3 ms·
Digging into things, I find that it all hinges on the World3 model. Looking at a Python implementation of the model[1] I found this dcfsn : float, optiona
by mikewarot 3y ago
Digging into things, I find that it all hinges on the World3 model.
Looking at a Python implementation of the model[1] I found this
dcfsn : float, optional
desired completed family size normal []. The default is 4.
This is clearly an abnormality, in and of itself. When you're living on a farm, or birth control isn't available, or are a member of certain groups, that number is effectively infinite. If you happened to live in the reign of Mao, it was 1.
Now, I assume there are many such nits to pick. I think the biggest limits to growth are the ERoI of fossil fuels, and the treatment of women and support for parenting in societies. Population crash is a real phenomenon in China, and most "developed" nations are somewhere on the curve, despite lifting an incredible portion of the world's population from crushing poverty, birth rates are falling.
Local change is about the only thing you can realistically have any effect on. Just try to pass on any knowledge and wisdom you can to others, especially with regard to repairing existing technology, and ways to work without it. As China goes offline in the next decade, and globalism collapses, we'll have a lot of jerry-rigging to get around the things we used to have in abundance.
[1] https://github.com/cvanwynsberghe/pyworld3/blob/main/pyworld3/population.py https://github.com/cvanwynsberghe/pyworld3/blob/main/pyworld...
- westcort 3y agoGreat comment and thank you for digging into the code!