Looks like 62 points better, which under the Elo model implies about 59/41 matchup (aka GPT-4-Turbo is about 59% chance to beat Claude on a random prompt). You

Looks like 62 points better, which under the Elo model implies about 59/41 matchup (aka GPT-4-Turbo is about 59% chance to beat Claude on a random prompt). You can look up an Elo probability calculator to plug in an Elo difference and see this number. For example plug in two Elo ratings here: https://sandhoefner.github.io/chess.html https://sandhoefner.github.io/chess.html - really only the difference between them matters. Btw the similarity of the numbers 59 and 62 here is coincidence, other differences won't be nearly the same as the probability.