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>Are there constant rolling blackouts NI could face blackouts by 2024 due to coal plant shutdowns. new gas plants arent scheduled until 2026. > Is there a cu

>Are there constant rolling blackouts NI could face blackouts by 2024 due to coal plant shutdowns. new gas plants arent scheduled until 2026. > Is there a currency crisis the pound recently dipped under the dollar and has seen rampant instability due in part to the mismanagement and inception of brexit. > Are banks collapsing not yet. solvency is to a great extent maintained by london at present however brexit is currently ushering a slow-rolling disaster. jobs and investment are declining at such a rate that the UK had to manufacture a fresh fruit crisis to divert attention from the transit trade sector which by all indication had collapsed. > Is there a state of anarchy that lead to the deployment of the Military id hate to sound like a dead horse, but EU membership legislation largely kept the peace after the troubles. no real plan was in place to assure it didnt slide back into a sectarian nightmare after the collapse of EU membership, and whatever is being endorsed currently is tentative at best and approved without a lot of thought.

amluto 3y ago
> the pound recently dipped under the dollar and has seen rampant instability due in part to the mismanagement and inception of brexit. This is not rampant instability in my book: https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=5Y https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=5Y Try this on for size: https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=ARS&to=USD&view=10Y https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=ARS&to=USD&view=10Y
- snapplebobapple 3y ago
  Also, the power outages are a symptom of a disease afflicting the entire first world, not something NI specific. Politicians pushing policy that is forcing change faster than is economically wise to do so for politically fashionable reasons. It's the same exact crap here in Canada and it looks similar in many other first world spots.
  - amluto 3y ago
    As a Californian, I feel obligated to point out that: (a) this isn’t necessarily about environmental policy, and (b) speed of changes isn’t necessarily part of it. See https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000–2001_California_electricity_crisis https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000–2001_California_electri... I agree that a bunch of the regulatory pushes for clean energy seem to be poorly done. I would much rather see a carbon tax along with sensible regulatory changes to avoid excessive red tape when building new clean energy projects. (But even that could cause problems if the market fails to prioritize reliability — see the California situation above and the recent problems in Texas, both of which involved.) (Also, for Pete’s sake, what’s up with trading credits for not producing carbon dioxide? Just tax greenhouse gas emissions already — if you don’t emit them, you don’t pay the the tax, and if you do emit, then you just pay the tax instead of paying someone else to supposedly reduce emissions.)
    - snapplebobapple 3y ago
      The speed of change I was referring to was putting in policies that force decommissioning before the replacement is ready(and/or replacing with a generation mix that isn't compatible with reliable grid operation yet but this isn't applicable to this specific situation) and it is an environmental related politically fashionable policy in this case (and in Canada's case). In the comment I was referring to the specific problem is they decommissioned the coal plants by 2024 while the natural gas plants won't be ready till 2026. California is a really bad example because all their problems stem from environmental policy and the profit opportunities extremely bad environmental policy made possible. That place has it all. They have a legacy grid where they first tried to get rid of pollution that just moved most of the pollution just outside the state with large and semi unreliable power lines bringing the power back in. They had artificially low prices for consumer, which caused demand and reality to diverge. They had differential pricing at the import/export nodes that were ripe for abuse (that no other power grid did because it was obviously stupid and ripe for abuse). I am sure I am missing a bunch of stuff because it's been a long time since I looked at it, but CAISO is basically a story about how the path to hell is paved with good environmental intentions. I agree with you on the carbon tax thing as the better solution. I would caveat that agreement with making sure other government policies are not causing undue inelasticity in demand for hydrocarbons that would make a carbon tax not work except for at crippling levels (i.e. North American zoning that basically makes a car a requirement would have to change to drastically increase density and make public transit/cycling/walking a viable alternative). In general, increasing elasticity of demand will make a carbon tax more effective at a given level and there are probably lots of government policies that could be changed to make demand more elastic, the zoning stuff being the very low hanging fruit.
ploppyploppy 3y ago
The EUR is below parity with the Dollar. Heaps worse.
- tivert 3y ago
  > The EUR is below parity with the Dollar. Heaps worse. Apparently it was, but not anymore. It's $1.07 now: https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/EURUSD:CUR https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/EURUSD:CUR

amluto 3y ago

> the pound recently dipped under the dollar and has seen rampant instability due in part to the mismanagement and inception of brexit. This is not rampant instability in my book: https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=5Y https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=5Y Try this on for size: https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=ARS&to=USD&view=10Y https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=ARS&to=USD&view=10Y

snapplebobapple 3y ago
Also, the power outages are a symptom of a disease afflicting the entire first world, not something NI specific. Politicians pushing policy that is forcing change faster than is economically wise to do so for politically fashionable reasons. It's the same exact crap here in Canada and it looks similar in many other first world spots.
- amluto 3y ago
  As a Californian, I feel obligated to point out that: (a) this isn’t necessarily about environmental policy, and (b) speed of changes isn’t necessarily part of it. See https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000–2001_California_electricity_crisis https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000–2001_California_electri... I agree that a bunch of the regulatory pushes for clean energy seem to be poorly done. I would much rather see a carbon tax along with sensible regulatory changes to avoid excessive red tape when building new clean energy projects. (But even that could cause problems if the market fails to prioritize reliability — see the California situation above and the recent problems in Texas, both of which involved.) (Also, for Pete’s sake, what’s up with trading credits for not producing carbon dioxide? Just tax greenhouse gas emissions already — if you don’t emit them, you don’t pay the the tax, and if you do emit, then you just pay the tax instead of paying someone else to supposedly reduce emissions.)
  - snapplebobapple 3y ago
    The speed of change I was referring to was putting in policies that force decommissioning before the replacement is ready(and/or replacing with a generation mix that isn't compatible with reliable grid operation yet but this isn't applicable to this specific situation) and it is an environmental related politically fashionable policy in this case (and in Canada's case). In the comment I was referring to the specific problem is they decommissioned the coal plants by 2024 while the natural gas plants won't be ready till 2026. California is a really bad example because all their problems stem from environmental policy and the profit opportunities extremely bad environmental policy made possible. That place has it all. They have a legacy grid where they first tried to get rid of pollution that just moved most of the pollution just outside the state with large and semi unreliable power lines bringing the power back in. They had artificially low prices for consumer, which caused demand and reality to diverge. They had differential pricing at the import/export nodes that were ripe for abuse (that no other power grid did because it was obviously stupid and ripe for abuse). I am sure I am missing a bunch of stuff because it's been a long time since I looked at it, but CAISO is basically a story about how the path to hell is paved with good environmental intentions. I agree with you on the carbon tax thing as the better solution. I would caveat that agreement with making sure other government policies are not causing undue inelasticity in demand for hydrocarbons that would make a carbon tax not work except for at crippling levels (i.e. North American zoning that basically makes a car a requirement would have to change to drastically increase density and make public transit/cycling/walking a viable alternative). In general, increasing elasticity of demand will make a carbon tax more effective at a given level and there are probably lots of government policies that could be changed to make demand more elastic, the zoning stuff being the very low hanging fruit.

ploppyploppy 3y ago

The EUR is below parity with the Dollar. Heaps worse.

tivert 3y ago
> The EUR is below parity with the Dollar. Heaps worse. Apparently it was, but not anymore. It's $1.07 now: https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/EURUSD:CUR https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/EURUSD:CUR