for me to create an illegal, yet low-risk gambling product for my friends to consume. It is much, much harder for me to safely manufacture MDMA and distribute it to my social circle. If I want to consume an illegal drug I am more or less required to trust a stranger. I think this difference is serious enough to warrant at the very least consideration in any comparison of the efficacies of prohibition. Looking at ex. DraftKings I think your conspiracy theory is pretty well attested to.
- devilbunny 3y ago> I had a close family member who spent the end of his life in the Federal custody for being part of it, and he wasn't even 'big time'. This was not long ago. Very much so. I've known of people (actual people, not urban legends) who were working as small-time bookies in college (bets under $100, mostly). One started to take bets from non-students and for larger sums. After a few weeks, he got a call from the FBI. They told him it was just a courtesy call to let him know that 1) they knew about him and 2) he was starting to deal with some very very serious organized crime people, so perhaps his wisest choice would be pay out any bets he had taken so far, return any bets that he could, and hang up his hat before he ended up in prison or the ground.