4 ms·
Obviously, any original estimate for how much money and time it will take to create the aircraft should include a reasonable level of buffering to account for t
by humbledrone 14y ago
Obviously, any original estimate for how much money and time it will take to create the aircraft should include a reasonable level of buffering to account for the "known unknowns." Companies like Boeing and Lockheed aren't exactly newcomers to the aviation game, and I'm sure that they have extremely detailed statistics on how common this setback is, how much it costs on average, etc.
It's the same way in software -- when estimating how long a large project will take to complete, you have to assume that some things will go wrong. Maybe you have to track down a nasty bug in a third-party library, or you lose a team member, etc. All of this has to be considered based on its impact and likelihood as part of up-front estimation.
- hef19898 14y agoYes, the known unknows. Everybody knows about them, but strange enough we all seam to be ill-prepared for them. You just have to look up new aerospace developments of late: F-22, JSF, the Kiowa repalcement, the new tankers, A400M, NH90, Eurofighter, Rafale, B787, A380, B747-8, A350... you name it. Almost all of them were over budget, late and ran into serious technical and performance issues. Not all of them were due to design changes. And even if, when you know that certain changes are going to blow your development apart you just don't ask for them as a customer. A good counter example is the F-117, that one was, aparantly, in budget, on-time and did what it was supposed to do. My theory is that it's the grown bureaucracy that it messing it all up. In the F-117s development there was none since it was more than just top-secret, they took what was available and turned out good. I know that one example doesn't make a proof, but it's pretty cose for me.