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Does anyone really think the world mostly stop fossil fuel extraction? The political pain required in the short term is too high; the incentives to continue ext

Does anyone really think the world mostly stop fossil fuel extraction? The political pain required in the short term is too high; the incentives to continue extraction are too high. Sure, there will be some gains, in terms of transitioning to more renewable energy, but that will just mean more overall economic growth (more energy in the economy), as opposed to less extraction overall. In the U.S., for example, the upcoming election will be based on "inflation" more than anything else. In other words, short term economic gain is a primary determinant of policy. Maybe all of us should be pessimistic. Maybe more people should be rioting. Or at least, demanding real change.

hotpotamus 3y ago
The climate system is fiendishly complex, so even with all the modern computation power we have to throw at it, I don't think the scientists have a great understanding of the future that we're careening into, but they sure don't seem all that happy about it, do they? At some point you start looking at the climate science and the economics (hard to call that a science, but I think you're correct that fossil fuels are so deeply embedded as to be intractable) and you start to see two giant opposing forces that human civilization is caught between that may be the end of it. I also find it hard to believe that people can just go on living as normal and having children in the face of that, but I also wonder what happens as more and more people figure it out.
belorn 3y ago
Given that the EU define natural gas as green (mostly thanks to Germany and the green party), it seems fairly clear that fossil fuels are here to stay. There is not much political capital to riot or demand political change. The major discussion from the green movement during COP28 has been if the war between Israel and Palestine is more important.

hotpotamus 3y ago

The climate system is fiendishly complex, so even with all the modern computation power we have to throw at it, I don't think the scientists have a great understanding of the future that we're careening into, but they sure don't seem all that happy about it, do they? At some point you start looking at the climate science and the economics (hard to call that a science, but I think you're correct that fossil fuels are so deeply embedded as to be intractable) and you start to see two giant opposing forces that human civilization is caught between that may be the end of it. I also find it hard to believe that people can just go on living as normal and having children in the face of that, but I also wonder what happens as more and more people figure it out.

belorn 3y ago

Given that the EU define natural gas as green (mostly thanks to Germany and the green party), it seems fairly clear that fossil fuels are here to stay. There is not much political capital to riot or demand political change. The major discussion from the green movement during COP28 has been if the war between Israel and Palestine is more important.